POLAND: IMPLICATIONS OF JARUZELSKI'S SPEECH

Created: 7/22/1982

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

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bleak and that the government even Intend* to crack down on increased absenteeism, particularly on the part of younger workers. H

The unconditional releasenternees and conditional releaseore may ease somewhat the reported pressure for Solidarity activists to stage demonstrationsnational day. Theleadership, however, will continue to agitate for the release of thenternees and

not accept the serious dialogue.

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leadership currently is trying toits strategy of how to bring effective pressure on the regime. Jaruzelski's speech and the unwillingness of the regime to maputure role for trade unions probably will strengthen the conviction of many union leadersramatioIn the formeneralwill be necessary to force concessions. | |

With the postponement of the papal visit, the Church has again been forced to bow to the government's will. Church leaders will welcome the release of internees but will remain privately skeptical that the regime is seriously Interestedialogue with it and Solidarity on the country's futuro. Nonetheless, they will continue to work cautiously for tho release of the other internees, restraint to the underground and the populace.

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Outlook

Poland's domestic political situation is unchanged The perseverance of the underground Solidaritycombined with the unhappiness and alienation in factories, will ensure that opposition sentiment and activity oontlnue.

The government will keep up its efforts to quell opposition. Prospects remain reasonably high that opposition activities in coming months will lead to clashes with the_security forces, thereby perpetuating martial law.

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