NATIONAL INTELIGENCE DAILY FOR FRIDAY, 21 SEPTEMBER 1984

Created: 9/21/1984

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Con'ents

Embassy Bombing

USSR: CbamenkQ Falls To Sign ODlluary

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East: Explosion in Gut* o' Suar

Opposition Galtier*Budget Problems Ease

In On.'

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Cmbaiiy Bombing

Tho bombing of the US Fmftai i. In IBo/rut ,ettfdn, by tholhed will nol ba tho laat *rta<ft on US tmrgwlM In,

Islamic Jifiad is believed loover name used by radical 8hia groups hi Lebanon supported and directed by elements in ihe Iranian Government The Shia terrorists see* to drive USebanon and toundamentai>st Islamic slate liver

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Tneinad irveatorvK to atlack us interests tn Eastafter the Embassy AnnexInOhave been made egainst US interests In Lebanon ainoe thethe UN SecurttvCouncH resolution criliciiing Israelisouthern Lebanon%

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lad Hint the attack: occunod lo Christian-heldterrorist incidents hove bean Infrequentdemonstrates thai anll-US groups can strikeIn Lebanon. Stringent physical security win not deter iuture attempts or guarantee that targets will escape damageuicide bombing.aused extensive damage to buiid-nos Up toevpioti.vtjflftt

The3 place even more streHns on Ihe reconciliation effort Syria is sponsoring In Lebanon.esult Syria may decide to crack 3own even more on radical Shias in areas under its (oniroltfjj ^

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Top45ecrot

Fails To Sign Obituary

Thm absence ata jgnatorm fromortntod in Pravda yeafar day piobabtf waa atooour to trie /wmber-hro part, /eacfer. MIkhtll,

Tne obituary, to* retired Marshal bt Tank Troops PoiubOyarov. was signed by party secretaries Qorbachov and Romanov. Defense Minister Ustinov,si of the lop rruutaiy 'j

Chernenko appeared briefly In public on Tuesday to award'atus aionalme was Included In an obituaryeorgian writerPravda. Also, Moscow radio has reported thatmember Demichev yesterday conveyed greetings Irom . ,to an International gathering In

Its absence, however, is striking In light ol theof Oorbacnev-arrian with no known involvement In military Jorssadaticn wtth

This combination suggests political infighting In wtucnbe taking advantage oi Chernenko's illness to advanceor broaden haigtnev signed ain th. close it known3

Even an incapacitation olould not adcciualeiyv? nameo II

Included to signal continued political st'ength. Th* nectar ofand' HIL.UHOII among ineend IWvk ,

maiter*no'rr.o

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MIDDLE EAST: Explosion in GulfSum

A Saudi peisengs* Ship bcvrwj from Sugg to Jidda^ -as damaged by atyesterday aBBBaaaVNaVaBaMeeaaalaaw* atsBBasaaaaBBflpa.5tifst apparent pynan tho tea

ui* et Soei since nud-August.BBt,

USSR-TURKEY: New Natural Gas Aoreement

'Pe USSR and Turkey haveoles agreement. Moscow iifillon cuDic meters ol natural gasisingtilior cubic meters annuallyhe Soviets nave

lhWvtr =aj at lesshec* fuel ol! u-key willh goods that have not yet been specit ed aaVHaV h> 3

c. et gzi Is ur-Jfeetynrfican:.rlsh to Twr.ey*ur Suppliescubic meter* o' oei wouio be only around rj percent ote-gy needs. The gas is pianned lor bSe b, industries and oleciric plants lhat could readily *ww*ti to wHernerrveuppWe^ were corrupted SoWl gai isles Iu Turkey, however, could effectively block access lo the European pas market By potential Middle Eastern suooliers because Ihe Turkish

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INDIA: Oppoellion Gelhere Slrangfh

Opponents ol Pnme Minister Gandhi are carting momentum Hi the* ai tempi iohex reeHeeiion. Oc^ortion leader Rama Rao. who was forced out ot ofioe as Chief Minister of India's Arsdhra Pradesh state assembly last monthovernor Gandhi appointed, has gained his posttkn and won an

'.idles opposed to the* government will have Io mobilize public demonstration* and forgo coalitions--as Rao did In Andhraihey are lo challenge Gandhi'sarty in the national elections Gandhi Is likely lo encourage debate on regional security issues to divert attentionjcom the domestic problems that are unifying the opposillor" "

EC: Budgetase

EC members are rea'ing resokjl-on of their snort-term

Foreign and Finance Ministers tenUUVwiy ayis-rtf in rsKeMit Cour.Ci RfiS ts provideJ'to ttmra ml Cumrrsunrly bankrupt

These errangemefitE probably will be confirmee! ati! meetings In early October. They ore likely io allay Ihe EC's Immediate ,

liurnty's'ntnv effort; atclpline are likelyrove Ineffective In the long nm. however, and II almost certainly *ia encounter new difficulties vrfien revenues again

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Fivo-Year Plan

economic ofliclals have said Ihc Economic Planill emphasize ihe Foodihe storage and transportation of agriculturaloffacial welfare prograrBS.enovation of factories "

FNone of the programs reportedly planned forS-90

Plan are surprising, end all of them are carryovers from tho current five-Year Plan. Ihe Soviets, in spelling oul their Import needso rton-Cornmunlst mdustrlal officials, appear eager to move ahead with contracts for Western mnchi-wrven.:ipmcnt. i

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Waalern Europe

Prime Minister Papandreou yesterday replaced savbtafevel Cabinetove represents frfce-lift rathe' Ihan indication ol policy changeF) /

Recent arliclo by Soviet acienllsl presents thooreilcalmaterial capable of degrading porlormance ofaensora and aomondicates Sovietsresearch In techncdogy applicable to

yesterday named new ministers in cnargetate Economic and Science and Technologyeplacements cau/sed by III health ot former heads and possible dissalisfaclion with management by Science and Technologyo policy units in oMIna.JaaVfe (jj

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