Created: 5/7/1982

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are notiolent confrontation, because they realize they would lose. Instead, they are lookingonger term rebuilding process and hope periodically to demonstrate their strength in order eventually to force concessions. easeee^

The Church will be in an increasingly difficult position. It will not abandon its efforts to prevent bloodshed and to prod the regime into concessions, but its leaders also will fear that their pleas for calm will alienate many Catholics. Opposition forces will continue to use the Churchallying point for their activities, which In turn almost certainly will lead to more criticism by the regime,

Regime's Response

The demonstrations will vindicate those in the rogime who have argued that martial law restrictions were eased too quickly. It also will weaken the resolve of those who have argued for some genuine steps toward

Premier Jaruzelski is likely to movearder line. He still commands the support of the military. The party, including leading conservative Stefan Olszowskl, Is still too weak, dispirited, and ineffective to challenge

Jaruzelski's most difficult task will be to control the extreme conservatives in the party and the Army. If they gain sufficient stronath to force more purges in the universities or the official abolition of Solidarity, many of the restraints that havekept popular tempere in check will have been removed.

The Soviets

The recent demonstrations are unlikely to havethe Soviets, whoso public commentaries repeatedly have acknowledged that resistanceroblem and that martial law will bo necessary to preserve order for


some time to come. Moscow wilt view the suppression of the disturbances as welcome confirmation of Jaruzelski's determination to maintain order and,esult, is unlikely to show any increased enthusiasm for his rivals.


The widening gulf has brought Poland closer to the pointopular explosion could occur. inimum, the increasing social activism and the regime's toughhave increased the prospects for additional violent clashes, ttj

The civilian police,0 special riot-trained and experienced troops backed upegular and reserve police, should be able to maintain physical control, if the situation warrants, thewill not hesitate to call on the Army. If this occurs, Poland will become locked inycle of repression and resistance.

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