NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY - AFGHANISTAN: IMPLICATIONS OF TALIBAN CAPTURE OF K

Created: 9/26/1996

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

Thursday,6

afghanistan; tmpui.-alioik of talibanabul' | 6

AFGHANISTAN:

of Taliban Capture or Kabul Q

Taliban advanced to lhc outskirts of Kabul yesterday and is positioned to take the city. Governmenl forces are digging in,|

[bat Tahoan's momentum may outpace government efforts to organize Ihe city's defense.

of Kabul would not accord the militia nationwide control Ethnic minorities in the north will resist domination by the. prvdomtrumdy Eashtun Taliban and its hardline policies.

Government military commander Masood, an ethnic Tajik, will concentrate on preventing Taliban from entering his home base in the Panjsher valley.

Opposition leader and ethnic Uzbek Dosiam will fight if Taliban tries lo infiltrate his area in the north,!

Taliban consistently rejects compromise with Afghanistan's political factions, which it regards as criminals.

Taliban's gains will prompt neighboring countries to reassess their Afghan policies, but none are likely to take action in the near term.

slamabad had been impro ving relations with Kabul and probably will be reluctant lo reverse course unless It believes Taliban can consolidate control in Kabul.

Kabul's food shortage may ease if Taliban captures the city because Taliban will allow international aid.

Relief operations may be impeded because ihe International Red Cross is evacuating personnel. I

Press reports say Kabul has food for two months. -CIA, DIA, NSA-

SepwmbcTT*

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