SPECIAL ANALYSIS
POLANDi Agricultural Probl
Th* martial law regime ha* not yet formulated an agricultural policy that will gain it the support of private farmers and ensure adequate food supplies. Ths government ha* alternated threats of compulsory deliveries with offers of increased procurement prices ana other incentives. Farmers should begin to make decisions soon about their production for this year, and the regime must move quickly if it hopes to encourage them to increase output. TjHfA
One of tho regime's main challenges continues to be satisfying the population's food demands. Before the imposition of martial law, meat procurements from private farmers did not cover rationing requirements, tBaasV
Grain procurements were only one-third of state needs, even though Poland had an above-average grain crop last year. The regime was importing meat and grain to help cover the gap, but still failed at times to meet its rationing commitments. eesee|
Threats to Farmers
A drop in procurements following the imposition of martial law prompted threats of making deliveries The government wanted to maintain foodsupplies to blunt popular reaction to martial Law.
Initially, however, tho threats did not have the intended effect. Somemay have thought collectivization would follow forcedreportedly killed livestock and burled food supplies to avoid confiscation. *aBBBBj
Moderates* in the regime seem to have successfully argued against collectivization. The governmentrealised that the rapid elimination of the private
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provides aboutercent of agricultural production andorcent of total state procurement!)would severely disrupt food supplies end provoke prolonged resistance among farmers.
nonetheless, the regime has kept pressure on the farmers. For the first time, it is threatening legal action if farmers do not fulfill grain contracts signed with the stste. The government also is refusing to sell farmers seeds and fertilizers unless they have made sufficient grain sales to the state.
The increase in early January in prices ofand tractors probably deepened farmers' mistrust, even though the regime has promised to compensate by raising prices paid for agricultural goods when consumer prices are raised in February. The new prices are part of an effort toore realistic value onsupplies.
Positive Measures
The government also has offered inducements,to extend credit to farmers for purchase of supplies and to make any future increases in livestock and grain procurement prices retroactive to November. In addition, it is offering uppercent premium for the timely fulfillment of grain contracts. Farmers who deliver noncontracted grain will receive in payment "grain bonds-redeemablet prices in effect at that time, plua Interest.
The regime has attempted to show itB support offarmers by submitting to parliament some measures introduced before martial law. These include bills to liberalize farm inheritance and pensions and to increase the maximum allowable farm size. ff|
The martial law regime's combination of threats and promises has yielded mixed results. The state has
odd-February.
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III December, the government had to rely on Soviet meat deliveries to fill one-fourth of its rationing Although the regime subsequently claimed that meat procurements havenough to cover completely its lower rationing commitments in January, the increases may reflect initial distress slaughtering of chickens because of fodder shortaqes or the sale of animals long overdue for slaughter.
Threats by the regime also may have helped keep up livestock procurements. Military operations groups circulating recently in the countryside apparently put pressure on farmers to fill their contracts,
Outlook
The regime's reassurance will not easily dispel the farmers' apprehensions. Many farmers mayait-and-see attitude, and those who are nervous about the future of private agriculture may cut backto coyer only the needs of their families and close friends. | B|
Passive resistance by private farmers wouldcompound the regime's agricultural problems. In any case, the existing shortages of seeds, fertilisers, tractor spare parts, and pesticides will limit crop yields The prospect of future downturns will puton the regime to use more forceful methods or tqbe more sensitive to the farmers' needs and concerns.
Historically, the Polish farmer has responded more to inducements than threats. The old formula of raising procurement prices to incroase production may notoday because of the lack of consumer goods to buy. Wf/g,
If the retail price reform does bring stability to the marketplace and an increase in the amount of goods in the countryside, however, the regime may be able to cajole some farmers into selling at least part of the reduced quantities that are produced this year. If not, the regime out ofcould resort to forced deliveries, which could move it toward adopting other coercivo measures.
Original document.
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