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Afghan islam Population of Co>crnmeni-Controllcd AreasWkW
ompleted enimate of population in ireas held by the Afghan Ccvcrnmcni tuggem that the Sovicii have failed to incrcaie the proportion of population under their control Despite tie influx of refugee! into SevMieemirolled Katnl and the flight of refugee! into Iran and Pakistan from imurgent-coeitrolled rural areai. eeey abouiercent of the pope tation lives in govenimcni-oontrailcd areu. This pcrccnuge hat gnduiliy dccrcaicd. butome-whit slower rate than Ihe dccreaie ia ihc govern* rocnt'i territorial conirol because government cccircl ii greatesi In urban ireti,
Tbe governments km of many relatiiely pupuluus rural areasecline in both the population and the percentage of population under government contra! untilrom1 toJ.despite further territorial leases, tbe percentage Of population InMtroJhd areasroughly ibe lime. When we began our study,tupceted the Increase In the population of Kabul and the flight of refugees from rural areai conirol led by the resistnoce to eaaie tbe percent of thein grwcrnmenl-ccntrcaied areas to riseeven while lerritoriil control fell.
three charu that accoraoany this ankle show Ihe rciulu of ouromparison of cur pcpula-ricn enimites with theof district control indicates that thi government has held control of the urban popalalion0 with Hole change. Itat central in rami areas,t'.per-cm dccrcisc ia the sire of the populiuon under its cocao!he total rural population his aho decrcisad trough only byerceM, largely through the flight of people lo urban areas, Pakistan, and Iran. We esli-mateillion refugees arc in Pikitian and 5CO.OCO in Iran.
Metbodotagy
There is considerable martin for error in oarbut we do not believe It is io great lhat we arc wrong about the tread in popuitttea control The reports for1 ind3 indicated for each province the number of dittriai controlled by the government, by tha Inturgenis. and whereaiWimple, the government held the district capital and tha Insurgents inoat of the remain-der of tke dtrtriet. The repent, however, did not indicate which districtsrovince fell into which category, and we had lo determine the breakdown from aviilabie informittoa oo com Cot openUoas.
populaiioa hu increased from an0 win estimated IJ. millionwing to the filial of rural people to escape military operaUOnt In the countryside. We have prcvmioniUy cillmaicdigrants to Kabul linceven though outer urban areas have probably tost population, uotably Qandihir and Herat, the huge Ic/lux io Kabul has robed ibe urban percentage In tbe whole country fromn9 census io aroundercent now.
The report for Decern0 gave only ihc nittcnal touts, with no breakdewe by province. Werovincial breakdown for December using ibe lane asteairccnt and combat cterationi between December and June
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