ational Intelligence Daily
Monday
12
rsSYrs
POLANDi Stutlontfi Clash With Police
wish roliec'Jiiie* ow SauriJi;ruwoa-tJ HWB chM'tj ttronjr.lyforthe hj.-eh-retreats
for th* uintflT jraU; em arc good.
The Polish radio reported yesterday thatoutside the Lenin Shipyard and In tha city center resulted in injuries toeople,olice officers, and the arrest ofemonstrators.
primarily univrsitr and high school students. I
rumors that protests aqainst price increases would take place today at the shipyard.
Jwho recently visited Gdansk
Commenti Tho official report blamod US propaganda for inspiring tho youths, suggesting that they wore attempting to Join the international oommeiroratlon of "Solidarityather than protesting against the impending price hikes. The nest likely place foremonstration would be at the monument to tho workers killedhich is in front of the shipyard.
The regime is clearly worriedsuchcould bo the catalyst for widespread protests,has moved quickly to clasp down in Gdansk. proceedings have already begun againstorganisers, the curfew has been extended,linns disconnected, and private movement
This is apparently the first major violent Incident since the clash last December between security forces and minora in Silenia which left at least Sevan miners dead. It is further evidence that the Baltic coast and Silesia remnin trouble spots for the authorities, and they will be very cautious about lifting martial law restrictions there, f-
Meanwhile, Western press sources clam thatleader Walesa is BOW officially in to mod, ending his previous indeterminate status. If true, thisark of the regime's exasperation at its lack of progress in dealing with the union leader. |
--continued
12
CZT^ I
toay
Pope Johr. Paul II expressed gratitude forin support of Poland, and Western leaders participating In the Solidarity Day broadcast were united in calling for an end to martial law, freedom for detainees, and talks among the government, the Church, and Solidarity.
Polish and Soviet media condemned the "Let Poland Be Poland" broadcast as "interference in Poland's internal affairs" and derided it asHollywood"enior Soviet expert on Western affairs contended in an interview that the broadcast was intended to arouse "distrust of the (Polish) government" and "disturbance of tranquillity in that
Comment! Several of the Western leaders nxplicitly blamed the USSR for the crisis in Poland, and Canadian Prime Minister Trudeou considerably toughened hisof the martial law regime. The relatively small West European turnout for demonstrations, however, will probably be interpreted by Allied leadersack of Gentiment for additional economic sanctions at this time.
While criticising alleged US efforts atSoviets will seek to exploit criticism by somethat tke presenceumber of showdevalued the Solidarity DayPolish Government probably also hopes that theSolidarity Day can be reduced if Foreignin France at the invitation of the FrenchParty to attend its nationalableForeign Minloter Chcysson. Warsaw would use suchto show tnst diplomatic relations arousual despite Solidarity Day and Western attacksregime.
Grain Prospects Good
illiont winter grams were svwri-nrsx fall, an increase of more thanercentrop development prior to dormancy was excellent, and tho
cd
protective snowcover has so far prevented any significant winterkill. Although recent flooding in northern Poland destroyed some winter gralnf ields. most of the crop was left untouched.
Ccnmont:
>utr
the current oueiuuk. iui fuianuvinteT {JFalft crop--aboutercent of total grain production--is generally good. apid melt of the accumulation of heavy snow, however, could lead to additional flood danage- In any event, private farmers--vho produce overercent of the grain crop--still must be willing to sell grain to the state if the regime ia to meet basic food needs.
L2
ROMANIA: Debt Rescheduling
i.*iu-s,UW1Ii: tfju': rcsauccjivar-fent view 31
Discussions onart orbillion hard currency debt resume in London on Bucharest's financial needs this year6 billion, and it1 billion in The Romanians seem confident that thetheir needs can be covered by supplier credits.and IMF loans, and other sources.
Coecent: The negotiations promise to be difficult, with the bankers initially offering much less than Bucharest is requesting. Romania, moreover, probably has overestimated the amount It can borrow elsewhere and
thus has underestimated its needs.
bankers may not be as patient with Romaniahave been with Poland. They lack confidence inregime's ability to overcome economicto manage hard currency accounts. They alsoscured by the protracted negotiations withhave lower expectations that Western governmentsUSSR will provide aid to
Romania faces difficult times even if an accord is reached. Its export potential is weak, and mostimports have already been cut. Industrialgrowth slowedercent lastlowest rate since the immediate postwarwould slow further ii additional cuts an? required to save hard currency.
leMUary IVV2
INTRANATIONAL: Committee on Disarmament Meets
?hi iO- nation OonctPUM ulcam&wntigkt riwzeyts fori;'iocxt
:ill
The Committee is to provide recomnendations for the second Special Session on Disarmament of the UN General Assembly scheduled for Juno.
Comnent: The USSR and its allies will try toin Poland from arms control issues. Theytho usual array of unverifiable arms Moscow has alreadyropaganda western accusations concerning Soviet usoand biological
a ^spe-
The nonaligned states will continue to criticize the West, particularly the US and tho UK, for what they view as obstructionism. Mexico will take the lead in urging that the report to the UN meeting in Juneramework for comprehensive disarmamentific timetable and beginning with nuclear weapons
US allies may support, establishmentorking group toomprehensive nuclear test ban treaty, an expanded mandate for another working group to beginomprehensive chemical weapons ban treaty,est erman alternative to the nonaligned positionomp*ahensive Program of Disarmament. They are likely, howev o agree with US opposition to setting up ag jup to discuss arms control in outer space.
The allies want to make it clear that the Went is not primarily responsible for blocking progress toward arms control. They are concernedefusal by Washington to support their positive proposals willin additional criticism by the nonaligned nations, increase the pressure from arms control activists in their own nations to make more concessions, and give theropaganda advantage.
Although they will stand publicly with the US on most issues, many ofay break the western consensus on nuclear test ban negotiations and other issues. The USSR and the nonaligned group are aware of tho differences among the US and its allies over both goals and tactics and will try to exploit them.l
LEBANON: Increased Concern Over the Shia
.*in ^Ti'j" vvwipWMtol WJMfll UmcHPalestinian.
The clashes in the Shia-domlnated south pitted Amal militiamen against two Lebanese Communist organizations, Ama!.'s main rivals for recruitment. Pro-Iraqi Lebanese and Palestinian factions, with whom Amai has beensince tiie Iran-Iraq war broke out, also were invo'.ved
There were heavy exchanges in West Beirut in early January between /una:oalition of Communist and pro-Iraqi militiamen:asualties resulted. These clashes spread from the poorer Shia neighborhoods into the more prosperous Sunni area, prompting widespread criticism by moderate Sunnis and Shias alike cf thenumber of militiamen in the city and their inability to police themselves.
Comment: Although the flqhting in the southhave'd'irainishcdat ah-spunsoredworked out late last week, new exchanges areto break out soon.
The increasing occurrence of clashes involving the Anal movement, Lebanon's largest Shin orgonization, has given rise to fears, particularly among Sunnis. of tho Shia community's expanding and seemingly undisciplined political strength. Sunnis fear that their privileged position within Lebanon's Muslim community is eroding now that Lhe Shias have become the country's most populous sect. Several radical Sunni mi'.itias in Beirut recently announced the formationoint militia, in partefense against the Shias.I
Most Palestinian groups, particularly Fatah, try to slay out of disputes between Amal and other Lebanese factions because they want to twoid furtherLebanese Shias, many of whom resent the Palestinian presence in southern Lebanon. Fatah is uneasy about Aval's growing belligerence, however, and frequently provides political and military aid to rival Lebanese groups.r
SPECIAL ANALYSIS
SUDAN; Nimeiri Hangs On
airly ailitar jprwtt sesiw officers xsleolt foram-wnths, thf imposition Aiti{>n's ceonvnn
Sriuanvo xwvat Dhioh oovld bring dour, tha
likely
j,
gobcptwhtt.
Since November, when Nimeiri Initiated far-reachine .msreri'v measures to roach an agreement with the IMF and reassure foreign creditors, criticism of his handling of the economy has grown substantially. There has longhlino over the gradual decline in tho standard
of living^
Nineiri and Ills Opponents
An increase in the price of sugar by the government onecember toentative agreement with the IMF ledave of student dcr^nstrat.ons and the stagehowdown between Nimeiri and his military cr1I
The President relieved Abdel Hajidentioned most often as Nimeiri 's successor if he were forced from office-from his posts as First Vice President andMinister. Nimeiri alsoumber of other
I February l')82
senior officers, including the chief of staff, theof tho airborne lortun, and the commander of the
a coup attempt
Kh<ittouir<won ItIons of key importance in
Traditional opposition groups now appear to be The Musila Brotherhood is co-opted andAn oar Musi ia sect also ia on the politicalthe national "nionist Party i* in disarrayrecent death of its leader.
Nimeiri's room for maneuver with the military,has been considerably restricted. He can no longer rely on the Army as heavily as he has in the past.|^
Reported plans for an immediate increase in pay for middle and lower ranks probably would not improve his standing with the military. If future cormnodity shortages or price increases result in widespread public disorders, sentiment for hisamong those in the Army who supportedlikely to build quickly.
Moanting Economic Pressure
Sudan's foreign exchange situation is still tight. Foreign reserves are sufficient foreek of im-ports and access to foreign credits has dried up.|
-he aid donor*' meeting list week fell Short of producing5 million in balatce-of-payaents support needed to cover financial shortfalls anticipatedonors provided0 million in firm commitments and the possibility ofillion.
i Freruary 2
The IMF is demanding that commitment for theS million has to be in hand before it will finally0 million standby credit for Sudan. If the IMF now uses the shortfall to postpone action on its loan, the country will face import cuts that will affect essential food and fuels. In that event, Sudan would seek US intervention withund and also would turn to the US and Saudi Arabia for additional financial help.
Otii.lOOl<
If the IMF agreement is approved and the additional aid is found, immediate foreign exchange needs will ease, but the government will still face the task of imposing austerity nnasures that are part of the IMF agreement.
The scheduled hike in bread prices in April will be particularly risky. It could easilyepeat of thelast month that almost unseated Mimciri. i
Original document.
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