Created: 6/21/1982

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The martial law regime continues to show no interest in making major concessions to the Church or Solidarity but may be lookingfor other gestures to give an impressioneturn to normal. I

The authorities remain committed to maintaining their physical control of the situation at all costs. The demonstrations last week, although smaller than those in May, probably underscored the need for tight controls. The regime realizes that its repressive measures have intimidated some workers and that some Solidarity leaders are talking of deferring action until the fall, but it also knows others are more defiant than ever.

ftie^Bwderateadviaer to Premier Jaruzelski recentlyH .na regime will continue its repressive policy and let time and economic deprivation wear down the Inclination to resist. Disgruntloment in the lower ranks of the military does not seem to threaten the government's ability to maintain control in the face of the current level of unrest, aemma

Jaruzelski, meanwhile, has consolidated his position by removing controversial political figures from both moderate and hardline camps. His main opponent, Stefan Olszowski, seems intent on quietly building support in the hope of eventually becoming party leader.

In the past few months, the role of the military in running the country has grown, and party functionaries are increasingly frustrated at their exclusion. The bickering between the two groups will prolong theand inaction in the policymaking bureaucracy.

Other Political Problems

The regime is not likely to give seriousto releasing Lech Walesa or toormal dialoguo with him or Solidarity. To do either, Jaruzelski would first have to do battle with his conservative colleagues in the leadership. f|



Release seems moreisk than the regime isto take, even if Walesa agreed to strict conditions. Rumors of his imminent release may be the work of mod-orates trying to force the governmentrade more to their liking or seeking to unHorinine new plans by hardliners, including the official abolition of Solidarity

Many leaders in the Church and underground Solidarity activists are lookingisit by the Pope in August to^tu^eaJ* the political st.<iemate

|| They believe that massive public gatherings during the visit could demonstrate the extent of antipathy toward the regime and force the authorities to be more conciliatory. Some Solidarity leaders, who areby the arrests of activists after the demonstrations last month, hope the visit will spur resistance activities

The regime, however, is not likely to change course as the resultapal visit. Many in the government believe thatisit would encourage opposition activity, and the chances probably are only even that the complicated negotiations over the trip will succeed. Any additional disturbances, whether the result of genuine opposition or provocatione, could be the pretext forthe visit.M

The Economy

The leadership has at least temporarily halted the decline in industriallevels of the. Shortages of Western imports and the regime's inability to motivate an unhappy populace still block any substantial progress toward recovery and could prompt conciliatory gestures toward the public and the West.

CEMA countries, beset by their own economic problems, have extended only about half as much assistance to Poland in the first charter of this year as Some Polish economic exports maintain publicly thet the East could replace less thanercent of industrial materialsfrom the West. MA


Jaruzelski's consumer policies have had mixed results. Higher prices have made food more readily available, but workers are disgruntledecline in living standards of aboutercent. Moreover, lower income workers and pensioners are herd pressed to afford meat and some basic foodstuffs, while higher income workers areannoyed over shortages of manufactured consumer goods. sw^|


Economic problems may force Jaruzelski to relax martial law restrictions somewhat and release additional internees, perhaps before national day onuly. The Premier also mayapal visit would improve his image in the West. *fl ft

Jaruzelski probably is not prepared to abolish martial law soon. The authorities believe tight controls are needed to carry the country through tough economic times ahead, seal

The USSR has made it clear that it considers the maintenance of order essential both for rebuilding the party and for improving Poland's economic performance.

letf or0DablY to not regard Poland as stable enough at this point to justify lifting martial law or allowinq Walesa any significant role. 11

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