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SPECIAL ANALYSIS
POLAND: Looking Ahead
The government of Premier Jaruzelski in the weeks and montho ahead will reduce the restrictions of the martial law regime, but it will continue to emphasise rebuilding the Communiet Party,control, and imposing austerity measures. It will at some pointreform" program, buthe 'iw of what seemed possible before martial law. This combination of polieiee mayeconomio activity, but it will not reform the political and economic system, and Poland probably ie headed toward another arieis over the longer term. fi^B
If Solidarity bad been able to stop all work in Poland by staging an effective general strike after the imposition of martial law, or if large-scale violence had resulted,orceful solution to Poland's economic and political problems would have failed, and his Warsaw Pact allies probably would have finished the job for him. Having undertakenigh-risk gamble that has worked so far, Jaruzelski will not be swayed from pursuing his repressive policies until he iscon-vxneed that the need for them has disappeared.^ ^
The principal objectives of the regime in thefuture will be to purge the party bymaller, more disciplined organization; to screenin the government, media, and industry to assure their reliabilityi and to impluoont someore realistic priceare ossential to any reconstruction of the economy. I
Need To_ Ease Restrictions
Jaruzelski alsoeed to relax martial law. Civilian communications need to be restored if commerce is to revive. The Army cannot be kept dispersed through' out the country in winter without damaging its morale and effectiveness.
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The government probably will want to releasetooint of contention with thethe Catholic Church. These relaxations willas signseturn to normalcy and asgestures to the
The Premier recognized that reforms were necessary long before he concluded that martial law was essential to ease pressures from Moscow and to restore domestic order. He probably will eventually keep his promise to preserve "the positive gains" of the pastonthsrogram ofut these will be designed to. avoid eroding regime control over decisionmaking.
Jaruzelski probably will create new institutions for consulting the public and for giving workers moreoice In running factories, in determining benefits, and in decisions on local social and economic issues. He will also make changes in the economic management system. None of these changes will result in the kind of decentralization or self-management demanded byy in negotiations with the government in November.
Passive Resistance Likely
This program of mixing repression with limitedalong with soviet economic assistarce, because of its Inherent contradictions and inadoclacies, isto heighten tensions in the longer cm, if not the short. It will not convince the public chat the martial law authorities deserve its active cooperation or that. the program will lead to vigorous economic growth.
onsequence, passive worker resistance will persist and, when travel and communications restrictions are relaxed. Solidarity will be able to rebuild more of its infrastructure. Worker militants and dissidentprobably will revive such activities as an underground press and "flying" universities. Forced to balance most trade with the West and unable to offer credible incentives to workers and farmers, thewill find the economy still suffering from supply
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dislocations, an increasingly antiquated technology, and low worker productivity. ebt .moratorium may be declared, or default may ^
The potential will remain for local strikes to flare up from time to time and for some violence. Even if popular resistance diminishes and some Solidaritycollaborate with the regime, however, Jaruzelski's program is likely to come to be seenailure by the public, the party and government, and the Soviets, when this occurs, as it has following both previous Polish efforts at reform beginning6 andhe domestic and foreign pressures foi change will build again, and Poland will have another crisis. H
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