Created: 10/25/1982

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POLAND: Pood Shortages Ahead

The regime probably wilt be able to maintain food supplies at current leoeU for toe rest of this year, but some shortages of srai* Pnx^te. and vegetable oil are likely early next year.

The above-average grain harvest ofillion tons this year tsillion tons below Tho regime does not have the money or credit to fill the gap with western imports as it has in the past, and it has thus far procured from farmers only aboutercent ofillion tons planned to be available for human consumption.

Production of other food and fodder crops has been iTh* harvest ofimportantercent below last year. Tho sugar beet crop is aboutercent lower.

Comment: The poor fodder harvest and the high cost of feedgrain in private markets has led to distressbreeding stock and young animals-which will cause greater meat shortages byhortages of grain products also seem likely, because tho Poles probably will import onlyillion tons of grain. This will includeons from othei East European countries and the USSR.

The Poles are trying to arrange barter deals. use some of the short-term credits to bepart of the bank rescheduling agreementrain in the US. The food shortages, combinedprices and lower quality, will increase


Approved lor Rett Dale AUG

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