Created: 11/9/1982

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Special Analysis

POLAND; Anothor Test of Wills

. aond ^frsary tomorrow of the legal recognitionund^ivW union

to organise nationwide strikes and demonstratione to protest the recent dissolution of the union. The regime appears to hoveper hand and has carriedystematic campaign to discouracehe planned protests. The authorities willa limited response as proof thai their policies ere working and as anotner large step toward ending martial law. Church leaders etmttnue to empnasize their opposition to violence, and many local prteste probably have urged workers to avoid bloodehed. ew turnout may erode the morale of underground activists, butersevere and the political stalemate will continue. fJ/kW

Tho call for strikes and demonstrations at

fcaanotbeer^rected with much enthusiasm.

en some young people collecting rid other weapons to be

HmBmmBn%IVIIIHB leaflets or rumors calling forarec, ofrovinces. Before thoonugust, leaflets were distributed in at leastrovinces, '


isolated reports, nowever, grenades, toar gas canisters used in demonstrations.

Solidarity sources havetoo afraid to stag*workers to bo apathetic and

ocjectcd, fearing economic reprisals. ffM

nfis9"ntled by what they viewack of leadership from the underground. Solidarity, in fact docs not seem well organized at the shopfloor level.

The call for strikes urged workers to set up secret strike committees,.implying.that none existed. Moreover,

workers foar that the underground is thoroughly penetrated by the secret police and that any strike organizes would

be eas!ly spotted and subjected to harsh penaltios. ^jj^



Approved for ReieS*1.

The Regime's Preparations

The authorities appear more confident about che'r ability to control events than they did in August, when numerous high-level officials warned of bloody overnment spokesman recently claimed the underground is too weak to mount large-scale

dvisers may in fact be con-riaent they can handle any challenge offered by Soli-canty. Their avoidance of exaggerated warnings this time may be designed to avoid alarming the Soviets and to prevent domestic hardliners from claiming that Jaruzelski is not able to maintain order, j

Neverthe1 precautions. "L^ the reqime has sentTtii-ical leaders into factcric quences of protests.

Special teams have been sent into tho schools to monitor behavior. Special mandatory activities have been scheduled for students- (TS U)

The police have already begun detainingarrested another seniorsecurity patrols

government, however, also is offering the populace some inducements. At the Lenin shipyards, for example, the authorities may havo tried to buy off workers by giving them large pay Increases. In avein, the announcementapal.visit in JuneJ is an effort to quiet discontent.

The Church Appeals for palm

Church leaders arc again urging moderation. Glemp's fear of violence prompted him to express

his opposition to the strikes and to meet yesterday

Glemp and other Church officials evidently have accepted the dissolution of Solidarity and are looking for ways to reduce tension. The Archbishop reportedly believes workers eventually will have to live with the new government-controlled unions.


Tho regime seems to be in command. Although there will bo numerous symbolic job actions,ew strikes in the Important factories are likely. There alsowill be demonstrations in the streets tomorrow and onprewar nationalthese

will be put down by the authorities.

Limited protests will demonstrate that while public sympathies remain with Solidarity, moat people beliove little can be done now to change the situation. Even If the turnout Is small, underground leaders willto plan and organize for the future, arguing_the need to be bettor prepared for the next time.

The regime is likely toeak response to the strike calls as proof that its policies are Jaruzelski probably would proceed with his plans to lift martial law by the end of the year, assuming no major demonstrations take placo aroundecember, when Solidarity has calledeek of protests. |

If the strikes are more widespread than now seems likely, however, workers could regain some of their confidence and ignore calls for moderation. In this event, some Solidarity leaders believe worker demands for revonge could quickly lead to bloodshed.



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