Created: 3/6/1984

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

National Intelligence Daily




IRAN-IRAQ: lranlan> Prepare lor Haw Allack

7fie Iranians are continuing thci preparationsajor offensive in tne At Bast an aiea.

peech on Sun-Jay. Ayatotlah Khomeini crilldied Iranians wno want to end tne war. He also denied Iran hac suffered heavy losses in the recent lighting and castigated Iranians who argue thai

Iran should try toettlement.!

Iran may be planning attacks both north and east ot Al Basrah. The Iranians probably hope to use the new bridge to move more torces Into the marsh area tor an offensive to the south to outflank Iraqi defenses. The attacks could come late this week, whan Iran completes redeploying troops to the south.!-

Tehran presumably Is making sorrtjngaocy plans to aftack shipping bound for Iraq's Persian Gulf allies If Baghdad disrupts Iranian on exports. Attacks on snipping tn the Gulf would enable Tehran to retaliate without closing the Strait ot Hormui and cutting off ita own oil exports!

Khomelrri's speech Is another Indication that larce numbers ol Iranians are weary ol the high casualties snd accnomlc burdens of the war. Conservative senior aystoaahs who oppose Khomeini's policies may oe willing to urge changes on Khomeini again It the dissatisfaction leads to protest demonstrations. Khomeini Is In no danger of losing eonirol, however, and he Is unlikely to tftanQB his posfltonJ

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