KPKCIAL ANALYSES
Martial Law
Archbishop Glempo view Jaruzelskiederate who probably ought, to be supported against hardliners. The Church, which appears divided on this issue, cannot go too far in putting pressure onor supporting Jaruzelski without risking its own credibility.
The economy is the key variable, and productionto decline because of lingering passive resistance among workers, bad weather, and raw material shortages aggravated by Western sanctions. Delay in formulating policy may only deepen the economic slide.
The regime's policy of using threats andto induce private farmers to step up deliveries has had mixed results. Reduced meat rations this month are only being met with stopgap Soviet shipments. The government intends to proceed with massive price hikes in early February but has increased the partiallywage hikes In theeading offof worker resentment.
Looking Ahead
Concetns about control probably will prompt the government to keep basic martial law restrictions in effect beyond spring, despite Jaruzeiski's ambiguous promise in his speech on Monday to ease restrictions by the end of February. Although many of the participating Polish military units have resumed normal training, the civilian police remain primarily responsible fororder.
The popular mood has soured now that the Initial shock of martial law has worn off. This increoseo the likelihood of atrikes or other forms of unrest in the near future., Tho regimo, however, will use whatever force Is necessary to suppress reaietance.
This mayiable strategy for the short term, but it carries the risk of touching off larger scale unrest that will be more difficult to control. It also delays further the political accommodation that must be reached if the economy Is to recover.
Original document.
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