ITALY: POLITICAL UPDATE

Created: 1/14/1982

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Itelyi Political Update

Ion* among tha tlv* oartlaa that aueportnl eovecnaene have baa* building In recant

, giving riee to speculation that atand an earlymayahead. Spadollnl'arrMinistership wae aaan by thaand tfaa Soclallata, th* two majortha governing coalition, as an

solution. It was cleat froa the beginning thattepubllcen fart, ceaaaandeercent of the electorate--would have little acooe to Inltlete pollclee on hia own. But fpadollnl haa done better In the Intervening months than expected, while ha haa carefully sought to cultivate the support of th* hey members of hi* oalition, he also ha* triad to Halt th* lnttuilon of coalition politic* Into th* working* of his office. In the broaderthi problem* Spedollnl face* raault both froa th* longstandinghe Christian Deatocrata and th* ocialists and froa Italy* troubled economy. Tb* more lamedlate pceeaurea on th* coalition, however, can b* traced to Boclallat party frusttatlon over parliament's rejectloo of Its candidate to tbe constitutional courtr the resurgence of terrorism and criticism of Interior Mlnlatar Rognonli aveata In Poland and disagreements over whether to proceed with the geeli and growing sentiment that theaor* far-teaching program than thla government, aa preaently conaltuted, can develop and eaecute.*

MBOiindu*, laguaated 1

t Kuioptan It wa*

Leader* of mil th*devoted

conelderable elnoe th* start of lha year-end holiday paflod to pondering tha tutor* ot th* Spadollnl jo..Tr..ni and to calculating bow current tension* ean b*o thalt advantage. While th* praaa ha*ew government crlal* followed by an early dissolution ot parliament could occuraayoat political leader* continue to treat th*gingerly, heaping In mind that Itallenlatocy eth* party thatcrlala- th* aeit he. are called to tbe polls.

oms Is following ewvelesewnte sore cloaely tha*ty Secretary settlao Cre.i. Craal haa long aaplreo to become Prise Mlnlatar. and fja recent ml. h* ha* been irking behind the "enee to'ip.dollnlTer.illeft it tVhte principal lleutenanta toehanceovernaent and national election* to the publicf. Thla has allowed hia. In theory, te maintain *om*m th* fray previa* hisr*at ahould It

" preaa, Craal bellevea that th*

Party's roforslet credential* are sowlrsly eatabllahel that th* voter* will reward th* Soclallata Im, PuaMng ipsdollnl's government over th* pr*clptce Isstsad of panlahlfvg the*. Indoed, Ceaat hope* that bringing speoollalenhence hiettorn* leader capsbl* otrogram thatto grip* vlth th* country'seeing It through.

for his part, Christlam Oemocrst leader rtccoll Is areulag

publiclyrisis st tala tlse slaplv will not produce a

government. In private, be i. greatlyhat

tall would trigger national elections before the

badly divided Cbtlatls* ttMocrat* hav* had tins to pull thesaelve* tog*tb*r.

Plooolllso ssaloma to ebors up hie own poeltloa wlthlsty. Be cam eapect to drew hereh criticism froa the left wlsg of ble party one* againhee*., lis receat comment* about reopening th*e**tlon- vet. almost cettalMy designed Is part with tame* dlealdeat* In mind. Tt.ae earn.were calculated also to actrake o* tbe socialists, tatement smd* no Motion of brlaglem tm*unlet* Isto tmebut Christieshop* that, reading between th*rail willebtle warning that* nothing eacred about the present governing

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In trylrva to decldatin* In ripe to nova

Creel any b* heavily Influenced by IMacty. Crail believe* that bia party elandsat tha nolle from Ua vranellna taking pise* aaonaovac Poland, at* lha aaao tine, ba la concernedadvantene my ba only tencorary and that It could turnbauittar ot tin* batota Coanunlet rattym of tha oountry'a neat abla polltlclane.eltuatloa within hia party and perhepe altlataly turn

thlaaa ta hia ndventeon.

tar11never and hia auppoitara ara preoccupied tor nowto eiplaln ttvalr position on Poland to tha party baaa. recent iUImim oneetlon,aadara hoped boththeir daaocratlc credeatlale with tha broaderand to avoid elluaatln* that part of thareaalne flraly wedded to hoecow.

Th* eocBMalqua'aic-lea of tha Soviet ayataa and Ita beothaodad bias* ot aoeoov foe development* In Poland haa thrownparty aupporteratata of eoafueloa. sfforte to avoid an Internal apllt have been complicated by the decision of Aliundeenaoec of the CentralULlalatto take tba laadarahlp to tail publicly lot Ita atand. die PCI etateaent on Poland none notreak In relatione with ftoecov, It alaoat certainly rapetaanta an Ideological breeli and while It aay ba aoae (lata before the atateaeate' fall Lapirit catla Italy and abroad la understood. It la elear that thlnaa will be vary different whan thailea, baaad on pasterllnuuar probably canotaal apllt within bia pafty'e ranks, bat It aay ba aeveral aoatbn before car rant teaaloaa caa ba laid to rant. Inanantlavs, aerllaaoer will nope to avoid early

spadollnl baa attenuated te tbaart hia antaouaUtsthat ba will mot tee lea and pledntrta to carry bintba floor of peillaaant. Mthooeh preaeuia on thacontinuea toa still hopes that thetheir alllea will ahrlnh before tba (lehe aaaoclatndt*qli>*dowaote ot oor11dervce. epadollal willIn kta detaralaatlon te reaaln In office bypolla ahovinq etrorvq public approval Of In tba end>eeet aay lla la

soclallet President Pertlni'e oppoaltlonovernnant crlela and early elnotlons. holla tba Soolallate aay ba able to brlnej

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