NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY FOR THURSDAY 8 NOVEMBER 1984

Created: 11/8/1984

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

Warning Page

CHILI

Tighten* Political Control*

(lore el alege endeappointments ot the Cabinet give Presidentemporary edveniage over the opposition, but that mar further pe*arlte the country and erentuall^educe hit *DWt,iaia, the transition ru democratic run- V

lasl week and io alleged efforts by dertwe-aye eippos'tion croups to desUbClrc the government.day measure straxvgthens trie regime's artxlrary powers, noubly Ihe right /

he slate ol siege ha* bean imposed In reactions.

rwja^y

to imprison dissident In secret locations indc'mlieiy

Pinoctiel also hasidnlght-to-dawn curlewa|or clues3 and has called out the Armynforce .-

orced F

I's actions reflect has oetermrnaiwrilamp down on leflistio atar tftso Cs-TioerBtlc rule, atnd to mimrr-aoa torcaafl rwrga/ilzauoft of lhe Cabinet. Pressure- Junta evidently forced Pinochet to back away Irom dropping Jar pa Irom the Cablnel.

order to persuade Jarpatay on.may have had to make ccertrrtf rrienls to speed up the transition tirnetatvie whether he vntl abide by any such cceiwrtlmentf or whether Jarpa wi: stay In the Cabinet remains uncerun afjf,

Pinochet's actions have turincr polarized Chilean potilics by at'crigihenlng radicals advocating violence and by_weakening thoseegotiated

t>3

b3

USSR:n*jr

f he poMlcal leadership lineup si Ihe Revolution Day celebrationsyesfer day was nearly identical lo last year'slorol the reportedly in Defense Minister Ustinov. Partyranked hlgner lltan secretary Romanov but lowerof the Poolld guard. Ftrsi Deputy Defensesubstituted for Ustinov and look precedence over thefirst deputies. General Staff Chief Akhromeyev and WarsawKuilkov. Unfike ihem. Soholov holds no public military other lhan thatirstlstn^

^CfJNBsaa> Trie political lineup indicates thai Gorbachev remains lo Romanov despite Gorbachevs low profile al the Central meeting lasl month. Sokorov's prominence, at

expense ol Akhromeyev and Kuiikov. suggests Ihat he has emergeda strong professional military claimant io succeed

Sokofov's fun duties are unclear, although since0 he

luten the serttor Defense Ministry ufficinl con.ni iioO with Afghanistan he senior political leaderthio may feel more corrtloriaoie with The than win Ms younger Colcaguei*ABSBV*'

f>3

emawisbut noiTh seriousxpected to recover quickly from what may have been attack of artgiriaovernment continues to operate norrnally*

Ijw

LKbon moving to crack down on activities In Portugal of

Moiambscan National Resistance . may bring criminal charges against Portugueseforout worsening relations with Mozambiove il antiregime activity not curbed"

t>3

whalers have resumedseir-imposed moratorium couWf take upseason because ol continued failure to agree sMlthis year's Quota and on eventual end to whai ng

Special Analysis

I" AN:

and the Hizballah

Sharp differences between Syrian and Shia ewtremlsts on goals and tactics In Lebanon have fad lo fncraailna tension and occasional vlolennzlsshea over lha pail all monfrta. Oemaacua has facilitated operations ol the Iranian-backed Hliballah In an eltort lo advance Its own Interests In Lebanon, bul Shia tearorlsm now Is Interfering whh Syrian plans. Damascus, however, probably leers that moving too lorcetully against the Hltbatlah would alienate Iran and prompt the terroilttt to start targeting Syrians.

b3

supports Lebanese President Amlh Gemnyel and Ihe present Cabinet. The Hizballah, on Ihe other hand, remains committed to overtnrowino the Lebanese Governmeni by lores and establishing an Iranian-style islamic republic "JaaJtV

t>3

Syrian troops and HbbaUtn fiohisxs hove clashed several times,has partiallyod Ihe radicals- freedom oflast summei Nonetheless. Damascus has failed toaoainst MurbaUah terrorists and continues lo allowGuards to tram and tndoclnriate Lebanese Shiasunder lis

Dangers lo Syria

Syrian leaders are reluctant to try to suppress the Hizballah because mayeneve they can manipUale the radical Srtiawvemeni to Syria's advantago. They also are concernedotal cracxdown would damage the Sytlan-lranlan relationship and might Jeopardise trie special economic bonefrts-such ashigh-qualilyoil ot low rlcew-that Syria obtains from I'snaSK'

Inyrian movo against the Hizballah could prompt Iho terrorist network to bogln to leigel Syrians or Syrian Interests. Radical Shia leaders have not concealed their contempt tor Ihc ecular Syrian

Original document.

Comment about this article or add new information about this topic:

CAPTCHA