NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY

Created: 2/5/1982

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

National Intelligence Daily

Friday

52

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Y.-S APPROVED ECP RELEASE

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POLAND: Continuing Unrest

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Workersrakow on Tuesday conducted af-hour work stoppage to protest price incraasos instituted the previous day. |

Commenti Although it is unclear howstrikn was ended, such short job actions could be partlan by Solidarity to rebuild worker tclf-confidcnce and reestablish tha union's strength. Short strikes could temporarily frustrate oftorts by the regime to maintain control.

Student Unrest Increasing

Young people in secondary schools also appear to be cajght up in tha ferment. High school students in sevwral provinces have been distributing leaflet* and attempting to organize demonstrations) earlier this wwek hail the students at two Warsaw high schools attendedone day drossed in black.

Despite evidence of increasing opposition from young people, the government announced ye star day th.it moat universities will reopenMonday.

Comment: The authorities apparently believestudents on the campuses ratherhome. The regime is gambling that tightenedand the threat ot expulsion and possiblethe military will keep students in lino.

inn sac it i

The government still seem* to be moving with caution, however, because several technical schools linown foractivity apparently will not(Oopen. Unreal amongi. Imts is particularly difficult for the regime to deal with because martial law regulations do not permit Internment of anyone|

Pressure Trom Crodltots

Wcr.tern bankers are demanding for* money fromthey will conclude the much-delayed privateagreement They wantillion of overdue interest payr-enlsebruary. In addition. They also insist thatS4D0 million in interest duo in the lintefore the agreement fortakes effectApril.

Commenti Although the banks nay not declare default if Poland docs not make the payments, the tl.feat offorces the Pole* to attach high priority to interest payments to private banks in allocating their mmager hard currency funds.

Confiduncc Vote

raced with th* highuut unemployment since theMillion out of work in .January--theand Vice Democrats haveJplan. Schmidt called for tho vote tocharges that his govyXDJMtnt_is too dividedon the country's problems.

The vote culminates nix months of debilitating debate on economic policy that has threatened to bring down the coalition. The Social Democrats and Free Democrats have many differences on economic issues, and the weak economy left ther. Ir.ilo room for maneuver. |

The reluctant acquiescence of the rree Democrats in the employment proposal* desired by labor and many Socm. Democrats suggests thatyear-old coalition is in no immediate danger. |

USSR-LIBVA: Soviet PortSoviat helicopter carrier Leningrad

toningraa na*

ort call al TobruK, Libya.

.in

Tioroqc off the Kqypti

been in tho Mediterranean alnctr November but has spent most of coast.

CoTT^nt: The vistt. reflects the closer bilateral military "cooperation that hat developed between the two

countries in the past year.

USSR-POLAND: Soviet Hanking Tactics

Moscow in late December reportedly instructed Soviet-owned banks chartered -broad to createreserve accounts lo guardossible Polish default. The Poles owod those banks more0 million by midyear, but the Foreign Trade Bank of the USSR apparently assumed more0 million of this debt during the fall.

Comment- Whila the reported instruction may simply reflect concern over Western regulatory requirements, it also suggests Soviet pessimism about Poland's ability to resolve ita financial problems. The Foreign Tradepparent assumption or most of thedebt owed to thru Soviet-owned banks puts themtronger position

lsh default.

toosalbls Polli

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tenrbary IW

NtTIIKRLAXLi-TuRKLY: Aid Cutoff

Th* center-left coalition of Prime Ministerpposition to the Turkish nllittuyby postponing all economic and military aidpendinq "political developments" in thatthe post threo years, tho Dutch haveillion in low-interest loanstarfiuhters to the Turkish armedDutch Government has boon increasinglygiving aid to governments it considersvan Agt is mainly responding to pressure Socialise alllos and Dutch human rights groups,Democratic Party also is beginning tocountry's aid program.

Comment: The Hague almo mayanish scon-sored actionrfcey in the Cojncil of Europe's Human Sights Commission.

Nir.ESIA-CHAlJA: Oil Deliveries Halted

Nigeria reportedly has endod oil deliveries to Ghana until Accra pays its outstanding oiligh-level Ghanaian delegation plans loagos this weekend to discuss tlie matter.

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Comment: If Lagos sticks by its decision, radical Clements in Accra will b* likely to emcouregc Head of State Rawlings to turn to the Libyans for alternative supplies. They probably also will increase theircampaign aimed at making moderate African and tho OS sea penor ehm regime's problems.

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spl.cial analysis

COSTA RICA: Election Outlook

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Trio voting Hill take placeackdrop ofcrisis caused byeso administration's fiscal mismanagement and by dnpressod world coffee prices and high oil prices. Tho economy probably will not improve before the end of the year. Kceent Communist-led violent

strikes by banana workers couldarbinger

In addition, the doctorate has been alarmed byarms buildup and prosit reports of theof domestic and regional radicals in the Costa These events have stirredbut they aluu have heightened theof vulneiability.

The Candidates

The economic and political challenges havethe three major candidates, all of whom areanti-CossuniSL. Ex-President tenand: is thebut his limited political base giveschance of attracting significant

Former Foreign Minister Calderon is conservative on most foreign policy Issueshampion otmeasures that parallel politically unpopularuiuuiiiius. Although Calderon views this campaign

is

--continued Bam jamma*

i rrer-jary n

auri.il runore eorious challenge6e shouldhu undisputed leader of. the opposition.

Honqc's Policial!

As rh" oddo-on ravorito for months, f

hasurap on governlikj uy .uimnrj nn

'iiupres'sive shadow cabinetompetent team oi oco-

comic advisers.

economic policy aims at increasingproduction, primarily for export, and providing greater access to credit and foreign exchange. ow loan agreement with the IHF is crucial to strengthening domestic and foreign business confidence. This, however,

will require austerity measures sure to be unpopular

with the left wing of the National Liberation Party.Q

Foreign policy under Konge will be more consistently in line with US interests in tho region and less given to liiw surprises that have characiori2ed the Carazo Ono Key tenet probably willeneralof relations with Communist countries.T

Honge has taken an increasingly tougher line towuid Communist subversion in Central America and attempted to counter the COMsuniat propaganda effort in regional for ism.also has avoided following President Carazo'm lead by refusing to rule out ITS military assistance and hasthat he will rely on an OAS peace force to protect Costa Rica's boundaries In any Central American war.l

increased cooperation with the US and other Western countriesrawing beck from tho Caraio government's cultivation of Third World countries also are likely.

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Sen Jose probably will be more receptive to forcign--Qspcciallyinvestment and will place greater emphasis on economic, trade, and assistance issues within the Centralaribbean region.

Kongo's penchant for compromise politics andtradition of public sector spending willhis attempts to turn the economy around. HisLead probably will be challenged by seriousover fiscal policy before the inaugurationMay. This is likely to be playedgainstpressures that could give rise toand violence,

Costa Rica's small Communist party has ao faravoided Attempts to capitalize on the economicbecause it reportedly hopes to make major electoral gains in the legislative Assembly. These expectations, however, probably will be dashed by an aroused and fearful electorate. This will strengthen the hand of hardline elements who appear increasingly restive and ready to abandon more ptaijmatic courses.

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