NATO STUDY ON EAST-WEST ECONOMIC RELATIONS

Created: 2/8/1983

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THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE

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memorandum for: thomas nlles, deputy assistant secretary for european affairs department of state

nattotifftintemgence officer forstudy on east-west economic relations

do not believe that the work plan tentatively approved byeconomic committee gives theeasonable chance foroutcome. the three meetings which havearch,to providefor expert testimony on all the major parts of the paper. thedoes not, however, provide for an adequate review of theproduct.

thereigh risk that discussions of the draft study in the economic committee and at higher policy levels will be more acrimonious and divisive than would be the caseerious estimative review had already been done.

y preferred approacheview of the nato staff's draft paper is that used in the production of our own national intelligence estimates, in which each interested agencyepresentedenior representative, whorepared not only to discuss the draft, but also to suggest and negotiate changes in wordli

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the so-called "Heads of Economic Intelligence" or by "Senior Intelligencelso, the review could be handled either informally or as parteinforced meeting of ECONAD. In any event, the Chairman of the NATO Economic Staff would chair the meeting and the final product would be his responsibility.

Them proposing would notubstitute for an Economic Committee review. The latter, however, should be considered to be the first stephe policy review process; the ECONAOs could be reinforced by policy level officials from the capitals. The purpose of the intelligence review would be to facilitate the policy discussion.

With regard to the specific workssume that changeshe agreed-upon dates are probably impossible. If so, there shouldenior Intelligence meeting to review the full draft of the Economic Staff in April, as soon as possible after the Easter holidays. elieve our NATO Reps should insist oneeting, and be prepared to take the matter to higner levels if necessary.

rect and uncertain.Please let me know your reaction ASAP.

tblli)

IB1IJ1

Original document.

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