IRAN-IRAQ WAR MAR-JUN 1984

Created: 3/6/1984

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

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UNDAY. AYATSLLArt KHOMEINI CHIUCUfcJ MHO WANT TO END THE MR. HE ALSO DENIEO IRAN HAO SUFFERED HEAVY LOSSES IN THE RECENT FIGHTING AND CAST IGATED IRANIANS WHO ARGUE THAT IRAN SHOULD TRY TO |

COMMENT: jRAN HAY BE PLANNING ATTACKS BOTH NORTH AMD EAST OF AL BASRAH. THE IRANIANS PROBABLY HOFE TO USE THE NEW BRIDGE TO MOVE MORE FORCES INTO THE MARSH AREA FDR AN OFFENSIVE TO THE SOUTH TO OUTFLANK IRAQI DEFENSES. THE ATTACKS COULO COME LATE THIS WEEK. WHEN IRAN COMPLETES REDEPLOYING TROOPS TO THE SOUTH.!-

TEHRAN PRESUMABLY IS MAKING CONTINGENCY PLANS TO ATJACK SHIPPING BOUND FOR INAQ'S PERSIAN GULF ALLIES IF BAGHDAD DISRUPTS IRANIAN OIL EXPORTS. ATTACKS ON SHIPPING IN THE GULF WOULD ENABLE TEHRAN TO RETALIATE WITHOUT CLOSING THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ AND CUTTING OFF ITS OWN OIL EXPORTS. |

KHOMEINI'S SPEECH IS ANOTHER INDICATION THAT LARGE NUMBERS OF IRANIANS ARE WEARY OF THE HIGH CASUALTIES AND ECONOMIC BURDENS Of THE WAR. CONSERVATIVE SENIOR AYATOLLAHS WHO OPPOSE KHOMEINI'S POLICIES MAY BE WILLING TO URGE CHANGES ON KHOMEINI AGAIN IF THE DISSATISFACTION LEADS TO PROTEST DEMONSTRATIONS. KHOMEINI IS IN NO DANGER ng lOCTMf! rrwTPni HflwFVFR. AMD HF HL1O CHANGE HIS POSITION.

Original document.

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