SPECIAL ANALYSIS
POLAND: Increasing Resistance
Theimposing martial lav two months ago-still has failed to make oerioue progress in addressing Poland'sand eoonomio problems. Its concern to maintain control, in foot, appears to be trapping itpiral of repression and resiat-onoe, MflQ
Resistance has grown since the beginning of February and now includes extensive distribution of pamphlets/ increased public demonstrations, and silent marches. There also have been acts of violence by individuals, and the authorities have accused Solidarity extremists of plotting terrorist attacks.
Recent acts of defianceomb that was discovered on Saturday close to party headquarters in Lubinirebomb that was hurledonument in Warsaw over the weekend. orker in Warsaw yesterday blew himself up whileomb.
The protests are directed not only at martial law, but also et such diverse actions by the regime as raising prices and removing religious symbolschoolroom. Solidarity activists have helpeu organize some of the protests, but thus far there have been no strikes.
University and high school students haveeading role In the two major demonstrations in Gdansk and Poznan. The participation of women and children in somo of the protests, as in Swidnlk, apparently_ the regime to hold back on the use of foroo.
Growing Frustrations
Tho Military Council continues to bold the reins of power, but its members are increasingly frustrated
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in their efforts to reform the chaotic and inefficient government bureaucracies. Senior military menxpect toeading political role indefinitely.
The party is wracked by dissension at the top and is unable to exert much influence at the grass roots. Conservatives pressingroader purge reportedly are focusing on several of Premier Jaruzelski's moderate advisers but not on Jaruzelski himself. They know that the Premier continues to enjoy the support of the senior military leadership, and that to try to remove him against his will would risk dividingseriously the very forces needed to retain control, afl H
The increased resistance, however, may reinforce the strong position of the police and security forces. Some in these services will argue that demonstrations must be repressed forcefully to discourage others, and they might even stage provocations in order to demonstrate their willingnoss to crack down. VBJnB
The Church appears increasingly divided, and the prospectsore open confrontation with the regime are increasing. Some clerics believe that the Church win be the next target for repression. Anumbcr want more vigorous opposition to martial law.
Spokesmen for the regime have publicly criticized those in the Church involved in -politicalncreased harassment of the Church would escalate public protests. Intensify repression, and strengthen hardliners in the regime.
Outlook
Prospects are for an even greater level ofto martial lew. Although the use of force may be effective in the short run, the avowed purpose of martialsuppression of politicalbe tranapoaed into suppression of the Polish populace. This risks undermining the wlllingnees ofegjoe in the nlUtory to participaterackdown.
!.diti0n'mee again have the
success
enjoin nave element of surprise that was so important in the of the initial implementation of martini law. If Polish forces are inadequate, Moscow wlllfeel compelled to send Soviet troops to restore order.
Tho Sovlots probably are seriously concerned by the spreading resistance in Poland and its diverse forms. While they have focused since the imposition of martial law on the longer term problems within the Polish party and economy, Moscow's attention is again being forced back to the inability of the Polish Government tohighly visible demonstrations of rssistance. ^ ^
The Soviets will proas the Jaruzelski regime to employ all meane at its disposal to suppress major displays of resistance quickly. If Moscow believes the situation threatens to get out of hand. It will again raise the prospeat of military Intervention. In any event, the survival and spread of resistance to martialthe prospect of more to come in thethat Poland will not onlyontinuing preoccupation for tho Soviets, but contrary to its hopes in December, Hob-cow still will be faced with the unfinished business of restoring control '
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