NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY FOR THURSDAY 17 MAY 1984

Created: 5/17/1984

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

Cable

Warning Page

PERSIAN GULF:

Oil Shippers More Cautloua

purchasers may be temporarily postponing shipments until the situation clarities following tM attack on Tuesday by an Iranian FA alrcroltaudi Arabian supertanker aboutiles from Res Tanura. Iran's Supreme Delense Council on Tuesday restated Its Intention to retaliate tor attacks In the Gull, and Iraq probsuiy is preparing for widespread alrstrlkes^ Foreign Ministers of the Quit Cooperation Council aremgetlng today to discuss the latest developments ol the war.

0-3

TuesQay nlQht. Iranian Assembly Speaker and Supreme Ootense Council spokesman RafMnjf.nl announced that the Supreme Oefense Council believes the Increase) in Iraqi attacks on shipping calling at Khark Island was Instigated by Frarve* and trta US. He warned thai Tenrun will prevent outer Gulf counlrles from exporting oil to Ihrj extant that Iran's exports are hindered by Iraqi atlacks. Fja*san|anl also warned Iran was preparedeet US irUerventton.ejjj*,

a9*3

Iran's decision to retaliate by harassing theof Iraq's Arab

allies has Increased tne risk of an air clash between Iran and one of

the Gull states. Saudi Arabia may order its pilots to become more

aggressive if Iran repeals Its attack. Rafsanjanl's statement Indicates

that Iran Intends to retaliate for each Iraqi attack but does not yet

p.sn toosing of the Strait of

Gull Cooperation Council Reaction

Following an emergency cabinet meeting yesierday,the Kuwaiti

Government publicly accused Iran of attacking Its teokare earlier this

he government statemeni claimed that new information had

confirmed Iran's role in the strikes. Saudi Defense Minister Sultan.

who arrived In Kuwait lata Tuesday, will remain thero through the end

of (ho week, according to press

>

WESTERN FUftOPt- Conceit. Aboutondition USSR:

We if European govnrnmentB, are growing concerned about the medical condition ol dissident Andreyho tins beenunger strikeay to gain medical treatment abroad

m ntlltta n

nia wife, Elena Bonner.an for_medicoi treatmentnd

3

Agelnit Marco. Continues

President Marcos appears to be struggling with the question ol how to minimise the damage from the electionflfe

Wltn almostercent of Ihe tally comp*eto. an independentlha! me opposition is le*ding Inistricts. Ihend independent:he status ofealsm Manilaercent p( the vote has boonlhe opposition is leading In(ontests. Theor lhe ruHng parly has said the opposition and the

independents will end up wHhould increase opposition strength In the Assembly ai least llvi i

Some vote-tamporjno may be continuing al the local level."

Inweep Uy the opposition predicted In early returns has been reversed, provoking opposition anger and legal challenges. Imeidaof tho Maniio meiropolltan area-is rajmfjodiy furious over Ihe outcome mine capital.shen ;ne elections ccrr^ISTorci^ipf.

tar cot and his ruling party have been idled by Ihe results and laoe decisions on how far to go in manipulating tne vote. The elections commission has tampered wltn results in tne past, and recent eciiom by lhe President and Mrs. Ma-cos suggest that official results covld vaiy aigr.lllcaniiy from mdepundrrl tallies

Sri

ruling party could legitimately establish Ihe load as more returns arrive from Ihe countryside,s strongest. Eerly modla reports CM numerous opposition victories, however. proBably will make voters Skeptical of rna;or donges In the voteBBh,

I! Marcos were to accept the opposition's gain he could use them ic his advantage in loan negotiants with international bankers, who arc locking at the electioneasure ofa: stability in the Philippines. Mrs prestige, and pressures (rem wtfftln Ihe ruling party, however, win proOabfy torcaMarcos to manipulate the vote in order to limit opposition seats'

probably knows ihai massive manipulation of election returns would provoke large antigovernmem demonstrahons in the next week, and this is likely to constrain nis actions. No maiter what action Marcos takes, tho result, are certain to bo viewederious blow to his prosllgo hW/MMh,

8-3

USSR-US: Harassment ot Journalists

authorities Have stepped; up harassment o( American journalist S3

-apparenily

reflects lhe Soviet leadership's pessimistic view of prospects lor an imp rove muni in bilateral relations any time soon.

USSR-SPAIN: Warm Welcome (or King

evidently sought to exploit Ihe visit ol King Juan Carlos to demonstrate that il maintains cordial relations wiih some Wcsi European countries despite strains in US-Soviol relations. The visit, which ended yesterday,elcome at the airport oy Premier Tlkhonov and Foreign Minister Gromykoeeting and formatwltn General Secretary Cherncnko. in his dinner speech tne Soviet leader urged Spam to expand ilo role in peace building and said again Ihai the USSR will not use nuclear weapons against Spain as long as Spain docs not have any on Us territory

T*k3

iThe Soviets presumably hope to encourage Spain to display greater independence (rem Washington by encouraging Madrid to take an active role In reducing East-West tensions.!

k3

Is .

hi

Mi

Revolutionary Guards Leaving

The Iranian Revolutionary Guards in Baalabakk. In ine BefceaBegun leaving Lebanon permanently, according toSyria reportedly Is behind the move because itups sucfias

Syri Iran

The departure ol the Revolutionary Guards, who support Shia lections opposing modems Shia loader Nabihhe Syrian and Lebanese Governments, situation in Lebanon and probably calculate ouid help. Tehran would notuards but is in no position towever. will continue aiding radical, pro-liplornatic and unoffk-ial represents lives.

Ambassador Recoiled

Tunisia recalled Ha ambassador from Tripoli yesterday. fonowinr weojojiincreasing tensions wime))wrbbfftl

the recall was In response to Llbya^eT?urco(border guards sad Its otforls to Implicata Tunisia inon Qadhefi last weekly

ibyan students morcflTcToni

IfKiOihroatened ottscks on the Presidents ol Sudan

d

The Tunisians apparently wish to stand up toThey laiied to mention the border clash on Tuesday mannouncemerit, however, suooestlnq theyvoid

-may nave organized the march without urg.ng from Tripoli. Even so. the marchers' threats may

Libyan subversion against Its neighbors

MO

2 I ? 6

2 1 9 7

B-3

In Drfef

Americas

Middle Eul * -

b3

criticizing Western Europe Union plan to ellminale remaining roitflctlons on conventional arms production by Westeflects Soviet concern about possible Increase In Bonn's Influence in European defense planning.

WeaternEC Foreign Ministers yesterday agreed on need to restrict exports

of five substances used In chemicalifferences over EC's legal authority delay Ccmmurlty-wtrje measures, but soma members have enacted national controu

Original document.

Comment about this article or add new information about this topic:

CAPTCHA