IRAN-IRAQ WAR MAR-JUN 1984

Created: 3/22/1984

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

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IRAN IS EXPERIENCING PROBLEMS WITH LOGISTICS AND PC03IT PREPARES FOR ITS OFFENSIVE IN THE

ON TUESDAY AYATOLLAH MDNTAZERI. AYATCLLAH KHOMEINI'S HEIR APPARENT, PUBLICLY ACCUSED MILITARY COMMANDERS IN CHARGE OF THE WAR OF BAD PLANNING. HE INSTRUCTED COMMANDERS NOT TO SQUANDER POPULAR SUPPORT AND TO PREPARE ATTACKS THAT LEAO TO VICTORY. HE SUGGESTEDPECIAL CORPS OF MILITARY PLANNERS BE ESTABLISHED.

ONTAZERI'S COMMENTS INDICATE TEHRAN ISTHAT THESE OBSTACLES COULD REOUCE ITS CHANCES OFTHE COMING BATTLE. AS MORE IRANIAN TROOPS ARE MASSED INAREA. TEHRAN'S LOGISTIC DIFFICULTIES COULO INCREASE.OFFENSIVE. HOWEVER. PROBABLY WILL BE LAUNCHED DESPITE

RAQ-IRAN: COUNTERING SUBVERSION AMONG THE SHIAS

IRAQ IS MOVING ON SEVERAL FRONTS TO COUNTER IRANIAN ATTEMPTSIRAQI

SINCE IRAN BEGIN ITS SERIEST7ACK5 AL3V3 THE SCSDErf LAST MONTH. RADIO TEHRAN HAS BEENAJOft PROPAGANDA CAMPAIGN TO SUBVERT IRAQ'S SHIA COMMUNITY. THE IRANIANS ARE CALLING ON THEIR IRAQI CORELIGIONISTS, WHO MAKEILLION OF THE COUNTRY'SILLION PEOPLE, TO OVERTHROW PRESIDENT SADDAM HUSAYN.

HE IRAQIS HAVE COUNTERED IRAN'S HE SHIAS' PATRIOTISM AND ARAB

PRIDE. THEY ALSO NOTE THAT SAOOAM IS PERSONALLY POPULAR WITH THE SHIAS AND THAT SO FAR HE RETAINS THEIR LOYALTY. IN RECENT UELL-PUCLICIZED TOURS OF SHIA AREAS, SADDAM "IAS RECcIVED ENTHUSIASTICALLY.

HE IRANIANS. WHO PROBABLY UNDERRATE THE STRENGTH OF THE IRAQI SHIAS' NATIONALIST SENTIMENT, ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE TES8QRIST ATTACKS IN IRAQ TO COINCIDE WITH THEIR PLANNED MILITARY OFFENSIVE AGAINST AL BASRAH. IRAN ALSO WILL CONTINUE TO AIM PROPAGANDA AT IRAQ'S SHIA COMMUNITY--AND AT THgERCENT OF THE MILITARY'S ENLISTED RANKS COMPOSED OF SHIAS.[

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