Created: 9/14/1984

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Special Analysis



Duarte has markedly anhancad CI Salvador* imaga al hamaabroad by assarting hit authority over tha armad torcat and working to Improve thauman rights i ' TOO days navan relatively calm, but hetra saan no raal progress In resolving economic probiemt orational war strategy.i

Duarla't Achlavamsnls

Theear o'tl Christian Democul has achieved several key objectives

Establishment ol his authority as lhe first popularly elected civilian president In El Salvador in moreentury.

Semite of the) political spotlight from the insurgents

tncreased-auppori from Western ^

Me also hasood Impression during trips) lo Europe and Ihe US. Man week he will visit three of the lour ContsdoraColombia. Veneiueia anddiscuss regional issues and Iry lo gain additional support for hla governrnenlf

Duarta has calmed many of the fears among conservative crvfllana and the mililary lhat he Is bent on partisan relrlbullon and reckless reform. Ha has shown patience and common sense In assarting his luttona! authority aa Commander In Chief of the Armed For

^ it*

He appears lo be gaining the respect of many lop military leaders Both Defense Minister Vldea and Chief of Start Bla/vdon. for example, cooperated In Implementing timely command changes designedhence presidential control of lhe military and lo Improve lta human rights performance Several Army field oflloara suspected ot political

for Rslaasa3


ogjslntive assembly recenlty jppitivod Otiaiitf's lunding "lufiicili raicHm co'rn ssturi winch niobdrily will

UmCillTBToTm cOTn.bMun winch pmbdlily willon on his proposalpt>cia'sTgaTo' ft Vfli'iftlV PT1 Archbishop Rome to and Iheisappearance or US cil(

Major Problama

Duarta was electedlear polilical platform or peace plan and will be hard put lo mobllue me military, Ihe private sector, and tha bureaucracyoharanl war strategy and pacification program In lha near ter rr MM Wk

Prospect* remain poor lor integraiing lha extreme led intopecca-as rvexl March insurgent leaders continue lo declinepan In peace talks ajnedease-fire and In ejections,rerects sharing power with ma

Duana'a admlnlalrallon is parlicularh/ weak on economic isa.es Tha ruling Christian Democrats have opted noi lo Include ccvtaanrailve financial laadara and technocrats In economic planningshb MM AheUaves Duarta'a party ia unlikely lo win conlroTol Ihe iJglWlWe In March, howavar, which may lore* lha admlnlalrallofi loorking arrangamanl wtlh lha rlghllal opposition^



The eiative calm associated with Ouarte'a first months In office la unlikely io endure Military, political, and economic praaauraa almoei certainly will mount at ina country approaches the legislative and municipal elections

Tha moal Immediate challenge may be lha guerrillas' planned lall offensive, although Duarta and hla military advisers appear confldeni of containing any rebel Initiative. In any avanl. U8 matartal. financial, and advisory support will ba essential If Duarta la to transform hla psycho ogicai successes ifjjg concrete solutions to deal wilh lha national crisis'

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