PAKISTAN: PRESIDENT ZIA'S VISIT TO WASHINGTON
We betlewe that President Mohammad Zla-ul-Baq will attempt to assess the strength of the OS commitment to Pakistan when he visits Washington beginningecember. We Judge that Zia will be more concerned about indications of the seriousness of the commitment, especially President Xeegan'8 attitude, than about specific issues.
Zia will be coming to Washington with serious doubts about reliability of OS promises of economic and military support. Judging by his with his rejection of President Carter's aid package insees economic and military aid as the prime test of Washington's commitment. In the past few weeks, ears about the funding of the OS economic aid packageelief that Washington was reneging on the1 agreement toevelopederious problem in US-Pakistan relations.
Pakistanis are also
concerned that they will not be able to meet obligations they have already assumedand might even be forced into default--it the aid package Is delayed or not fully funded.
en*c
statements
Zia values Pakistan's relationship with the USounter to Soviet pressures from Afghanistan, but public[
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^aSSJRET"
will continues
against foe.
he, his senior generals, and many durability of the US comml tment. Islamabad is concerned that the u
India, which Pakistan
believe that at some point Pakistan win rnative but toeal with Moscow.
We believe that Zia will may state openlythat because Pakistan is threatened by India and the USSR, it must have strong US backing in order to continue following policies that support US interests. If he takes this line it will be pertly to encourage US support.
Pakistani View of the US
We believe Zia shares the widespread concern inthe us commitment to that country will evaporate atmoment. Pakistanis frequently cite US "abandonment"during its wars with India5 trong personal commitment to PakistanReagan. He is probably less concerned aboutof the present US administration than he is aboutto prevent Congress from blocking help for Pakistana possible future US tilt toward India.{
Almost every discussion with Pakistanis about Indiathey believe the OS fails to understand the seriousnessthreat to Pakistan posed by India. Pakistanis claim thatrelationship is far closer and India'sPakistan far more aggressive than we believe. Even ifconsolidated their position in Afghanistan, wePakistanis would still see India as the greater threat,their distrust of theput morean agreement with Moscow than in one with New
Although the Zia government remains strongly opposed tooccupation of Afghanistan, illion AfghanPakistan areerious burden. We believesuch as recognition of the Babrakontinued Soviet troop presence, areat least the next year, even if the US relationshipbecause of concern over the reaction of theparties and armed Afghan insurgents in Pakistanfriends abroad, such as Saudi Arabia and China. ^
Military Supply
OS arms are the centerpiece of Pakistan's ambitiousmilitary modernization and the key determinant inwith the United States.
Human Rights
zia's political opponents hope to focus us attention on his "military dictatorship" during his visit to Washington by staging demonstrations that will force hira to jail political leaders and thousands of other Pakistanis. They hope to force Washington to increase pressure on zia to hold elections, zia is likely to respond to criticism of military rule by saying that he is trying to restore civilian government, but in present circumstances elections would probably bring anlikelynot in the best interest of either Pakistan or the US.
Zia faces growing problems but no immediate threat to his rule. His largely benign authoritarian regime has given Pakistan political stability and economic growth. Zia lacks an organized constituency outside the Army, however, and we believe he could find his hold on power challenged should he blunder, the economy stagnate,opular leader emerge to unite the opposition.
senior militarymilitary rule to end. WeZia and his military government survive because theis unable to present an alternative acceptable toand because Zia has shown considerable skillwith the opposition. He has kept the oppositionby exploiting their differences and by roundingdemonstration leaders when necessary. At thehe has kept repressive measurestrong popular reaction to military rule. He hashelped by public distaste for the terrorist acts of awithin the opposition and by the tendency ofsupport their government when facedoreign threat.
Narcotics
heroin reaching the us is produced from opium harvested in Pakistan. Iran, and Afghanistan. The increase in Southwest Asian heroin is due primarily to the drying up of otherasconditions in Iran, and the introduction of heroin manufacturing into Pakistan. Opium production has declined since zia came to power, but this may be due mainly to poor weather and to lower prices brought about by overproduction
in previous years. (
Zia should aake a
greatuL errorc ro ensure tnat Pakistan enforcesespecially eliminating heroin laboratories, T
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