PAKISTAN: POPULATION PROBLEMS AND POLITICAL STABILITY

Created: 11/1/1982

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.Pakistan:

Population Problems

and Political Stability^^

APPROVED FOR RELEAb-

.

Pakistan:

Population, Problems and Political Stability!

Fbii paper hai been prepared byiHHHHaVl re of Near Eut-Souih Aaii Aaalyiii.yte.<Mr-Mcd tc

coorduuicd -aiih the Directorate of Operation* and the NiiIcmI Ire'liience CoilOCllMB

OedMeiflTir'

" .

proWems will continue to work against effort* by the Pakistani Governmentchieve national integration and toditicslly noble and economically prosperous nation through tbe end of the century.

Population growth, with or wlihouf. the presence of the Afghan refugees, will continue high andillion by the end of the century. Rapid growth will offtet government cfforti to improve social and economic conditions ind could increase alienation from centralauthority.

National, provincial, and city governmcnts will be unable to cope with the problems of uncontrolled rapid urban growth. Rural migrant! wilt continue to flood the cities, which will experience further deterioration in infrastructure and services. Agitation by coalition* of urban interest groups could again reach reglme-lhrestentng proportion* at it did prior to (he fall of Presidents Ayob Khan9 and Bhutto

Intcrprovincial antagonisms, which have plagued every gomnmcnt tince independence, will be intensified as on ever larger population competeshare of already limited government services. Punjabi domination of the federal government tad the armed forces will continue to exacerbate deep cultural and ethnic divisions among the provincial peoples.

Theillion Afghan refugees in Pakistan will increase pressure to settle outside the camps as their stay lengthens and prospects dim for an early return to Afghanistan. The Pakistani economy and society will be severely taxed to absorb (hem into (he mainstream of Pakistani life, particularly if they move out of the frontier arras inio the more heavily populated and ethnically unrelated provinces of Punjab and Sihd. We do noturther substantial refugee influx from Afghanistan, eitheresult of (he war oresult of direct Soviet policy. If thereew wave of refugees, however, we believe that failure of the international aid organizations, heavily funded by ihe United States, to effectively accommodate them could increase US-Pakistani tsnsicn!.

major contribution! lo the Pakiitani economy from rcmluanee. ofillion Paklmnl worker* overicai (now nclling more thenillion yearly)continuee threatened by uncertainly In ihc iob market In the Middle Exit Return of the worker, would reduceile! pen of Pabuan'i foretjn etxhinrr. earnjuji. at well ai further ilnia Ihe already orertoadtd oomeiix job mrkei.

We do not expect any of itute dcrpacrapSk force.e Ike toie camtolot repiactnuot of Ihe 2ia rcftme. We bcJicve nuuad Uat itc buildup of dcrrxcraphic praiurca will increase fruiiratloni ihreufhoul Pakistani lockty thai could trarnlale into periods of aocial and .In lurn. could inowball into wider anilrejirrx dcrrwntlratKiu with isrioui political implication! for tbe Zia re.ime or in tuccciiori

Pakistan: Population Problems and Political Stabllil

sf relatively

Pakistan has experienced exceptional demographic, soclil.and poKircal lurbalcKC in the IS years since il obtained Independence- The icccssioa of iheing to form Bangladesh1 retailed tn the Ion of more ihsn half of lie country's eldreas. and fee the second lime la less thanean.Bob1 consiiiuied Pakistan had to sun over. Ethnic and liejuutic dinertaces have long divided ike people of the regioe,eriodically erupted inw political violence, and have made the budding ofa nose of nitlenal Mettiity ai timet appear impassible. Major refugee miirationsind irwreeenUy9 have had lastlni social and political effects. Labor migration to ihe Middle East, involving hundreds of thousands of workers since lie, has already affectedtructural and mar accelerate social change in the future ta increasing naoberaicepsrous workers return (set figure

RaplJ Population Crowth;Tfte Bottom line We believe that the causes of Pakiuao's explosive populationbirth ratesapid deeltae in deathbe sustained aad will transitu into hiab growili a: kasi through the end of the century. Total population as of1 miltien, including aaillion Afghan refugees, accordingS Ceotus Bercau eitimau.Tbe Ceuus Bureau expects2 growth raleercent to decline slightlyercent over the nextean and ibe tout popatation toillion by thehe Bureau estimate* that, even if all the refugees were io returnAfghanistaa immediately, the Patasuni population -cold2 million by the end of the cenivry (figure 31

m

The projected addition ofillion people annnQr to Pakistan's population duringill, in our judgment, overwhelm government efforts to secure, the support of the people by raislm their social and economic levelbe Censusprojection that Ibe uedcMS age gretip will remain at the existing high level ef aboutercent of the wtal populationciwrts ihat the

, '

toe ecrditiceicvcii

Pakuian's Fiftk Five-Yeardmits that, bscatase the needs of the rapidly growing pop* la lice continue so outstrip raawete, less than half the postillion receaVex the basks ef education and health care as meauued by an overall literacy rote of onlyerceol, organired health covinge for somewhat less thanercent,afe water supply forererm of Pakistanpeople. (Atxwding to five-year plan statistics, the situation is particularly bad in ruraliteracy rate ofercent, health coverage forerotat, and potable water supply forercent) Limited resources to meet the cxpones-tUB/ growing needs will Increasingly Strain Ihe ability of tbe government to respond adequately. In our view, pervasive unrest caused by thesewill be exploited by dUaldeni j

Pakistan's failure to convince couples to have fewer ebtfcrtn or toamily planning pragrnm acccjubleajorityignificant drop in tkt population growth rate through tbe end of ihis eenttry. Aeecrdirig to US Census Bureau estimates, fertility win decline from2hildren per womanat this decline will have Ittle impact on this century's growth rate and, in our judgment, will make no difference in theef social and political problems. Pakistani and US copulation specialists have found, bated on tertil-liy surreys conducted periodically2hatears of family planning programs have biotiiSt aboutaxgible reduction in fertility rates. AfartCity study revealed thatercent of womm of ehildbearinj age used t

coi-ndftluf

Paklaian: Population0 lo MAO

Figure <l

P.ilsian: Population of Mejer03

in Third Wecld countriesodoriftil, where substantial fertility redactions hatihow thai both vigorous support from the; of governmenl aad ttttvlvcrnent of people it the giut rooti to pint ltd manage outreach prcgrarai are rsstsiisl foriiicccuful family planirinf ceojitm. Neither condition pi mils ii Pakistan. Ui'dl fa<-lliag ctungei occur in ihe attitudes of both officials and the population, we do not believe ttil programs aiarniiy plaenlng have much chance of swccci

of ihe Cities: Tha Drturt Ilr-derho< Fed by the inflow of rvral migrants, we cipeel arewtft of the cities to cerrtlnueapid annual pace of. percent, the avcraie rate over the last two decades, at leaate believe thai depressed tosditicas in the countryside

will tcntiaue to provide the Impetus for Urge-late etodas to the cltlet. As bed at condition) may be In the cities, dcraofata aad reports by knuwl-cclttt'e observers iodicaie thai they ate worse in the

f

Tablet

Pakistan: PupiiFidenelected Van

a ftrfrice

AnnrtlI'f.

GraathSUu

IMJIiMIl

ISM

US UCmo. ISM.

ffM frWtretaatltrragordnt ttdhm. .ai Jo.f- It* Hit of fatally Ubt TMl jlf >

'ajtaxnmiihaeSlsi. -d i Is* unci)

and arc act likely io tci bcuer:i ana* educational opportunities artand housing and social services arc cvca more Iaadegiiatc. Even to, wc believe ihai ice mote easily mobilized urban masses_ccnMituie ihe greater threat io political i'.abil.

Pakistani Government officials are candid In their( look for the futareof the cities and io their auesirnenti of theability to bring about realccording to Pakistani newjpipart, the Punjab and Stnd provincial governorsetcd ihe acute and multiplying problems targe ciiiea raceesult of the eontinulag influx of rural people and the natural iacreast of the urban population; all existing services ire under tremendous pressure, and many Western observers believe thatas iraniport. electricity, sanitation, and wateran near the breaking point. Editorial* in Karachi and Lahore newspapers characterise the problems with language satch as "dcprcitingly awesome" and apeak of the "misery ltd squalor found In Iheermanent failure of ihe urban scene

Wc celine ifiai national aid local urban dee'epment icbemes prepoxed in the Fifth Flve-Vear Plan and bydireelhe* are inadequate to address the magnitude of urban infrastructure problems and the plight of slum dwellers. Tn, do, however,erception among urban people of federalederal directive to provincial governmeais so step up improvements in slum arens by granting property rirhts to slum residents occupying public lands has been reported prominently ia newspapers to hive the personal backing of Prcsidtat Zia. While provincial governments report thai thousands of slum dwellers have tcccived title to their land, the presenceillion slum dwellers in Karachi alone and the history of unkept promises by political parlies,and bureaucrats to resolve this longstanding problem make it unlikely ia out view (hit Zia -ill be ate toiccomplish bis j

Gt-en the concentrations ol people suffering common problems, we expect rapid growth ef the cities to contribute to Ike ureases of urban fife thai, in torn.

fjtafiflnitil

on

JMtiiapali,

herd hriCorU noVa ave mtrrortd in Karwrhl. MIum'i lorttu ciiy aud only pori. At InJrpriidrir il burn intoImiuni dYaWiifroe-mm of0 iharr fm ihr onrmrlamlKI mffordedb, ui ImdnU'iit andtommtr. tadmvwik*x- -ha.

aiarfarr "imflrd i* ikorttm in rill*

enlett and tm kamkrrmrd drref er nrf.otal imca-on" lo atei wiih lit promlfimK

rr-rrar oforeV ropulinicm andertnu at ill urban poamlailoa Wr rilimoit thai aii JW.UM) ftrrom mil braddtdtmy ytar btitrn fMJ1M. ecW onr-lbird'aflhti* "il/ it miiranii, larttty unitilltdandllllitraie. Si /tW

7JIiHilttoaatmai will Hit In Kara-

mi enillion by

illiontlllan ptriontilk Iht artragtfaaiilyaf ai iu mm hrim in ant at iwo room. Starts SO nrritm a/ llmm dwHIm art gtniral Itborrn. oner ami/nuiltttd.0as. io,i tt ttlftrnflortdMtxHtmmu-ppU.

Onlr/orn iaffttm badttmamtoriatO0 ioai per day. wai lollttied and diifOHd of Wrdonat heller* Mar ibett umtri bet tern afffr.ria$l/ txtemttd

< Conimuilni lime II long dad'attl art vveii'ondtd. run liirealarly. and art loo few inio lent ihr population

iraniJate into potiidal icii'iimhrcai io iht rciim. Urban mterwan-ona.

aloei amindorac of pouoali mtm tiagci. tact ttJfe tmorugaofl

TW mm art abo thebaiikcrocjid for Plkitiaa'i tthnie arattpt It ithat taeyeratini gadeitrirtj diiiiuu and ethaic tooii'jct. Hit-tone intipotnlet and rtnibtet. tnbai and reilonal iii. and intriaariihroaih Iketmotphern of Karachi. Itlaatabod, and Lahore. We bctlcvc thai the cheued ttnitowfrom rapid totiji and economic change ire preteni even in amaUer cltlet. in pellicular the fovinclil ctplisauf

Quetu and fVtaai-a'. which hare been trantformed from quiet bactmicn irio bournbe ac-tril refugee.

Oarn lhat ihc greaicti potc-itlal forlaaaaMkr. hca -tttaa tiMaaerpopulaicd aad aanWctJh; pr.mniol Mil of the fear LtrftKahore. Faaulabad. tad matii tidal tfcotal rtopalaitoa la. drntoraritJona and riou thai kdh* fall of Priradanti Aptb Ktaa ia IM*ZuUiUr Ah Bfi.tualirad inet Urban In (treat grotipt rrrircicnlisa; the lever and mHUIc clauu -ere allied under ogentiUon nanlta to being aboui ihc down fall ofKhan.

Aesong them were students, leathers, organised In-ddiirul norten, menial service rank) fromcepirimcnts. and rural migrants living in iluinhese tame claim were mobiliicd in ihe overthrow of Btiuiloclghi ycari liter, buiiais lime they wurc linkedighly religious Meoicay (oiiercd by Islamic fundamentalist paniesJ^^H

Tarbuknce in these large cities continues to occur under Zia's Martial Lawagitation sod teacher aad labor unionalthough it it not yet of the magnitude or at organised as the disturbances ia therior to the downfall of Bhutto. We believe, however, thai the government's inability to improve social and economic cosdiiioei probably will ultimately lead to the forma* lion of antiregimc coalitions among the interest

iter pcWieal

percent and hive doubled their populttivai over thee believe that the governments of these imiller cities will soon add strident demands to those of toe larger urban gcnrnmenis for increased services and development aid. Growing aliens licit from govern meat could develop as their populations see their needs squeezed out by theressures brought to bear by the larger t

ii to ft net it

SJM

PiovtncliJ Rivalries: Tbe Setich for Ninons! Identity Provincialism continues to be the hallmark of Pnfci-stinlhared devotion to Islam, stressed by President Zia in his Islomtzsilea policies, has not overcome ihe problems of ethnic, lir.gaistic. sodrivalries lhal divide the poople ef the foure expect these divisions to continue to frastrate central government aims lofc-sitta sense national Identity through0

reported in World Bank surveys throughoutnd. In the Pakistani press, and in ike official five-year plans, link increase in the standard of living hat occurred in iheears sinceThere eiiil is an eieess of tabor relative to available jobe, and opportunities (or advancement through education are limited. The educatedmostly young men concentrated in ibe cities,ottntially volatile group that wc believe could be easily mobtliacd to vent their frustration on the establishment

Wi opeci that rapid growth in smellerhenomenon that began in, will further auantcnt the stress put on the national government by urban governments barely able to cone wiih their growing problems. The Fifth Five-Year Plan says Itltlc about the sometimes spectacular growth in these cities, concentrating Its development plans Instead en services for the four largest metropolises, (Two urban areas in theinion range. Peshawar and Oup-anwala, have annual growth rateso S

ceW gait mdy oa PiiIkmit theo'tli ceVMudof He ntHiiiinai dtiamid aMkiK ctHital of U* Mil anil iM aduniUntt pthtani cl lit bit 10

Sjt^cvid (hit itefa {tvti

in* tan* fumli unlienlUu wars tntnprDrtd Uret la loir yiui

nly* ltdbi

iuhm Car nil tuHiawd UWI Uw innhs tat4 |wii|'

All observers agree thai ihe minoriiy Siadhii. Baluchi, and Paihluni lesent the more numerous Punjabis and Iheir domination of ibe Army tod ibe central govtrnrnanihe Paajabls pretesttheir sacrifloas st the lima of partition fiocn India give then; the aulnorily to coatirol tbe faiMaal govern-mcnt. Studies of lha INnjahi po*e* hue by US seeolsn snigeat further ihaiat ccriaider Iheeopks arc "backward- and need sircng contra' and direction an order ie bocosaa "uw" Paiitismi The icholars caaJas that Ibe paoptc ef lac other three pretences reseat swell ktseaarsikiai. believe that iheir cartartt are tsUeaitascd. aadn.-sacB af ike ceaeraJ gewranxnt nuo the affairs en or. bssd net charge gewisment tteaprti en thei' foe scperatiiaB oryhree provinces have plagued every centre!since partition and remain, in eur view, ananger to the potlllcal liability at* the country.

'NaicMinc laurSua.M iW

niliamtty tie ham of ilaiiMIl |Ntint thai |iit ih< ii iaam at ton;mjwai. bit til 'mi (xoJhi il<iU

danliut itnw

mm

Pak'tiitt: Prorltcial Soci'tolitical Profllct

PunjabIs thtmostpopntoutprovince witb an titimoitd ii million people. It Is olio thi mou dt'ilowtt and eirrts ihr fcatett detrte ol political Influent* on theiveaiiteay. The Pun/obi .in'ke'Candatblrrrdi domnoat foutmta Ia molt gotrnmeaiot decniot-matlnm processes. Fimjaki lotletf is meet <n. Influenced by til lent aitoeietloa Win ihe Hindu'"- . if mare egalitarian precepts of tilam. Punjabi sotial uruc

IWI Il rtnStrdt* the rich farmlands of the pro^HCt

he landed gentry mho own item. Landhvdt rim power through hitsbp and potron<ntm networks.

Slnd: The poiiticoi. social, end tconomte problimt of Sind ate moled in iheamlei that shaped the province el ihe time ofan's tadrpeitdinie Severn! million rtfuteti from India ImtthOJiri) fled lo Send, intlndintonthi and other artan centers, nod iiOf prater wextih. edneatloa. ami economic eipertiu. gained control of tbe private sector from tht iadlgenons Stndhls. Few Sindhls pra/ltrd from theirif the new fail-nant Government, lndhls nlll believe that oil tide's are atom lo overwhelm Ihem even though ike, comprise obcwirrtrni offUnm prtonj) watteeretnt are ntahaprsercent rathbx.e:he ntajarlty ofSlndhtt are either

poor or inpovertiked pro ten ti under tbe doml-nailon of feudal landlord!.

North Weil Frontier Province (NWFPt Out of theninriljillion people In the NWFP the Puihtan irtoesmen artapenor. ml-thovgh the pronnte Iso imrroJ other ethnic groups. Fashions ore divided Into many diittntt tribal until,radlilon of blood ftudt tad

Sourer: Information from US and Pakistani scholars

iKtrMhal warfare. Molt Pashiuns lire tn at'i-cultural vlllagii tn the tented areas, while an) million ramedi and itmlnoniadi lire tn Iheregions of Ibedministered Tribal Area. tFATA* la tbe so-called protected arm aftba FATA thntmeramemi has estaaHibed aettssead* economic ar-eioamtt pro-tram Since thi Sorter invasion of Afghanistan, the pace af thli development bos Increased. Thr anpro-ttcied areat. whin tribal law rules atone, are rapidly diminishing

The govrrameni hat. since ihe earl, daps af'ecrulttdlarjraf Pathtani Into :ht Arm/ and Into braceamctioa Otlpttt efforts at itiegrtiion. howrtte. Fashion leaden hat> calleduihtan homeland to Ineludt fellow iribetmen in Afghanistan. With the ImpoiiUan of the htitrain regime in Kabul aad tht flight of moreillion Afghan Pwhlaia lata tht NWFP. bower, leyaltltt htva at Itait temporarily iwunp to ihe Pakistan Government.

flilnhhnuii llin ii ifatmtb antes who eanaprtae ahalf al thewite* aoiwieuMa largt minority, and Pnnjablioercent oftmlftudal

political lyiltm that cierdlei admialuraMw.nd social authority ever ihe clans The tribes are inipitioni of one another,cuitici. and

neau -Independent end proiinnal Outlook ihai

hru into eonfrot latum with ihe central fo*-ervrnt Lamg-hrard colli for autonomy bat been muted by Frtndtm Zia's less itrldem handling of Balack canetrns than ihai ofefore him. and by lAe ipettt' Of iWet rfOOHr an ihtlr deoritee ft Afghontiian.

ami

Figure 5

Pakistan: Nailonol ind Protinclal Populations for Selected Yens

1IM

ii tnauii fom

till |0

tularin

is's Islnmiratioa programeans to unify1 ccuntry comprisedthnic groups In dilTettfil mni of political ind tocial devefopmensBjj

We believe Mat the nmnondw" reseatraeni toward ibe Panjalti-dooiinaKd gover.iment hu bceri exacerbated ueder ZJe't Manlal Lo- Administrationhich poliiieat parties have been banned and efccubn* tadclmilcly postponed. The JSO-rnernber Federal Ad-visory Council all or whose members ire appointed by ihe it esind whcec sessions ire held only ai hitoes notoittical voice Con

perceived gevtremtat domination by Punjabis is bore* Ml by Ihe facts: an7 icwrnment survey shows that S3 pereeat of thehil servants ire from Punjab, while onlyercent are fromercent from NWFP.ercent 'tern Baluchistan.ercent of loveinrceni cmpioycea did not respoadhehe Army is even more heavily0 US Embassy tepsct estimates aboutercent of Army penonne; is Punjabi,ercent Puhtuo,ereeat Bahich and StndAl. Tbe officer corps, according to Western in: -its.irens; central government as

' At ilt jtiiiM iiiiimii Uii il<(

PimMi I* Km eMI mMhKlu.lt/ Ha imp itcir anr.uit uw Hiturr >rd iiiDii tic mrtwlikvWuh inS hiMua in iidmiiotiHU ui lonranin JcOi.

NmDuIeu. Ilemiro-itia lain ttcanatcr fUajaM lORiimgii

la our view, government actions against relatively moderate minority political leaden, even though ihey hid In Uie past critidicd the government and called fcr elections and are therefore ceeuidered to beed tbe frostraiVjrj so close to the surface of Bliuch and Pushtan political coMctOusness, For ex-apple, even though the ban on political meetings is sometimes overlooked by theeeting In2 of the Executive Ccmsaiitee of the Baltics- and Pushtun-based National Democratic Party in Punjab wa* broken up eta orders of the Punjab Oder nor. Three respected leaders of the piny were expelled from Punjab, andecce were airesicd, according to newspaper iceoanti

President Zia's policy of promoting economic and (octal development lit Baluchistan and theVu so-called laggingfoster nfliice.ilhas not gotten off the around, and it may even

ifjdtatlof^"

confilun-Til

provincial (cnuou. io our view. Sifdhis charge thai their needs ire being ntiicctcd to the bcncrii of the two It" do doped prclncci Given the geographic dispersion cr* ihc population ol BarUchiiua and the NWFP. Zit'iprofrimi for acrictiliaril aid. water resource dc-tHcmcM. educational (acildtev aad hceUt care sjsicra will be ctpciuivc we expect that prrar-cs) will at slew, that ibe pr-rufiiiott of these pfooaces wis coatawc to charge atftcet. and Ural pobixal activuiiJl com masv for greater a

Thettcidfaai refusitof ell Pikltuni governments, including (he Zia administration, to granto any of ibe proiiecei or even to raeci minority demands for greater rcpnieniaiion in their provincial governments continue! to fuel the political passions of the minorities- Zia gtautd amnetty7 to tribal lea dot who had beca ia rebclitoa under Bhutto In the hope that tint wuukl produce cnlsi and augment lava mr to the (Oveinritai Batpdid ncehaig to uia't rarcn-iBCia. aroaanr grab, aad lira ui bad coot axes to place Ftntiaaaa as key adrrtutatt^airre posts in all rtrovincit aa weB as kt coat toplan and miliary pti.iieai The rausoriiiet, acranfcng to provintlal leoeV a. arm thatall-ficd Candida tea are not given adequate cansiikraini for these job* and thai autonomy it the only wit to gain control over thorown areas, While Zia has managed toaifocre believe that the enderlying unreilhriat to

Afghan Refugees: Aa Added Burdea

We eipeci that (be Afghan refugees willroblem of lacreaaaii ooanpartiiyrowing threat to Pakistan's aiiemaj tubflity throng horn tieWehat the sheer aire of the refafeelargetl hi thestrain Use gtsrcnttstcnt't abilityomrrofiic the rtfeaject as trell at itsnithru; to poiitleal ttabiliirYlhe US Caaaat hVcat. rstiiaatett thai Uleteitlkn refugees in Pakistan as of. bated on thelaeiBeri of rtfuicci registered by the United Nation) Mian Commjetoner for Refuted

9 nod ihc end oflint of Ji.COOnd ihc ritinuicd numberihi and dcoihi otcarrlng in the refugee papula lion. Tlte Ctaiui huicm iku-cch that the rcfugco population -illlDlonIS and

ii milliontsuminf, ihai no additional

refugees will arrive or be ropii tilled afior

While US and iricrtuiKwal obtervtrs agree thii Pitman's international prcuiic has been eaihaaced by lu acceptance of the refugees aM by iu wilatgnrss ia share ua btttiudan for them, ihc cconcm* cout have been high The gen erauirrato its itaniiace coati far IPIMI at siiiaad above ant tvondedttrrjiq-ii: relief orgi-tntioa* for IM2 oflbce.

Most refugees arc Puhtaa tribcimtn who,to local and ni.ionil Pakistani trurcea, have bemrotheri by ihe Pliniaai Push turnthe NWFP aad Balachttiia. and as Matlim brothersneed by all Pntlitsrua. Dcspttt these ethnic ties, tmcrnmcnt author-1say lhat prcsrrratioi. of public order is their grtaiett concern la Ihe two voiatae tribalere nearly all refugees rciidc.fficials hare rapuded only om lignlflcaai diiitrt) anco imolulnx iocali and refugtcs: tail June mareundred acre killed ia ml at. in fighting In

1anuhat-atiaaum un afmln-ai

pajaatjai ruaacatira amaun dinti irnai

ilk bTiiHT .ttlm fi'misi. kumbittrni it failaah matar- ifirtaa taaa.aajjl-aataaaoiariltalr ittl

tt; ir^r

(dbo aami aaliaa tn ltah rra- uka li faoiair.

IS ,'ruitarm iaa.atafaatar h

tnaj ra-ataataaa bltaufmli in

ill iin.iaara.alai> W i fill

ruunrara ammtitimm (sniv cm lunai

ujm NHHl taaa MWtminn itaa iliafflml wPtum iaaiii. twtainaw ill ajtrruarfiu-ial ma viiei nanainlniai ia is-ahlnuu at iminti naum tulairi ri jinn; ii (kill aaa inii-irtmaararattni lar

Kurtun Agency ihiiinvolved Afghan refugees. Officii ts fcit tout even minor disagreements between refugee? an) ihc local popublten ot between rival refugee liioupi couk) leadit (cm of increasinglyincidents, accordingS Embassy rtportiag.

ih^fl which u

concerned; ccld te ci'piMcd byponsored agents.adapted pwcetiVc mcaium:

- bee-nwdeto't|

Refugee camp* hue born deliberately situated away from more populous centers.

Rcfsgcc areni arc rigorously rolketi

Grazing, aa'.cr. and hind righti hive been carefully defiled betneca local) and refugee).

Where resentment toward refugee aid has been vocal, local inhabitant) lure been granted aid corn*ith that ghee, to ther reait-lutio* ha* been rnjcj" by the goverorneat to tbe aggrieved i

Although Islamabad ntm necessarily devote rnoit ol In refugee management retourco to immediateew olTiciab and other prominent Pakistanis Have speculated on the social and economic ramifVcn-itons for both refugees aed Pakistani of an citonded or perrrKincci refugee stay. They fear the economic burden of continued support and ciproi concern over the abibiy of Pakistan to absorb peacefully and productivelyarge foreign rxculatloo. Wo believe thatolution t> reached iaia the neat few yean, the increased demands of the refugees will nut enormous pressures on the btlancc lhat the government strives to maintainbaste core for the Afghans and tbe needs of its own population, much of which is no better off ma tonally than the refogees.urther largewhich we do notbelieve that support from both the Pakistani Government and internationalcan probably preservecalm ever the oeit two or three years. Beyond that (Into frame, however. Pakistan in our view wite faced with pressures to Integrate at least scene of the refugees into Pakistani scc^iyHM

Even thoughhas had Ihc painful cinericncc of integrating, amid great social chaos, large numbers of refugees, first from lathiat aad then from Bangladesh in II. w* believeepetition of isea events would roect with both social and petitita! ewtnlec According to both Wcssrra and PakboarJ Cticrvers. the N'tt ces. already is reaching th* utaratiof poi-iiirmiaatabac land iradabi* for icf.gce cargo Relocuo: ro'ugec) are being aserad from cwarcrc-dcd border regions so more remote aad nsertaunglyUedi. Some camps anayhave to be opened inny from Pwshtun elbatic areas. Ahhough government officiala say thatould be acceptableanjabis on the basis of Islamic lias,elie* ikat ethnic, cultural, and linguistic differences between Pushtuni and Puajabia would produte iirai/ed relit kins or even open vlo-

Wc cipcci entry of refugee) into tbe economic main stream so occur wltb accelerating fri^uency as ihc refugees' stay ItnglMM. Pakistan ofTicisIt reporta unaf Afghan* who brought goods or ciptul will item have already entered leWacagll irii'ipor jiee cri sites la tbe NWFP. ai wan aath* ttikta aa* towttaiodi air* lili ma had.hat thena) itou-aaad tatakg las Sjsdhat*lthough apparttttlv highly vSnbae. lam been absorbed into the ecoaomy Bat the abttsrsstion of large numbers ofostly uneducated fir men or noauds. Into the already over Burdened economy would present the govtrnmeaear more tcriout challenge, as our i

Short-tarns Benefits, a*

Temporary labor emigration to the MuJdle East hu substantial short-term benefit) for Pakistan but, in our judgment,hreat to ccoaecnic and social liability over the long iu Theillion workers ovemcaa representercent of

FMBIH

the toisl laboraborrelievesprcMurct on Ihc dorncsiic laboi market thai, accordingfficial Pakaianl elan, can employ effi-cicntli- only abovt half of ill dipblt mileorker mij-itioB it described in economic Cevcop-mem litcraiarc at weil aitome Pakiauci cffkiili tadBacreeessafetyrawtifumbers of-orkerv the fcmc-oycc. or tat tocOIrted away from toe domestic teenc. Wc believe that mi ihc ahort ternscancoy to ihn assumption but that, in the lent term, lie roots of labor atiubilliy reside in the domestic; labor force, wits theercent of "orken who do not reap the bencfiu of uvertcis

i migrants ptrsonill*

n

The flow of remittance! from miirani wain, rising fromillion. to more thanillionccordiaat to official data, hai ndcd the Pik. stani etoaoniu'it rrcc nenitv ie (cvc/Mienv decisions to ntaijaaekr* ctodut In rclaiivc terrna,enMtuaon tttrrnaUf aic cecalcut It)mperiitct do not include large sl-j. pointer anotherillion otrordinf. to twists by Icctltif ht horne by mifranji personalty or sent thr cue Ii id -jll.cu: miMlei

Accordiroiurret- conducitd by the Pakistan Intlitate of Dcictcpmcni economics, oannual ci -nines of Pakiilanl workers in the Middle Easteatlyore thaa ihe* would have earned in Pikjtin Th* survey estimates, thairope worker null ileal itaatfllaliatatho. ihca ait laid coaawcacsnd jnwaia entyllperceot In. Vfl eovernment hascne Into productive iavcattrtcau We believe, er. that the government underciiimiiei innconomic impact. Their purchase of consumer goods

mayruicly Channel fundi into productiveasscllctt ofthctc turns tcintcst o- increase ihsu even consumption, thereby rccyclinst tbe worker's fundsihe i

Dcssic an cnerall eiccu of libor la ihe domestic labor fceee. Work! Hani repent ihew that shortages thai bfJK Ocvcopol in same caiticneietail of Use Tjtftaiioa have leiarccd Pi tana's ceceasatnic it-teacataacaLrom rccraatsotni ago-Ocs. skilled and aperrcaved fetttral laborer) arc mere likely lo cnngraic Dan the unskilled. World Bankaeilysjthti tiiaborers' places in ihe domestic work fore* have been taken by less skilled er. acrioni, which hasrop in densest* retMuctrriiy Vocational training sehctnei hare so far_faiWd to fill Ihc gap. according to itu World

.wortciib.

In our view, the Pakistan; Government lotinsufficient hint-lorn ptannirg to meet Ihe social and cctmoinic problem) thai will arise when theast toll boom rods. Labor Ministry olTicials, who Believe that the overicai demand tot Pakistani hbor will remitseac taroagb, cantiaattriit on annisi aid rearaUtuti the flow. Wc an not ccruia that the eetnand will rem airAlthoughbailee thai hftfdlc Eait labor needs win continue, Pakistanimt> face locrcatin* com-petition for jobs from wtrkers from Eastorld Baak migraihHi study, morcovtr.rand dtvc(opine in famr of snccUliicd and profetsional la barhe cipcitt of ihc nenipccialrit) and aatkilkC aa Uiddk Ear. oeaeaapfncni projects roovcewf so. th* casport^iiiet for erajgraiion by ihe aontcena'-red andmay decline before tie cad of iM decade This development woild hurt Pakistan's economy byworker rcmitlatcct. Il would also ihtow ihe hoik of ihe overseas workers, back on ihc IIi'prepared domestic labor mart

ills* wwtm Ii bawd an nm> Out

S irittoi wa-fcari * -id. I

a Una in of aertcri OaMnura liter nut umt.Ttf iirnt

caiC'jciod ty ill rii inno. Ecentmici. oiimtid law. IStccJ'nRIa tf Ut awurs Ml in Sue" Arabialie UnllM Arabtn Hiahrain. Qalsr. anl OniriflB

Wc ctpect thai social rroblcnt) will intensify ai increasing numbers of mgrants return home with money, new cipecicnces,higher cipoctations. The

..l

mmm

b

earned abroad can move the returned migrans into the middle class villi enhanced community itandlnc. Wc believe ihai this elevated status in-

i

engc,

crcaaej theit rcMtancc to the autocratic demands el* landlords, tribal kidcrt, pclitical leaden, and employ era. Pahniani social scientists have docuiMnied la-iiancci "here ihe reH ileal and social powers al traditional leaden Lave been aacceulally challenged by reiumcd workers. Tbcy hive aim cited caiet where the aha ft of family power from filhcr to aoaa or to ctthar family aaraabcrt aaeiat the abaoaee ef the falter bat creatediiVa tht faieafy we beaten thai the perception, of uanaaaaa) satewgpoorly ponf local waiters nuy also atriiai betwean lhem and the "newly rich" returnedSuch incident, are only bcginning tobcrccei-nlitd ind dovunKflted, but ai thei inn atretchoa oul In time and mora mitranta return, we upon thaiaocial change, always unienllniradl-tional aociciy.

OakM

Wc opect Pikiaian's manifold demographic and ad> nic problem] lo coal In ur unabated throuahihe ran of thcceMary and,orn case, could combine with oilier factorsopple lha Zia regime or Its aaoon-aevj. Social leniiooi developed mcr ccanpciilioa for dwitdiin rctourcra and icntcc, espeeiniiy in cve'-crowded urban camtonanents, alaaatl oartsialy will preseni occortumks fur arelrrsrrne agitators to re-erui feuaa-srV

Ethane and provincial lenucnicentinuc to innat-cn the nation'i uneaay (office calm and crcem nalicril inietraiion. in our Judgment. Continued eon-ceniraUbn of pofiiicul power arnong tie majorliy Punjabis, making steond-clisi dtliens of Sandhii, Bstucht, Pushtu m. and Other minority groups, wilt offer opposition leaden oewtuaiilei lo attractin the name of Islimic unity sad cgafcarianlsm

In our view, heiibiencd awareness among Pakistanis Ihai Ihe Affhan refugees may become permanent residents and compete for limited jobs and services wlH increasingly stretch Pakistani hospitality in telle of Iheir ethnic lies with the refugees. Wc believe itiai

ihe danger of local ftnreupi bemcen the two groups will mount as fnssiraiioni heighten and the refugees' stay lengthens. If ihe situation in Afghaniiiandoes not permit the refugees to return evei the next several years, we expect pressures id build amoag theto settle elsewhere in Pikauan Under such circumstances, we belttva thai the already straiacd ethnar reialiors in the cov.nr.J' sntrsee as Puibiiia and other lnbensstca more Into nontnbaJ jrcasfljvj|

Should Soviet actions lasso* A'gianialaa ptab targe niunbcrs of new rcfuiccs mo Pakistan, the prosarei on the Pikistanb as wall ai en the international aid organisations would intensify Although wc do not believe the Sovieta would mc aa idvaaugcurther depletion of ihe Afghan papulitlon, wc on believe that the Sovieta could ace iheir interests well screedelective dcpleiioa of irwiWoome Afghan tribal areups while al Ihe seme lime laying tbe Itou.idwosk in Pakistan for further social.nd eccnomic upheaval by increasing the Size ef the rcfitee potationPikataai icaaticaa weaihl be teated uaacrcenario as theapabilities of the United Msticn and oiler micrea-tional orgaeiaaliens, which sre^eavily funded by the United Sulci, -era Mratalwrf'tSjB

While we expect ihe overseas laborers toajor force for economiceast during most ef this decade, the returned "newly rich" migrant,toocial niche ceetwniraurite with ass ccoaomic stains, may makecbsnies in ihe tradiiioaal society. As the number of returccd workers fthey could iacrcesingty become ite sgenis of socnl chance al ihe grass-roots lerei.indirectly tsdVaenetng ihr aaiisa'i fitarc peanscsl coarse. We believe Out is* the sob market in ibe Middle East shrinks or is altered, or the pcniral climate changes so sa io aeverra all or niay of the Pakistani workers eel of the overseas market, tie toss af worker remittances zi atll at the lesrch by if: returned workers for domeslic tmployrneni eoeX badly damage the Pakistani economy and upseian biHly

^ConflslesrfiaT

Append)*

Didnd Projection Melhodoloiy

Oitici

Demoirnphie data from (ourn miioiuIharieicriied by majoracwrdlru lo UN, US. Canadian, lad Pnki-iiaai deme-rripheri. The dm art ewitridictory be-twtcn leu and internally Inconsiii.

1I cenieaei are criticised for both ecetent ind eoveraBe- ihey were liadcquatetr planned and administered: loo maay queiilons were asked, tCereby elieiiine Incomplete and inaccurate responses;btcauM many people were mil in rcfircc iiatut and tribal arcai were Inarecaaiblc to enumerators, the country wu not compteiery

Table 2

tut.

ll Birth

It* atfMNiutai

Assumed MortaBiy. Utt. far ihe Prsjecllen Period:Selected9 io MM

Trill (Ml |V'i>rM' latMfl

llljll

1

03

to

Tie I'll census wii conductedc-tihi later Uan orotinallr icncdalcd. due mostly ia1 war aad

!au if the eilterr anal Hal)

Be^Udcah-ell ai disarray at ibe

oUit

be,kicked politicalU .riirr-lh ofwar and coincided wnk widespread nanusetod. kidtncach- acrnoir^ ibreaih ther .iether ihe

itionof

results wai nee compkled aaill 1

.Only provmoia! Mailsiics Tor will populiiiani of provinces, divulons. diilrteu. and II major aim are(ar available fromensus Databeen collected for the flril tlmi In ihe eounirys hiiiory uadcr leoni'ly favorable political conditions tad with improved cemuiiration and broader ice graphic cove taga over preiicaii efforts. For tbe first lime data were collected oa in individual basis In most tribal trees where tnhel elden had previously provided only perianal cuimetcs of the peculation under their eoi <JJ|

MethadoJou

Tie US Census Bureau prepared populaicc9 through KCO in threencdiam. aad high For each of ihe seres, 'i'-rei *erc

information and projectedMere .ben projected by eie aadomponent projection modalingle mortiBly assumption and three separate fertility luuntpilom Fee the projection period, nasrtalhy condition, wire assented to Irnproveemittal Increase in Iht upeaatlen of life at birth; fertility wai assumed io declinethe period Ml

AJlha* Rtfugrn. The Cenius Bureau used refugee data from reports by the United Ninons Highfor RefutedNMCRl irvd the US De-partmem of State. The UNHCR classifies refu|cea in cantps is followi children o( both leies: iduli males, and adult females This breakdown allc-aof the reported refugee population afth

in'l.:

J

Rtpcricd ind Projected increases Inbtrtvf Afghiti Rcrugtti la93

Refugees bare been oniirlni Pakistan foi onlyver three rein Available dm lot tic second hair1 tug (til lhal the nuraben acre beginning to dtereiie. Bated oni declining trend, the Census Barestilltllleehe ten] number of refugees bt the cad ofecrceaeowf.ace. ever 1 Fenilitv andleveti ia the refugee jopejatoa were asatsaaan' (at be the taoat as lor ibe rakstaai popihiLon ihroagheui tha prxgcctieei period. Because ihe Ceeswi Bureau mured iha:1 Ihe net flow of refugrea woald cease, and further, tha: there would be ao return movemeal before (he end of the projection period, tha projected increases in the refugee populitsoa2 occur only through naturaliocr

andcornpotition of the estimated population of Afghanistan. This comparlion suggests that tbe ratti* geesross icciion of the Afghanlhal none of Ihe three age-aei groups Is over-rcpmc^ltd relative to the Afghan populaiinrt in Afghanistan. The three igc-ici groups were further broken down Into flve-yesr-agt groups using the mates for the Afghanistan populationuide.

Original document.

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