Created: 3/23/1984

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National Intelligence



Warning Page


LED ANON: Political Gestures reward Christiana






and Drute mUiUmmtn are reasserting control over Palestinian lighters and tha Sunni MutaDttunast Beirut probably is an attempt to enforce tbe ceasalne ana facilitate talks with tho Christian millta.

Druie leader Junblati and Amal chief Barri publicly repudiated Lebanon's traditional political proceasos after the talks In Lausanne. Both have called lor direct nogotlatlom with the Christian Lebanese Forces mUIts. They have backed away from their earner statementsalum to violence Is Inevitable, and they ore now expressing hopes that the cease-fire win hold.fAl

B| Ihat closer Hps between inn Murabllun' and Palestinian dissidents hada|or hindrance to Shia and Oruze political Inlllallvo and control ot Was! Beirut. Undisciplined MurabHun and Palestinian fighter* wore breaking lha cease-fire and accused of other disruptivecccS

(The overture by the Shias and the tXrze to Ihe Lebanese for cm haa been received favorably by representatlvea of the Christian mUtila In BetruL Both sides mayreathing space and enforce the cease-tire until new strategies evolve. They probably soo the Suppression of militias they consider marginalecansary first atop,

Syria lost prosllge when the talks In Lausanne failed.esult. Damascus Is likely to hold down the level ot vWence In order to dalm that IIositive Influence In Lebanon. (f|

There Is no effective mechanism, however, lor policing theTho security situation thus will remain unstable evon III hero are

no new military offensives.




SURINAME: Fln.ncinl Problem.

b(1) )






economic consequences ot the monthtong strike by bauxite workers havaew sense ot urgency to Paramaribo's soarcn for foreign assistance. fJMV

rvrith lhe suspension ot other revenue-falsing* measures as part ot tho slriko sett lament, the budget deficit this yoar is expected lo reach0

Igrcnvtng concern among Surinamese businessmen thai the Central Bank will be unable to provWo foreign exchange (or imports. The governmenl already has suspended all Import licenses Issued beforend some Importers have been denied new licenses. H|

Paramaribo hu failed to secure any substantial amount of hard currency assistance sinceovernment officials are Ulnauick Infusion ol iMFfun<

Army Commander Bouterse recently announced thai Uie government will ensure the rational allocation ot foreign exchange, reduce spending, increase tax revenues, and encourage prlvalo Investment to cope with the economic difficulties. f|

Wf The businessmen's concerns are likely to Increase if Paramaribo drains credit available to the private sector by financing the budget deficit largely with Central Bank loans, as It did last yoar. Foreign exchange reserves probably can cover less than one month's worth of imports, and even tighter import restrictions will be noceasory.f'JI

Bouterse may lack the resolve or political dexlerlty to Institute the Jar sua




USSR: Problem* in Training Reaerviala

SUDAN: Reaction to

(3) tho

government broadcasting focHtty last week has aroused ntlle concern about Libyan Intentions among most Sudanoso. Soma believe thai Egypt and Sudan staged the Incident to embarrass Ubyan londor Qadhafi. Tho Sudanese who believe Libya perpetrated the attack aro loss concerned about Qadhofls Intentions than about tho Ineffectiveness of tho Sudanese miliiary. An antl-Ubyan rally held by the government party tho day after the atiack dreweople.

//The attack appears to have had little effect on popular support for the Nlmolrl government. The lowering of public confidence In the military, however, probably will depress Army moral further. In addition. Insurgents in soulborn Sudan may be encouraged to expand their operattonsV/fffffjf


SOUTHERN AFRICA: Military and Political Oeveiopmente South Africa and Mozambique appearj

tat the commission fltswilMearmM

| that

moating of leaders of the Frontline States will be helde planned meeting follows an announcement by the ANC thai It will Intensify Its terrorist campaign against South,

Nyerere. who La chairman of the

Frontline Slates, persuaded Ihe other Frontline leaders to boycott Ihe signing ot the security agreement lost week. The leaders probably wil fool obagod to voice strong support for SWAPO and ma ANC to offset Increasing public sentiment lhal the Insurgent groups have boon betrayed by Angola and Mozambique. They also are akeiy to endorse Ihe strong conditionsuban troop withdrawal stated In the recent Artgoian-Cuban communique. Nortettteiess, tha group probably will otter at least lukewarm backing for the Angolan and MoiambJcen dialogues with South ai.

MtxiCO-COSTA RICA: Financial AaalaUnca

Mexico has loaned Coataillion, an amount that San Jose claims la nrxessary to avert tochnica! default on llsloralciiibanK daSt. Tho loan lawi lo ba repaid by mid Juna.Mexiconsisting lhat Its financial support should not be publicized to avoid problems wllh Ha creditors Costa Rica also haa ranched preliminary agroem-nt vrllh Ihe IMFtandby loan for


President Monge bogan IO try to Improve relations with Mexico laat year, and Msre paying on. Mexico City has long Insisted thai the ecsorsorrac aM It attend* Is not poflllcalty motivated. ThU loan may bo Intended to real ore the appearance ol falrrveate because other Central American COiaitriea are awarsj Of Meatcos subslantlal aid to NicerThe loan prooebry wril be enough to aBow Coata Rica to maka payments on Its foreign commercial Cobt forext Irrw mOfhTuj, Out aassaaaaaaMfll believes lhal IImerelyoreign exchange crisis uniH midsummer. fS


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