A 10-YEAR PROJECTION OF POSSIBLE EVENTS OF NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION

Created: 5/1/1983

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

Year Projection of Possible Events of Nuclear Proliferation Concern B0

Prefers

proliferation Involves capeb-lit, ind laical:onstructnuclear explosive and the motiviitono so. Capability largely comprise, physical facilities and knw-how. ln(eni j,olitical question andountry'*own balancing of faciort affecting iu seearity. prestige, and other Interests.

Tha proliferation equation i. alTeciedariety ofoth political aad irrhaaril Rchnat pohiKal cwm, indade kaomfcjp changes or emcrif occsublUtment of cooperatee.ernrnwu, and ntaw.ai.on of contractual arrangements or agreements between governmenu. Relevant tachnical events include such rxcurrencei as mr!up or acquisition of new facilities.

Thlimendedoncise overview of passible future that coukl bear on nuclear proliferation.ntendedeference aid for non-proliferation policy makers to help prepare then to deal with such events, should they occur.

TV main thrmsl of thiso project an integrated ceVcesoiogy of pot-siblg political and technical cents over the aeitears. The paper <sby geographic regions and, within regions, by major countries of Proliferation concern. Both supplier nations and countries viewed as potential prolifcraiors erehronology of possible events is projected for each couatry and for key international nuclear organizations. Thisrecededictogram lhal summarises the near-term rnsekar capabilities of countries of major proliferation concern

The technical events ara heavily concenirated oa the startup of two types of sensitivefacilities: reprocessing aad enrichment plants. Fast breeder reactors also arc Included, to lhe extern plans for such reactors can be anticipated. Other reactors are Included only where ihey would have particular rircviftraiioo significance. Likewbe, otherilitiesmentioned (for example, fuel fabrication plants) If ihey will materiallyountry ia reaching nuclear impendence.

For rase of reference, events concernusg sensitive facilities--enrichment aacT iiprccus.ngrc skvo presented chrarsologKallyeparate appendix, grouped by type of facility and by geographic area.

n update of an earlier research paper published in