NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY

Created: 2/3/1982

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

C .af.al

National Intelligence Daily

Wednesday

32

ra

OR RELEASE

7

poland: unroll continues

ad&faksytijw'ran>;i

tems,dUcror rar'fit.tij. ai.'r

-jv-Vt: 'Xmiiaci ifntaliaU. c;<c4 <tiv<nn Wki zbcblj villtoaa/,'arie.i

solidarity underground press

western have recently seen copies ofnow solidarity publications, including athat claims toeekly publication. xesnionally done than earliero have boon produced by an underground press organization thut never went public during solidarity's heyday. i

corn*-fiti the appearanceore polishedseerrs an important moral victory forand is intended to signal the union'sto onqageengthy contest withexpanding underground pressajor partcampaign to enco-jrage passiveto raise the morale of the populace bythe union le active.

Insisted

ri.-rn>tv alitorationalwspa?er that he successfully appealed is or journalists ordered by the "verified

"veri fication'

RHJmBtir

committee, savirg about half those slated to be purged. He also claimed that Premier Jaruzelakireater degree ol editorial independence for the paper, which had been known for espousing liberal views prior to the imposition of martial law. The editor,was pessimistic about holding off the hardliners indefinitely

Comment: This incident demonstrates that moderates in the regime can at least temporarily check excesses committed by hardliners. Such reprieves do not necessarily open the door to liberalization, however, because those whose Jobs have been saved will probably exercisest-lr-restraint.

French and Polish QEficials To Meet

Foreign Minister Czyrek is in France to attend the national congress of the French Communist Party and will pt-cih.lbly meet French Foreign Minister Cheysson today. This is tho first high-level French contact with Warsaw since the imposition of martial law.

Comment! Czyrek was anxious for the meeting in"demonstrate that high-level diplomatic contacts are continuing despite Western criticism of the regime.

uespite tne meeting, pans ie unnKeiy sorter! ills attacks on the martial law government. Mitterrand wants to continue using events in Poland to embarrass the French Communist Party, whose timid response has isolated it from other French political parties and from major European Communist parties.|

2

The West Europeans, especially the French and West Germans, have asked the US to quicken the pace of its policymaking on outer space arms control in order toAlliance consultations on the subject. The AlLies worry that the Soviet draft treaty on outer space arncall of them be the only solid proposal tabled when the UN Committee on Disarmament takes up the issue late chis month. They also expect the issue to be debated this summer at the Special UH GeneralSession on Disarmament andeeting of the Committee on Oisarmament.

Most Allies are interested in consultations onweapons. The Netherlands also hopes thathold preliminary talks on spaced-besedsystems. The West Europeans recognize theproblems that an outer space armswould pose, and have asked for early USin NATO consultation* In order to sharpenthe issues.

Cor it: The Allies are disappointed at the lack of arms controld will use forthcoming NATO, EC. and "JN meetings to urge Washington to take the lead in workingnified strategy. The prospectS-Soviet antlsatellite agreement appeared fairly promising to many West European experts before the crisis in Afghanistan.

Tip runt

72

Ol'ATEMALA: Preelection Atmospherics

te*xrii fttiJiPn, ruling eoaliiiTK'csor-liGate, iconXatsia, but, mu?liticilk> rt d.

Hcccnton polls show that Guevara hasubstantial lead over Lhree civilian candidates, largely

n formor Defense Minister, was selected by President Lucasompromise military candidato.

Ma/io Sanaovai, leaae?opular rignrwing party.

Meanwhile, opposition candidates are charging thewith fraud and harassment, and two centrist parties arc considering withdrawing from the elections.

Comment i Sandoval also has complained of"ButTne" likely haseal with the government. He will probably not use his substantial paramilitary forces to contest the election results.

. .

3 I'ebiuary TO

liUryl.n.

UNITED ARAR EMIRATESUDAN; Possible New Aid

United Arab Emirate- officials indicateSudan with newBiJlion--i* tho Sudanese request "ondeconomic refonos. "

ire.lv if it is to secum this aid before Friday when tnowillillion loan for Sudan.ondition for the loan, the FundJ^ Sudan close1

Sudan was still at least SBS million short of

this goal after an aid donors' meeting last weckf-

Commenti Without the bilateral end IMF aid ifce^vere shortages and more econoc.cwith such assistance, ^wever implementationmeasures will bo difficult. |

TANZANIA: Opposition to Nyerore

SPECIAL ANALYSIS

U!>SP: Hard Currency Outlook

l cmta-irre:-

wfewj*oc. ^nt'J ii cA*Ckel'; cJctZ :hat bothcsr. cxrcotvr Ait-

y: .yrncwgyc-lami wld ecr>:mT".yihn

haw already stepped up gold sales

The Soviets also fi3ve increased their Sorrowing Irom Western banks and have boon seeking longer term credits.

In addition, the USSH appears to be rethinkingimport plans. Soviet trado officialshave been instructed not to place new orderselectronicsigh-prioritynext summer at the earliest. Some ordersparts and maintenance contracts also have

n.,i Trin'

If, as appears likely, the USSR raits tocurrent level of crude oil exports to the West,hard currency shortage is in store for the The only possible significant new source Of earnings Is theaturalipeline,will not come cr. stream6 at theanticipated annual net earnings from theS5 billion will not offset the expected drop infrom oil exports unless Moscow reduces suppliesto Easternpossible but politically

10

MT7 iv:

Other exports are likely to show little or norhe s. Ptoapecte for nonenerqy rawam poor because production andarc high. Exports of manufacture* probablyincrease much because of deficienciesuality

Receipts from arms sales, -ncluding payments for earlier deliveries, areillion

aubstantial increase uapears unlikely,

MDre UflleH run the risk of spoiling the markot.r

Credits Ciuclal

A stagnation or decline in hard currencymoan no increase In hard currency importsWest provides the necessary credits and Moscowthe rosultant major increase in ita hard If imports increase atearterms, indebtedness and debt servicealmost certainly reach an unacceptable level byOf the decade.

Debt would riseillion at present toillionS. and0 billion or morehe debt service ratio would be at least doublef Moscow funds some of tiie estimatedillion toear in imports Poland can no longer buy from the Kest, the Soviet debt would climb comnensurately.

The USSR Ll not likely to push hardtho limit that western creditors willMoscow probably will choose to cut backleast essential. | "j

This will require tough decisions beeauso most of the goods ipiportvd from the Hcst are important to suchorlty goals ao military-related production, food production, eneryy development, and higher technological and productivity levels for Soviet industry.[

February IW

Original document.

---

---