IRAN-IRAQ SITUATION REPORT, 5 MARCH 1984

Created: 3/5/1984

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

PRODUCER:

THE MAJOR IRANIAN OFFENSIVE AGAINST ALILL INVOLVE AT LEAST TWO MAJOR THRUSTS. THE MAIN ATTACKS COULD COME AS EARLY AS THE END OF THIS KEEK KKEN THE IRANIANS PROBABLY WILL FINISH REDEPLOYING THEIR REGULAR ARMY UNITS TO THE SOUTH FROM NORTHERN AREAS.J

4. ARGE ASSAULT KAY BE WJircrlEDE IRAQI DEFENSES EAST OR NORTHEAST OF AL BASRAN TO PIN DOWN OR DRAW IRAQI REINFORCEMENTS TO THE AREAS. ECOND MAJOR ATTACK WILL BE LAUNCHED SOUTH ACROSS THE MARSHES AROUND THE FLANK OF

DATE: 4

EXISTING IBAOI FORTIFICATIONSSEIZING QURNA ANDBRTDG ES ACROSS THE TIGRIS RIVER. IRANIAN ON THE PENINSULA ALSO MIGHT SHELL THS BAGHDAD TC ROAD NORTH OF QURNA. IRANIAN COMMANDERS PROBABLY IRAQI 'JNITS CAUGHT BETWEEN THE TWO THRUSTS WOULDFLEE TO THE WEST, LEAVING AL BASRAH,

ESTIMATE OVERALL IRANIANnn AKtPEECH THIS WEEKEND, THE AYATOLLAH

St'ANSWERED APPARENT INTERNAL CRITICISM OF THE HIGH COST OF THE LATEST IRANIAN OFFENSIVE. HE DENIED IRAN

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>SSES AND CLAIMED THAT IRANIAN FORCES HAVE INS AND WOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO. HE QUESTIONING THE REASON FOR PURSUING THE 1TIVATED BY NARROW IRANIANCTUALLY INTENDED TO SPREAD ISLAM

>J FROM

r AC KIM OIL TI

SHIPPING :ALS, INCLUDING THEHAT SHIPPING IN THE PART OF THE IRAQI ECONOMIC ), HOWEVER, THAT IRAQ WOULD JD IF IRAN ALLOWS IRAQ TO

ROUGH THE Gl

Original document.

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