POLAND: LEADERSHIP DIFFERENCES

Created: 1/23/1982

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that onlydifferences exietwithiiiTheTiilitary CouncilSalvation between Premier Jaruzelski and other, na.clonaliatic Poles, and those more responsive to the Soviets. ?tie sourca implied that.the Council is generally-more conservative than the party leadership and claimed that it 'would proceed with the destruction of Solidarity and perhaps the removal of party liberals-

The source assarted that the Politburo can be divided itxtb liberal, moderate, and hardline groups. He also stated that, the liberals and the moderateslim majOricy. ffl sVaVaVmmt

Cojrnent: The Military Council probably is more unified"than the partyactor that helps it maintain control. The Council, however, may not be as homogenous as the source maintain*. BJH

Altbough greater unity within the Council would seem to give it an advantage in establishing long-term policies, Poland's military leaders nave been trained to defer to the party and may still'do eo despite their unhappinaas with mistakes mauu by the party since If the Politburo le deadlocked on setting policies the Council may feel compelled to take the lead. This would give jarutolnkl considerable leeway In setting policy.

aooaryRai

believes the overall situation in the steel town of Nowain neighboringbuilding up to an "explosion .

Comment: These reports, which are based onsources, jibe with public and private concerns Church leaders have voiced about the possibility of violence. SuctJ dissatisfaction also may sharpenbetweenn the regime who favor easing some martial Aaw. restrictionsay of lessening tensions andargue that strict controls are the only way of maintaining order. BJ

Economic Straj nc

Wlesiawlose adviser to Jaruzelski, recently told Hungarian, .radio that he fears spontaneous protests, to the.pVicn increases planned for February. Ho blafteti;Western sanctions' for the deterioration in the economy over' the/past two weeks. Another Polish official stated on'Thursday that Western eancttone are prompting Poland to reduce its economic dependence on the west and to expand trade with Communist and develop-ing oounijrirb.

Commenti Gornicki's stotement is the first public odmiseionoT the regime's concern about public reaction to price hikes. His remarks probably ere part of anort to encourage increased aid from CBMA countries. I

flPtB to blame sanctions for current problems seems to exaggerate their impact. Current shortages probably stem more from import cutbacks in1 and the virtual halt of commerce during the early stages of martial law. Sanctions willjrf.-cn.or impact in cooing months.

Oisoredlting Walesa

An anonyrous pamphlet mailed from Paris to anof the International Labor Organization in Geneva alleges that Solidarity leader Walesalongtime

police spy" who deliberately sabotaged the

workers' rcoveraent Poland.

attributes the pamphlet to Soviet disinformation efforts in western Europe.

Comment: The pamphlet could represent anSoviet or Polish authorities to sow confusionsupporters in the West, and, as wordin Polsnd as well. The document probably willmuch impact, but the effort could indicateand Polish authorities are losing hopecan be persuaded to associate himself with

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