V'BKCI: Possible fimmtdlatt lespc-.ses from the Soviets or thi Cubans to the Grenadlan Operation
I. This meraorandum assesses the responses of cither th* Soviets or tinr the two of the* together, to the GranadTsnt1gn In the ntit v* thtnkthe1 tale thtad. at It ware. In Europe, castlgat'ng us for our be'^ qulc* on the tVloaajr,restlve." wearing our behivlor over twtM intowhichoing on now. the Cubansnd Castro h'aself ere *ore llktly te thin* of revenge than would the Soviets, largely - he loss of Grenadeess damaging to them then to ' We note thit tlnost Inevitably thermbe mutual suspicions over the course of eventsit* the Cubans suspecting that th* Sovlr" -ere promoting toard over BlshoO.
?. Thef Grenada his Increased the pressure ori the Soviets end the Cubans lo arcade lo Nlcaregoar. requests for high performance aircraft, but nest of us believeove still Is unlikely. Tht US marker It ttam. Clearly: ls and the Cubans might gi-*le that the UnHoc Statesavr to consider the International and orjaestlc political costs of responding. If the Soviets end Ccbans were -il Mng to provide HlG's end we destroyed them, they would reap ' dividend of makingappear trigger happy once again.
The relnflUratlon oftroops Intopossibly to connect with Cuban remnants and start up irregular actions, seems unlikely. Thedoes not afford good sanctuary fororce. More likely mould be the Introductionew agent-. onduct acts of sabotage and propaganda and give the appearance of popular resistance to the new government.
The Soviets and Cubans nay orchestrate terroriser juit tht threat of It againstribbean States, Jamaica, ant' Barbados, to discourage tourism and punish the- for cooperating with the United States. Such action could further degrade economies of these countries with resultant political Instability in some of thera. (Here we note that the Grenada action shows that mc cannot pretend th.it any one of these small Island-statesnimportant to us, with the obvious Implication of the need for an official US presence In earn oflp.)
The Grenada operationould be usedustification for future aggressive actions by thr <ov1etsakistan or Poland, for example. Ifear threat. Itay of looking at how tht loss in Greneda might be nade otherwise useful.
A cautionary noteUrrder. There nvendency to ih *n> hafcpenlne, In the near tar* ihrt is contrary to US Interestsesponit to Grenada. If tn* Beirut boa*'no had takeneek from now, would we hiv? seen it as retaliation!
Attachedt of pnslble Cuban and Soviet response*. After the Mediate threat hts eiplred, It .ill becoate Incrtailngly difficult to aminyuish the moves of tht Soviets or the Cubanslitlict response to
AttKhcent: Possible Reactions
Possible Reactions (In rough order of likelihood)
ubans orchestrate worldwide propaganda cestui gn. Including denonstretlons before US Embassies, atrocity stories, books, soviet, etc.
Cuba requests Additional railltary ind ecc-nomle assistance from USS*.
"Itaraguans request additional mlassistance from USSt/Cufjt.
Cubans orchestrate carnpalgnge/attack* egalnst US bates or esabetHoi overseas. In the continentaltates, and Puerto Rico. !
i/USSR orchestrated at touristsasternuc.in^ major drop in touristue for OtCS states, Barbados, Jssalca.
lo* performancealrrraft ors are Introduced Into;"IcePeeua.
perfi,manr" Jetransshipped to Nicaragua from Cat* vie t
dly thirdp^.rt (LI'-var)on-USSR/Cuban vessel.
% Infiltrate onc-tliw saboteurs Into Grenade to create Impression of
Jams US commercial
-ibe dispatches papioslves/sapper squads to Central America to teres* USinstallations, and facilities, or Importanttc*>dvTen
equipment or facilities.
' ir'napplnqs or assassinations of uS officials or East Caribbean leaders.
aval force to Caribbean. I'SfR auguments the Soviet brigade In Cuba.
Cuhe seeks U* Security Council seat at next
Cuba Instructs far left paramilitary organization in Dcarlnlcayi Republic te stir up trouble.
Cuba infiltrates guerrilla forces Into
Cuba dispatches OSA missile patrol boat or FOXTROT submarine to strikevessel near
Cuba orchestratesm>ng Jamaican contract Jorkers et
Soviets stir the pot In Lebanon, attempting to or aw us forces!Vietnam quagmire."Original document.