NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY

Created: 6/1/1984

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

PERSIAN GULF:

Talk From Bolh Sldea

H hardening III poalllon on lilt Quit oontllct and Ii tailing Iha stage lor lurther atcalttion. Inn ballarta II can praaaure Iha Quit ilalai Mo withdrawing support from Iraq, and II hai boarded tnolrmr thlp In Iha lootharn Quit. Imp probably will retaliate tor Iraq'a lilaet alratrOtea, and Iha Gull Arabi ara

talking additional air dettnit waaponi. Thar* hava ceen no

major changei In oil ipol martttt or Insurance relet.'

Tha ruling Bath Party nawspsco- th-notunad yesterday that Knark island mil be destroyed If Iran launches tbe new land offensive that Baghdad oxpects. To underscore theraq claimed yesterday to nave struck tha Iranian oil refinery at Tabrizumping station near Khotramebad. Anoihar iraajnewspapor warned tha! the contllct win worsen If diplomatic effortsot torce Iran to nogouale.1

Iraq haa attacked the Tabriz rtfirary on three previousf.isting only mode-rate damage. It the refinery has Buttered serious damage this Urns, Iran could low approximatelyercent or lis domestic oil refining capability, fan probably will feel compelled to reta'iate (or Iraq's latest attacks,possibly by trying to nit an Iraqi or Kuwaiti reflrvaryj^

continued

Iran la interpreting efforts at ma UNchieve an evenlanded resolution on the crisisign Wat world opinion is shirting in lis favor and that the Arab position haaecurity Council resolutionng both Iranian and Iraqi attacks on shipping wiilow to me Qui' stoles, whose own draft singled out Iran as Ihe party responsible for tho oscalallon.

Tanker Attack

The identity ot shlps-iiby iraq'a attack onunclear. Some reporting Indicate* thot Itstanker Atlanllcos waa hil. but other reports clafm thatsuccessfully leaded oil at Khark and departed.!

Military Situation

The Iranlana yesterdayingaporean merchant ship that

hadort In Oman bound for Dubai. I

ay. Iranmal' Swtss-owreo tugboat.in thi Hotmui and forced It to proceed tobbas.

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