NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY FOR FRIDAY 10 FEBRUARY 1984

Created: 2/10/1984

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

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Top Secret

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National Intelligence Daily

Friday

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Approval for Re Its*

Date Mi

Warning PageB-3

Contents

Syria-Lobanon: Pushing Political TalkB aaajMi*aM**n

Kuwait: Trial ot Terrorists

Hungary: StatemenU on Foreign PoUey

Vietnam-Kampuchaa: Attacks on Resistance Bases

Setbacks lor the Nuclear Industry International: Terrorist Watch Special Analyst* _

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Pros-dent Assad met yesterday with NsHonal SalvationFranjiyah, Keraml. and Junbletl. Earlier Ihis week Assadwiih Lebanese Sunnl notables. Piesident-

reoresemetrve. Jean Obod.MbbbbbbW"as arrived in Damascus.

Beirut remained calm yesterday, although there were

lof soma shelling of Easl Beirut and ot clashes between Christian andmilitias In Ihe KhanubaaSsasjavaaBSBlBJBftjihe Army Is prapartng to resistects along the Alayhetaliation (or the US naval bombardment ol the lastp

Assad probablyuick political deal can be arranged thai meets Syrian damands and Hops the ftghling before Muslim Qelns prompt moves by the Phalange Party to sethristian enclave. Damascus has nol called for Gemayel's resignation .jnd Assad appears to believe lhat accommodation is still

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l( Gemayel does not move soonake poAticel concessions andew prime minister. Ihe opposition forces ere CkjJyncrease mlhary pressure on theCrut. They might take new action along the tldflef'ne, In the Kharrwb, or against tne Chrisiian heart!

KUWAIT: Trill ol TerromU

The Irialoleople Implicated In tne bombings of trie US mbassy and other installations In mid-December will begin tomorrow amid lows o' lurther Iranian-backed attacks against Kuwaiti and US targels-amtj^

Dawa, Hie Iranian-backed Shia dissident group that tne authorities consider responsible for ihe bombings, has threatened additional terrorism ff Ihe suspects are not released. Most of those who aro toraqis, three Lebanese, and threealready admitted to being Davva/nembersajfJI3

The prospect of the trial and an Iranian offensive, combined with recent murders in Paris, probably will persuado Kuwait and other Persian Guff stales to try to placate Iran. Kuwoil.sla^ seems determined to punish the bombing suspects, but ft hopes to avoid public mention ot Shla schemes or Iranian Involvement*'

TopJBecret

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HUNGARY: Statement, on Foreign Policy

saidadio interview last month thai Hungarian policies are not Identical to those ol the USSR, end he asserted lhat national Interests should not be subordinated to common ones except In an "extraordinarye added that the Hungarians would continue to seek East-West dialogue despite current strains In relations between the superpowers. (C)

izurcs's remarks seem designed to portray

to Che Westegotiailng partner not totally controlled by Moscow.

The Hungarians may believe that uncertainties In the USSR's policy

caused by General Secretary Andropov's illness give them some

additional leeway In foreign policy; Budapest will be hosting visits In

the next few months by several Western leaders. Including West

German Chancellor Kohl and Italianlsler Craxl. who are

likely to_encourage Hungarian leaders loore

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also probably was seeking lo reassure the Hungarian people that heightened East-West tensions will nol cause retrenchment in domestic policiesubstantial reduciionestern contacts. Hungary's liberal economic policies and its openpolitical atmosphere are1ources ol popularity and legHlmacy lor (he regime. '

VIETNAM-KAMPUCHEA: Attacks on Rei-alanc*

Ih Information on casualties Is incomplete.)

; soldiers ol the resistance are being treated lor

symptoms*causcd by an unidentified gas. Other press reports say that Ihe Vietnamese also havemall Democratic Kampucti ean se at Chong Be* rwar the Lao border, but no details are available..

fcTho attacks appear lo have only limited local oblecilves. Most Vietnamese torces recently have stayed away from the bc*dor. and there are no Indications o( .mmlnont attacks on the large non-Communist basossouthok or against Prince ihanouk's base at Ta-Ti

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WW!

USSR: Setbacksthe Nuclear Industry

Recent statements by Soviet energy officials Indicate there.win be further delays In the commercial nuctearenergy program.Minister ot Power and Electrification has complainedestern diplomat that new safetyby the State Committee on Nuclearrestricting the places where plants may be located will lead to higher costs, greater technical reQulrements, and slower g'owth In the nudear power program. Soviet turbine designers recently madeajor planning mistake (hat could delay (or some time the manufacturepecial steam turbine needed at some new types of Soviet nuclear plants, two ot which are already under construction. 4Mb*

Comment: The nuclear indusiHy has grown steadily in recent years, but oonsiruclion bottlenecks awl problems with the manufacture of components have retarded progress. The new safety criteria fo* plant location and the difficulties producing turbines will cause more setbacks. The Impact probably win be felthen Ihe affected plants are tc enter service. It could prompt the Soviets to seek some Western components (or nuclear stations orcoisu.id the components.flMMMHHHll

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