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el salvador: performance on certification issues
Jn ihv<illmaii!
this estimate is issued by the director of central intelligence.
the national foreign intelligence board concurs.
The following intelligence organizations participated in the preparation of the Estimate:
The Central InteCSoencethoiMt&omc* Agency, the NotWnol Sew ity Agency, and th* intelgente orgeniotion at #ie Deportment of Stolt
Participating^
The AtfKOt' Chief ot Stoff (oroportmonl oly The Director of Navalepartmerrt ot -hp Novy The Aiinlonl CUef o( Stotl. Intelligence, Deportment olhe Daeelor of Intelligence, Headquarters, Marine Cor pi
NOfOBN
KEY JUDGMENTS
the past six mouths we liave seen signs of modest progress in some areas, and no sinus of backsliding on tlie part of the government or the military in their commitment to improve the human rightsation and reinforce democratic institutions in El Salvadorpositive efforts bj the government in all areas continue to be hindered by deep-seated problems, and overall we conclude thai there have been few dramatic chanties since July. We expect progress lo remain slow and arduous
The government lias made limited progress on human rights issues in the past six months, although in at least onerate of civilianimprovement has been substantial. Other ixisilive trends, such as good treatment of political prisoners, remain overshadowedirtually nonfunctional criminal justice system that has proved unable to indict and prosecute the accused. I
Although some progress has Ixren made in curbing abuses byforces, El Salvador continues lo have serious problems inMajor problem areas remain the lack of fire conlrolcombat zones and arbitrary violence committed bysecurity forces Nevertheless, the military has increased effortsand discipline subordinate olficers and troops, andhas resulted iu more selective targeting. Inew- commanders has been followed by ain lhe human rights records of their unitslaunching operations some field commanders reportedlyspecific instructions to respect the rights of the localand lo take guerrilla prisoners. They increasinglyto these orders in operations uf the past six months.
The government has demonstrated advances in political and economic programs, particularly in Phase III of the agrarian reforms, and the partieshowillingness to cooperate on majornity pact signed by the major parties has led to establishment of political and human rights commissionsew Ccntial Electionsew constitution is scheduled to be completed this spring, and presidential elections are scheduled for March
The government continues its interparH discussions onOn lhe issue of negotiations, the positions of all government and
RE1 OfifV
miliiary elements have coalesced against guerrilla li-rms furihey willole for (he guerrillas in the ongoingSan Salvador has renewed offers lo lhe left lo competeand is drafting an amaw lo help convince leftists tofighting. The government leaves the door open fortalks to that end.
Tin- killers of the L'S church women have been identified, indicted, and have been remanded for trial in civ ilian criminal courts There is no evidence of higher level complicity in these murders Two metnlx-rs of the National Guard have confessed lo killing two US representatives from the American Institute forlxtr Developmentr'I.DI and tlie president of thr Salvadoran land reform institute. Ttie> luvr been ordered lo stand trial However, tlie three accused authors of lliescmiliiary officers and afree
sVcR(T
DISCUSSION
Thr Intelligence Community has attemptedihr put sis months to broaden its coveiage of Kl Salvador's efforU to meet qualifk-aiium lot continued aid lei forth by tbeongrrsc Duringtime wcrealized tome rrw-dest improiement in our j
J Reporting from tne US rnitttRV in MPi Salvador continues lo ptoudc our primary base uf information on the fundamental issue* involved in certification, Iha* data provided appear objective ami accurals arid reflect lhe iudgmcnl of all elements ol the mission.
Hurnon Sight*
US Congress criterion for judging Salvadoran Government's performanceoncerted and significant effort lo comply withrecognized human rights."
the Salvadoran Government hasprogress on human rights lavage, in the pastrelative to the period covered in thealthough In at least oneraleimprovement hat beenvirtually nonfunctional criminal sustk-e
system in II Salvador, the standard for measuring prngresi in ihi* regard is elusive. According lo the US Embassy,riminal* hail U'nn piocesscd through civilian courts outational prisoner populalion.
The government't record on treatmentood. Those abuses that do occur, according to the US Embassy,appen duriirg the process of arrest and not during detent son Fot rumple, the government claims to haveolitical prisoners We know thai) ate housed a! rlic icl.iiisiUarlona Prison outside lhe capital These prisoners range in statu* from captured guerrillas to leftist intellectual* suspected of subversion According to US Embassy officers who havr visited the prisoners, Ihey are well fed and receive eiCeUrm treatment, including access to schooling, use ol an industrial shop, and light* lo ronaagal visits in private dormitories
The government is attempting to expedite trial proceedings lor political prisoner* and Isew amnesty law thai will further help io ieducing the number of detainees. The establishment ol an amnesty commission also is being (intsidcrcd to oversee the broader issue of assimilating guerrilla defectors into the pnhtical and economic mainstream as one phaseemur-raise solution to the insurgenteven-member human rights commissmn was afspointed tn early December, charged "lilt formulating anmechanism thai will promote and protect human rights
3 Tha insurgent war ha* intenufied since July, and tl" rale of combat deaths on both side* has increased The rate of civilian political deaths, however, has continued to declineheverage of political deaths1 MM. but2 it droppedecrease ofercent. Since July Ibe death rate has dropped more titanercent from that of lhe first slv months. |^
Control o'Armed forces
I* achieving substantial control over all elenvnl* of iU own armed forces. "
Our base ot informaiion has ctpanded inregarding the behaoor of armed forcesalthough our ability to momtoi militaryany continuih oi to confirm specificpoor.over (he
putt ilk months esscntnllv indicate lhat miliurycontinue io base problem* in curbing abuses by suboidinale elements It should, however, be noted tbat il mav be less the ptiaJuct of an increase in human rigliU violations thanreater volumeeporting on the subject due to more aggressive tasking and collection effort*
or ciomplt. lhe general staff remains largely Ineffective in promoling fin* control among combat units, although some impioveinettl* have been made over the last so month* IS military intelligence reporting indicates that pOCej planning and caielessiiess on tire part ofSalvadoran cirmrrsander* during
ar gtraa 1u1 uU rUo-amranduii.v.
ili- iiwiiBrii'it"till iW Imajl-
vlL.it.italtt*hi Inctniliip or rthrrel.ti-itioxnlui den In lei
bombardmentslarge-scalesnenetinics renjll indun be* of Weof proueih Iniiuattves.ilivhiKtion between comlwtanl midbecome blurrcdWe
military reportshat "guerrilla casualties often include unarinetl innittteiitrmnnel(ollowery andcistluns liapnrd in ibr batik- nw On theand. increased intellicenre suiiporl and training haveoie selective targeting.
H The tenuous ud often nones nl ml eunircJ ol senior officers over eWtnenii of the paiaimhlarv sccuri-
i. form and civilian itrrgulars is amng cause
for luncern Reportinirhuman nghl* violations by military personnel largely reflects the rice .so of these small rural-based coiuliilmlarvnreas etpN-ldlly. where lawlessnessay of life, sermliter-ale personnel ledorporalergeant all too often assume (he rotes ofnd net* tioor. [ |
milllaty leaders, however, tn continuing their efforts to overcome human rights abuses. Over the luil sixcmliers of lhe hiuli command have strpped Up visits to posts in thempha-wring to subordinate officers thr necessity oftroop* guih> of abusesigh command appears increasingly concerned thai combat officersood example lor their troops The replacementew commanders has hren lulloued by aim-
i -ment in the human right* record of their units. [ I
Defeme Minister Garcia continues loeeditm role in curbing military abuses In2 hennlrrcncc in San Salvador olocal commanders- rssenlially all enlistedand leaffirmed lhe high command's commitment lo humanand the Penalties for committing abuses Wehtmeser. that Ihne prnakics ate belrm rigorously enforced I I
Wvetlhel.-ss. Carciat ellnrls In discipline and educate lhe miliiary have shown some posilis'e. al thouuh imdramatic. results Before launching ansomemander* rcpoitedlv: specific instruct mi* tn reptct the rights of the heal civilian population and lo laic guerrillaThey increasingly have adhered Io Ibesr orders in operations of lhe past six months They continue lo lake pmnners and interrogate themore pco'es-
manner. (c|
Progress on Reform
"Is making continuedin implementinst essential economic mid political relnrrns. luclud-ing land reform.1*
'l"he Slate Departnd the Ageucv forprovide lhe bulk of our mfornuTioii on lhe reform priKess All availableum indic.tr* thai the government lias made picw res* in some arras ol political and economic rrfoim. (nil ha* accomplished liille in other*
The function of government remains hampered by continuing lermnns bet "ten the ma (or parties
Increasing assertiveisees by Pn-stdenl Magana, howcv-ei. hasie kind of deadlocks lhat prevailed
in lhe first month* of his administration Thus, despite
periodic flareups within and among the diversegroupings, moderates and hardliners have been
o fend off crises through compromise For eaampfe. in Septeinher thearties agreed lo divide lhe Zttl may.wallieshusovernment crisis. I
he ability of Ihe parties tn cooperate on some key issues was untiVrscnred by the signing in August of the "Pact of Apanecaunary doeiimenl in wfssch lhe majorleoVed io cooperate on political,and economic reforms As slipulated by the Bgreemenl, human rights and political commissions slm* have been foimed and are functioning, with tin-latterormal linietabk- for drafting amiew constitution b>I> and sched presidential eledioru foi4 Theeace tommisswi. hosiesei. remains mired in paitlsan cnutroversy over Its composition and mission. It reportedly will be formed by Frliriiary. but Magana now envisions it asulx^Hnmiller ot Ibe political comnsissaoo j |
roblems wtth forming the peaeebeen caused largely by InlraiiMgencc on UicIhe extreme right, led by AnemblvHit ladies, however, have broughtcloser together in an effort to limit hisbelieve,hat, vs hile thego.in remains vulnerable to partisan infighting,trend psunls lo increasing pingiiaa" inand Implementation
he millUry temalnj the key lo stability in San Salvador and continues to support the Magana admtn-
Miration. Magaru's cllnrls to cHcel some degreeKmc enabled tlieoIU involvement in civilian political battle*lastmonths Despite lhe recent disputemilitary, wc believe lhe armed forces willprimary force lor moderationhangeDefense Ministry take place in thenow appears probable wr beliescorps "ill againn
hile escalating insurgent attacksutstrains on the economy, they have not deterred tin* armed forces from keeping lhe agrarian reformon Hack. On balance, the relationship between the peasant organizations and lbe military has Improved, and lbe land reform process in reienl months lias iml met with lhe kinds ol setbacks and controversy ih.it occurred following the Marrb election, when former landowner* illegally evicted seveial thousand peasant beneficiaries, p |
IS Progress in Phase III (land to the tiller) ha* hem particularly apparent since an Army colonel was appointed to head ils administrationop peasant leader was named In the presidential committer'legislative action on land reform For instance, according to information provided by AID in Elpplications for land titles were srnV milled in August and September, more than three times theor the previous two
uch increases also are attributableovern-ment publicity campaign lo inform eligible recipients of benefits and procedures Asctober,for new lilies since lbe beginning of (be reform program totaledccording to AID SinceIbe governmcnl reportedly has set theof anapplications by the end of March Iflfc) According to AID. more0 new applications had been received bv year's end.that government efforts are on track. Meanwhile, as2 provisional titles bad been distributed. The government hopes In increase this figure by an additionaly the end ofill by year's end the total had increased bv. suggesting Iluil the government is well behind in reachhat goal. Inermanent land titles were granted underurint; lbe pastmonths, bringing the tolal number of perniaiicnt lilies granted lo morel
Elections ond Negotiations
"li Committed lo holding free elections at an early dale and. In that end. has demonstratedood-faith ef foils to begin discussion* with all majoriticul factions in El Salvador."
government and military appearto holding presidential elections onpecial plenary sessiontbe conslilucnl assembly appointed aFlections Council lo oversee lheThe five political parlies lepresented ineach have oik- member and oneon lhe Council. The president of ihatby histheAction parly, which currently holdsin Ihe piovisional govemmetilj |
Council is charged primarily with:
ew eleeloral law.
ew voter registry
Authorizing political party activities
Promoting the.process. Regulating its own internal functions. | |
The Council faces some fundamental hurdles, however, including its temporary status and the possi-bdily that it could be resiruclured before1 election. Ir also currently lacks financial and material lesonrccs, such as net computers to assure prompt and accurate votei tallies Its predecessor's attempts toew voter registration system provediiiteasihlr during the last election andalso will be bevond reach for t
National Interest inVI election,is already evident in rhe attempts of new parties io organize To the disadvantage ofonservative splinter pany has emerged withprivate funding arvd has successfully registered with well over fhcignatures. Two fledgling centei-right groups and one iefl-of center paitv also plan io participate
We believe lhe government and the military are willing to male some attempts at reconciliation with the left before the presidential election. Hie Magana administration repeatedly has slated its policy of allowing leftist parties to register, campaign, and field
'lor oilierovernment and mtliui, lrj.tt-r< of all stripes rcjrcl any proposals lor rtrgofutioitt aimed atewer-sharing at raiigrmenl outside the ongoing polillcal prutes* Ac cording lo the UShe five parties In the awtnWv have debated tlie issue ami appear to asiee on thire mayor points:
ami/or negoliations at the Intllalive of the left are unacceptable
he left must compete for power in democratic elect ions.
talks promoted by the government shouldheir only objective the pattk-ipalion of the left in election* oe its surrender
heegotiation efforts base been
Ihe tell seeks to regain tot
lomeslscaUy and internal lot ia Hi--byitself as lhe more lejcitiinate governing ahcr-native to the civii-milllary power structure In San Salvador. The Marxist-leninist maiorily of the nisui-gcnl alliance views negotiationseans nfIhe unity of the governmcnl and Ihr military, while also buying lime for the guerrillas to strength-eti their political and mililary organizations Even the concept of power sharing- -totally tin accept able to guerrillaperceived by the leas doctrinaireemporary phase before final victory
evertheless.believe that some Mint rte-menU such as Cuiliermo Ungo and his small coterie of moderatesincerely intetesled in Kinin* lhe elecloral process and may be eorruderinc the i- -si In lilies foreparate peter with San Salvador Publicly ami privately ibev have been pressing lhe government foe cniscessions andthai would make their participation viable (i
e view as negligible the prospects fora comprehensive and binding solution oveitlx monlhl The fundamental goals ofand theniutM insurgentappear irreconcilable II elections takethey are likely to be held once again inof violence
Murders of US Cituwn
"Cood-failb cflorts to imesiigate murder* of si* citizens] and bring In rustkc those respc-istble for (bote murders "
ur discussion of thb issue it based almost entirely on US Embassy reporting
The five National Cuard members accused in the slayings of four US churchwomcn havo yet lo go lo ln.il Court-appointed defense altorneys routinely have appealed lhe presiding judge's order to begin trial proceedings on ihe basis of lhe available evidence The appeal process Is likely lo be completed by tbe end of January and will determine whether Ibe tna! begins promptly or must be postponed pending further investigation There is no additional reporting to vug grsl how ihe appdble court will rulr Q
o lack information to assess the testimony of one court witness that lhe accused guardsmen may liave been acting onom above The uiincts has implied that the iunior sergeant accused of plan-nine and directing tbe killings might have onlythey were under "higherrnsumably lo elicit the cooperation of Ins peers
ill. We have no evidence suggesting lhe guardsmen were ordered by higher authority lo carry out the crime, although we suspect Ihat some attemptsoverup probably occurred during Initial investigation on the part nf midlevel National Cuard ufliciab The incident reflects the kind of arbitrary abuses by elements of the security forces that we brhrve still take place, albeit wiih less frequency
Two members of ihr National Cuard have confessed lo killingUS representatives from lhe American Institute for Free Labor IV.ekim-.ent (AIFI.D) and the president ol lis- Salvadoran land reform institute. Theybeen ordered lo stand trial The three accused aulhots of ihr crimeofficers Lt Lope/ Sibnan and Captain Avila and businessman Hansfree.
The whereabouts of Captain Avila and Hans Christ are unknown Christ fled In IfJHI to Miami, where he was detained by US authorities pending extradition lo El Salvador on criminal charges Charges were dropped by thr Salvadoran Government for Lack of evidence and with them th* re.ju.-it for eilradilioti Christ may have leftlled Stain for
rs
or South America. Captain Aula, meanwhile, fled the country in September following hit polygraph by FBI official* in Sanivilian justice official indtcslei that Captain Avila'%ne oi the most prmeif ul members of the Supicme Courl and has worked to Work forma) indictment proceedings against, his
caneopez Sibrian. who isactive duty, has underscored the continuingof the ludtcial process Me was twicefrom military detention bv twoeven though the evidence against himSome Salvadoran leaders have atimittcdofficials that his release for lackf iusticc. and aofficer has alleged that the civilianintimidated ami bribed by rightwing elements
government and military offsctabtbe Salvadoran judiciary lo rescind theand renew trial proceedings. Thepei Sibrian permission to leavearid the government has appealed the release by lower court indues andecision soon. According to US Embassy- sources, if the appeal fails, the aovernment will attempt io employstale-of-targend detain him under the terrorism clause for his roleolitical crimeublic official Success in thb effort will deitrnd on the rudgmcnl of tlie Supreme Court, which currently is against employ ing the siate-of-siege law.
n lnoad terms, (heibrian caseto point up lhe endemic weaknesses andof the entire Salvadoran situation Despile the efforts of government and miliiary leaders to>se Isase noted an increase in tecent months in anonvrnnin death threats and intimidation against courl ssilnesses, civil and military officials, and US diplomats The far right abo has attempted lo garner public support lor the accused officers by painting litem as innocent martyrs, and charging government and military- officials with treason for colluding ssllh the US Embassy The events of the nasi six months make successful prosecution of Lopez Sibrian and the two othei authors of the crime appear doubtfulf
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