Created: 3/19/1982

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Italy: Political Update

Prim* rtinieter eovernxrnC ao* eojcyetf j jiueaer of jjvoJ{cjty ttcc^m" in rvcent

vee*atoe reoou* ot Ceoo-rel, toe

of otlodfous llj^ 4td of O Soviet ouOeorioe Io tne Cu2f tAe eri^inj jroficp- 'oela? 0

coalition rMiit as IneitpeiH jf, X* IlfcelyMln in officefto carietiaq ^cr-t? hoftf encJrloco Apr-fl, tne poeeieilito tnetr ana* I

tho ieoot of vhloh ir tfie aud'eescmcnt oo tfi oooif agolf Thm codgfooo -l iJ.vji! co

bo followed eyt rootner oseecio? of tfio leoferr of coo coalition parties to coontdtr tftehe prooonereulo *

CteOplt* recent poll* which Show SpadOllnJ po&ttffir Italy'*popular prlM ainiatets, hist? the future of his governaent rertaino the continuing duel botveon the Christian Oeoocrots snd the Socialists. The tvo portlet originally turned to Spadolini only because they wete unaole to aoreoandidate from aoonq their outi ranks. To their chagrin, Spadolini has rcaul nod in office longer and proved effective than they anticipated.

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n JVC 2.

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experiment-oreand -re no-

BBttinoheo been uo.ble to

l" M" lection?}

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until early nay. tbeir chsneea ol bringing about an auction before lata fall -ill bo reduced coodcersbly.

The Comsuolsts. totcurrently preoccupied

.lib internalaised by their dispute with Moscow over Found. The polemics do not mm likely to leadowln relations between tha Italian snd Soviet parties, but the, have mmimthui widened th. Ideological gap. tjarty ladder tening-cr and his eaaoclstec have boon surprised Jy dcqree ot opposition at th* party base to their stand, and there are no- Indications that party leaders arc anxious to (Ind ways to reassure the rank and Ills withoutoy froa their position^

r of favorable to callthe wilstsonstruct

Like the Christian Democrats, the Italian Consunista retain rira>ly opposed to an early election, (caring that under circumstances they too woulderious setback. But. -hlle theh Hoacow has created problems -ith the Co-ocMst rank end It sea alsoarge Italy's political elite to vie* tbe PCIight. Berlinguer has tskso th* opportunity Socialists to cork with the Cosaaunlsts to gorernment of the left." tep In this direction Is prematura, hjHi ag.eed toumber of Joint study groupslors possible cooperation -Ith the Comsmnlati on specific policies.

the weeks ahead are likely to ace continued Jockeying auong tha three aajor parties, bul Prime Minister Spsdollnl'a government should last at least until the beginning of My. I"ew party leader and deciding policy on alliances -ith other parties, the coating Christian Democratic congress -ill be pssslng Judgment on tbe current governing formula. Particularly hard bargaining lies ahead for tha Socialists and tha Christian Peaocrata. If either party concludes that tha other Is acting in bad faith, each will be tempted to consider an alternative working arrangement with tha Comounlsti.

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Original document.

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