NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY

Created: 5/2/1984

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

Stalled Offensive

Heavy spring rains fiove considerably hindered Iranian forces on tbe

Flooding, trial airnd logitucote dlirupled Tehran'i plinte/or ottitimlretrih fiont.it Halt tamporarlij. Altbough Twhrin apparently Hill plant em attack In that ana and la bringing In mora troopa. Iha dalajt are giving Iraq time te atrenamen in dotettaee end reduce the eht neaiajor Iranian victory. Iranian leadera ilreedfare not bbllng ever blame tor tha heavy toiaea Inaat attack.

ind another maior attbrt thai raiulti In little gain and heavy

losses could caifte tarloua quarrela in the Iranian regime^

southern tront.p

Iranian leaders reportedry are eauaott'nc, among themselves over who Is to blame lor0 toC0 ca&ualt.ea sufe-ed slnoo lele February, according to save-al sources. There was growing concern in some villages In late Match about the large number of casualties among young vWu'ilesfs.r-

continued

SfltfflnJna Iraqi Da lame*

The Iraqis have aaad tha last two months since the snd ot tha lastrfanaive to airancmtf! their de'enses around Al Basrah,

The Iraqis Intentionallyevee to flood Iranianhe sojihem Mafncon Island.

Baghdad also has made command changes

commanders ol sn Iraqi dlvoton thst (ailed to rwuapiure irssrnmMa|noon Island In early March hava Been demoted or replaced)-^

Outleek

Baghdadware thai any major Iranian attack in the next month will have to come In the Al Basrah area, although limited diversionary attawe ere posalblo elsewhere, fan has nearly halt Its entire Army on 'this one trom and would be unable to shift Its forces quloklyj

Iraqi forces ore weaker along the northwest side of tha marsh and along the Shltt el Arab, in several weeks, however, the Iraqis probacy will have heavily fortified these areas loo, turthar reducing the charcee of an Iranian victory, r

it

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