PAKISTAN-USSR-AFGHANISTAN: STATUS OF UN MEDIATION

Created: 1/1/1983

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PAKISTAN-USSR-AFCHANISTAN: Status Of UN Mediation

//Fakiateni President Zia ia opiimistic that the USSR may atter itsn Afghanistan, but the juet-eonctuaad round of 'JH-sponsored talAe apparently achieved only alight proarecs and left key elementsettlement untouched.//

of Soviet troops has to be completedpecific tins, that the Afghan refugees are to be consulted through some form of UN machinery, and that Pakistan has tospecific guarantees of noninterference to meet Soviet concerns. Actual datesoviet withdrawal were not discussed, and Moscow has not precisely defined what it considers interference. The Pakistanis deny there have been any significant discussions onransition government.//

Content: lthough the parties evidently nave slightly narrowed their difference* on the elements to be includedolitical settlement, the UN effort could quickly stall when detailed negotiations begin. The refugees, who so far have publicly rejected the UK effort, will not agree to return to Afghanistan unless all elementsettlement are acceptable to them.//

//The Soviets probably would not agreeimetable for withdrawal without assurances regarding the kind of government they will leave behind in Kabul. At this stage, they have shown little interest in anything but cosmetic changes to the Afghan regime. In addition, given the inability of any one party to control movement across the Pakistan-Afghanistan border, Islamabad will be unable to give th<edible guarantee of noninterference.//

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