USSR: POTENTIAL FOR UNREST RELATED TO POLAND

Created: 12/30/1981

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

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SPECIAL ANALYSIS

USSRi Potential for Unrest Related to Poland

The Soviet leaderehip mi eager to bring an and to tha Hb-sralisationn Poland partly beoausu of apprehension about epercussions in ths 0SSJ>. Tha Soviet population's acceptance ofuthority is too strong and its sympathy for the Polos too weak, however, to give grounds for expecting ths aurrent repression in Poland to create serious problems of internal control for the Soviet leadership. There has been an increase in sporadic laborver ths last several years, but most of it was prompted by danestia conditions. *anmt

Despite the eppearance of some Soviet dissident documents expressing support for Polishncehere has been no general spread of dissent or major attempts to coordinate activities with dissidents elsewhere In Eastern Europe, ae happened after the Helsinki Pinal Act was signed. Soviet dissidents also are less likely to stage demonstrations over an "internal solution" to the Polish crisis, in which the Soviet regime is not militarily involved, than they were over the Soviet invasion of Czeehos]ovekia Saeaa*

Soviet Intellectuals, who' ere interested more In human rights than economic issues, probably would be more inclined than workers to protest the currentintudent demonstration, possibly

already taken

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The Soviet working clans does not, however,trong tradition of activism, and disaffected workers have not formed alliances with Soviet intellectual Most leaders of the small unofficial trade that sprang up In the late W'js are now in prison.

Western Soviet Republics

The historical ties between the westsrn republics and Eastern Europe, the population's greater access to Information from Poland, the strength of the Catholic Church, and ressntment of Russian rule make the Baltic and Ukrainian states more sensitive than the rsst of the Soviet Union to events in Poland. "aaaV

Estonia has experienced the most unrest in recent months. Several large student demonstrations arid labor strikes took place in the fall0 in the republic's two major cities. Subsequently, Soviet authoritiesurged Pinnish television to cut back on coverage of events in Poland, eeafek

Leaflets circulated last fall in several Estonian cities calledeneral strikeecember, but it never took place. Although the activity apparently was caused mainly by consumer and nationalist grievances, the Polish example evidentlyontributing influence,

Lithuania is overwhelmingly Catholic, andubstantial Polish minority, but there has been no evidence of recent disturoances, perhaps because the government has been moreattentive to local sensitivities there than In Estonia. afffpV

There have been rumors of scattered Polish-related -disturbances in the predominantly Catholic western Ukraine sinceut historical animositythe Ukrainians and the Poles reduces the likelihood of sympathetic protest activity In much of the region. There apparently was an increase in dissident activity in the area during the "Prague Spring"

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Outlook

Soviet citizens are primarily concerned about the -economic slowdown end the accompanying dearth of consumer goods. At the beginning of the 'localization process In Poland, some Soviets, dlssatisfled with theof their own government's economic policies, professed admiration of the Polish workers for demanding improved living and working conditions- fmmms,

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As the Polish reform movement progressed,sympathy for the Poles was reduced by aperception that the USSR was helping to pay forin Poland, satisfying the demands ofat the expense of Soviet consumers. Manydisdainful of theoles, believingdiscipline, arid they may now feel that martial

Original document.

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