NID: INDIA: IMPLICATIONS OF THE PUNJAB CRISIS

Created: 6/18/1984

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

Special Analysis

of the Punjab Cricii

Then Pun/ab wlmH It one of the most sorfous /or any tndlen loader since ^dependence. Pr/me Mlnltfr Qondhis

Eft" J a,

borderstttejhtjntocrlt, ot (ha army, and her chance, tor rDetection. mmmmmmmm

Gandh. needs to show continuous progress in restoring orderhe

fl,ainsupport she gained outside Pun,ab lor ihe strong measures taken by the government. She seeks Hindu vofs lo otTsoi tne loss ofbackmg she had among Sikhs and some olher minor.ty

The Pr.me Minister also hasersuade Hindus lhal ihey areSikh rnajonty Farmers there

rev beawryigrant labor trom rtetghboring statesroduce yiiai gram. Wrthoui these laborers.large rjgj cropwaits transplantht be greatly reduced

Government Actions

The Army will be able lo conlaln the violence in the Punjab but will have difficulty stopping it altogether. Military spokesmen sayxtremists are still ai large more, and Army officers speculate that military operations will last until the end of the .ear |

omplex al Amntaar left as manyead, most of mem Sikhs. Theiolence byunjab andesponse lo lha Army aciion nowe waning, however. Soma curfewsotal ban on civilian transportation have been partially lltted.asj

The govrsrnment has declared thai II will deal harshry with ihe extremists, particularly members of banned organisations butns to resume negotiaikma with Sikh moderaiea soon The reaction orweri me moderates againsi me storminghe sacred temple nowever. makesnlikely that Sikhs will reiurn lo the ba/oa.nirva MM .mmedlatery. Many Sikhs are caJtmgampaign ot terrorismi the government

Qandhl'e Options

n ln'8'nal wurlly-wlll want to turn Ita dullea in Punjab back to paramliliary security units as soon as possible ll is eager to mlnlmiie clashes with civilians In a

Sciential staging area on iretn Pakistan. The Punjab crsis and desertions and revolts byikh sold*';rt' morale, out the fJisc.plHior..rnanvasically

.Gandhi has announced plansew task force-to be drawn

nprovide an al.eritehe

rr,a' CrlSeS The DlanS mWofary securily forces have beenCivil disturbanceecent /ears

nTSh, ?n.andhl wi"ftW mon!hs bv cotwed'nfl more avhonty to

the slate government. She is reluctant to gram such concessions

hain

hs fear lhat shes.de SulC^ ^'eS* 8

Looking Ahead

aging her election prospects, the Prime Minister may decc-tate cl emergencyuniab and postponejctlons. She could jusi.ty such a

s ltlfllof extremists In Punjab ore still in hiding and by making new allegations of meddllnq by

foreign powers.

The strong charges by senior Indian officials that Pakistan and the US we aggravating tho unrest In Punfab are dostgnod to deltect blame in on election year They also reflect New Delhi's tendency toa foreign hand in domestic unrest. The discovery ol foreign weapons in

lssT?onls hav0 ^ghtened Gandhi's usual suspicion of foreign meddling. The Soviets are alleging that Sikhre panS conspiracy to destabilize India. |

mimar*aaamst Pakistan. In part because Army units are tied down by the violence in Punjab, if her

domestic support begins to crumble, however, she may consideriversionaryfJef wjm pah|3Ian

S Wvaf sucnmove, mmm

DiA. NSA-

Original document.

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