Created: 9/24/1982

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POLAND: Speculation About Ending Martial Law

Polish officials am speculating that martial law mightbe Leah Walesa released within the next few months. H


Walesa would be roli'-iTuTTTT^nTHFor, all lorir.er trac unions dissolved in November, and martial law lifted beforeecember. He noted, however, that these steps would be "merely formallstlc" and designed to appease the West. "

Another Polish diplomat recently said martial lawwill be lifted this fall because Polandbe governed effectively by military rule. He also asserted that, following the passageaw on trade unionseturn to stability, Walesa would be released-pcrhaps next spring.

peculation the

regime will abolish Solidarity, but only aftertrade union law this fall that would allow,aof unions over three years.

ve inferred th.it recentg Solidarityrelude to its abolition. ft

Comment: Since imposing martial law, Premier Jaruzelski hasautious determination to restore the appearance of normality. Although martial law might formally be revoked in the coming months, the regime probably would be glven_"sperial emergency powers" to ensure its control.B

A new trade union law that implicitly or explicitly dissolves Solidarity would radicalize those underground leaders who had hoped for its reconstitution, even ifeakened form. Some reportedly haveeneral strike if the union is abolished. B

Many rank-and-file workers apparently alreadySolidarity cannot be revived. Some, however, would be more willing to participate in periodic demonstrations, and the mood of eager end distrust toward the authorities would grow. The release of Walesa and other senior union leaders probably would be one of the last steps in the "normalisation" process.

tor Release Date

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