Created: 4/14/1997

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

Office of Asia and Latin American Analysis

Intelligence Report



: Progress Toward Dispute Settlement Update Q


Tor Brasilia Meeting

Peru and Ecuador appear committed in beginning the next phase in the border dispute resolution process. The disputants have exchanged lists explaining their positions on the imposes.

Ecuador would luce to discuss lhe Zammilla canal impose first, while Peru wants to begin wiih demarcation of ihe Lagartococha-Guepi border area. The two agree, however, that the most contentious impa.fe-.thai regarding the Ccncpa Valley and Ecuador's claim to Amazon access-will be addressed last. Achieving agreement on the order of discussion probably mil not be difficult because the two sides disagree only on the order in which to discuss the easier imposes.

ttador is ready to move tonegotiating teams next week:

Quito Eager forQ

substantive talks immediately alter Ihe installation

and will stay in Brasilia as long as necessary to get the process offood start

Quito says that it will not raise its allegations that Peru has planted landmines on Ecuadorian territory at the Brasilia meetingf"

iQuito could even be flexible on the contentious impose dealing with sovereign access to the Amazonj-j

Because of domestic problems and its inability to match Peru in an arms race, Ecuador may want to resolve the border dispute as soon as possible.




Ecuadorian miliiary--which is mote hardline than the Foreign Minisuy--is largely being kept out of the strategy formulation process in preparation for the talks, which abo suggests that Quito wants significant progress from the beginning stages. I

-.While Peru is Prepared To Stonewall

is going to stick io its strict legalistic interpretations of the Rio Protocol at

may limit progress to an

agreement on the order for discussing Ike impascs.

Despite its apparently inflexible altitude toward the Brasilia talks. Peru has been careful not to publicly piovoke Ecuador in recent weeks. For example, Peru has not publicly announced its receipt of. whichl-

Ecuador's Air Force Asks-

could antagonize EcuadorF"

In an example of the military's tougher attitude toward Peru, tlte Ecuadorian Air Force last week formally requested price and availability dala from the United Statesackage ofircraft, claiming that Quito was going to buy advanced aircraft by the end of the year. J


There is no indication lhat the AJarcon administration--whichaping budget deficit and few means to acquire the funds to finance an expensive aircraft-has approved or willurchase of advanced aircraft.

eployment Amid Problems With Support |^

Peru will begin deploying itso an airbasc at Chiclayo in northern Peruthesemilcs--ur

aboutinutes flight umc--fiom Ecuador.


Both thendave relatively short ranges, which make it necessary to deploy the aircraft at forward bases close to the likely battlefield. *"

Peruvian Air Force Commander may have been dismissed for failing to ensure that thead sufficient supplies and ground support equipment.

The arms dealers who arranged theeal with Belarus arc scrambliog to get repair parts and ground support equipment for the aircraft. Russian arms export officials have recently emphasized their view that foreign buyers should work with Moscow, nut intermediaries in the former Soviet Republics, to purchase Russian-built weapons.

General Richter. the Peruvian Air Force Commander, resigned suddenly and unexpectedly last week, suggesting that he was held responsible for the problems with acquiring parts for the.

Original document.

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