Created: 4/5/1985

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National Intelligence Daily




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Warning Page

General St'.ke

Acting Prmtldmnt Tar/lb martate ol emergency and martial loir todaj to contain tho continuing mntl-reglme demonstrations, now backedeneral . f^^f)

0 Sudanese participated yesterdayostly nonviolent demonstrations in we Khartoum area,arch on the presidential palace. The cetera: suite nas shut conn puQfic utilities, common teal ion i. air traffic and most siores. Bants, and government


President Nlmeiri saidublished Interview yesterday thai hecul snort his overseas trip and .'eturnan tomorrow.


> Decisionsrice reduction and on tie slate(3)

emergency may Be deferred unill Nlmeiri returns tomorrow. In anyoducilon would Do unlikely to Break tne momentum of trieprotests. altriOLCh tne demonstrations may suDside today, tne Muslim prayer)

The Army'a unwillingness over the past few days to engage civilianelf-defens* prcBaoty refects amoivaience In the senior command SBCut Its Bupdort tor the regime. Senior oWicers may try to depose Mmei'i Before Ms return tomorrow, especially if theyoup Is imminent irem middle-graCo officer.


* 7 4









President Same,upport from nay political and military laadars for assuming full presidential powers II Prasldont-elecl Neres dies, but he will teem pressure,rom the left, lo cut short hla tenure and call an early direct

mode: to support take office, cooperate

Neves's condition remains grave following mino' abdominal surgery yesterday, tils linn operation In three weens. Ailer showing signs of improvement following nis operation on Tuesday, he developed new local'ied lung and abdominal In lections

iy also ion pa-

rs O* Ncves's ty have decidea 'eves cannot ieir entrist Liberal

le otf

Front, on Imponent questions such as camg of submimaterlei positions. Tney believe, nowever. mat pubsc opinion and pressure from ihe Congress may force Sarney to abbreviate his term endirect presidential election oy

i that the leftist governor of Rio de Janeiro State. Leonel Brizo'a, Is preparing to marshal popu'ar pressuretiQrMvol^eforer^vemBer iSSS ll Sarney lakes office.

lor some

time ana isosition totrong race for tne presidency if an election Is held soon. amu/MM

loJstered by miliiary suppers and the backing ol Neves's party. Sarney probably can govern effectively, at least for awhile. Nevertheless, he probably would have toonsensus among leaders or lhe diverse ruling alliance before moving forward wtth major political or economic Initiatives ej*aja"a_

leaders will become Increasingly concerned ir pressuresirect election result In social disorders cr an upsurge In fefili! activity. The miaiary would be especiaty anxious II BrUoia appeared toood chance of winning ihe presidency. Sarney would delay calling en election as long aa possible in order io give the coalition's parties time totrong campaignoderate candidate.



7 S


PomiOIo Violence and Antl-US Mo>


Would-be assasgm Ll. Col. Flanramaton publicly asserted yesleroay alter bis capluroS citizen and leaders ol tnree major opposition parties were behind his attemptill Dae The latter has not commented on Fianzamaion's claims.


Opposition politicians arrested include Saccusopulist who led the protests9 that ended In rice riots and the overthrow

former regime. MpM|^MSBBBBBm

Mailftews's Supporters arej^i

':' eBBBseasBBBBsVOoe is using the assassination eitemp: asretext lo crack down further on opposition panies andpringocard to launch another anil-US campaign. Me has been frustrated by US unwillingness to endorse his bid to be elected civilian president, by US cr'tldsm of his tampering with tne electoral process, and by what ha views as Inadequate US economic support forSj)

Doe probably will demand the recall of some US Embassy officials; he may threaten to cancel elections slated for OctoberForeign

Minister Eastman is likely io pushore nonaligned foreiqn policy

The potential for violence is high. Ooe's presidential guard Is undisciplined and In the past nas overreacted to civil demonstrations. Army troops, if called In to keep order, are unlikely to perform any Better. The loyalty of Ooe'3 guards Is also in question because Flantamaton was the deputy commander until he tried to kill Doe.

6 7 9

CHINA-USSR: Minimising the OOalaclei

C.-inescinistryrefuses to se drawn crt tneustactes" in Si-io-Sc-vie: relationsneess conferencesonesday. He admitted matren ine way ofut tnai por;,cn o! his remarks was not reseated if :he officai meeia. Beijing recently has given unusually favoraOie treatment to routine agreements with Moscow, inducing tne annual document on management cf navigation cn tneir oorcsraw-ranking Sovietrotocol on cooperation in educaiion yesterday. aaaaaaV^ /gj

China's re as surer; reshethers. Beijing is to indicate to Moscow that it it wiltingot tne obstacles aside as preccndilions lor improving political ties. This suggests tnat. even if China continues ic raise the three costactes. as ore Chinese diplomat said China would do when Slna-Sovle; talks resume next week, the Chinese maynew flexibility in how they present iheir security concerns. Tnis could facilitate an expansion of. the political eiatcgue if Moscow makes some reciprocal gestures.

I 68 O

Decline In Foreign Exchange Reserves

foreign exchange reserves prooaory fell toillion at tho end Of March Irom their peak last September7 billion. Contrary to rumors in the Western pressuch greater decline caused by accounting errors or losses trom foreign exchange speculation, tho drop results largelyajor Increase In imports, particularly of capital goods and consumer duraoies. Imparts from Japan. Hong Kong, and thotop three trade partners-are running at nearly twice last year's lavali 4aiaV^

faaaeaaaaaa) Chinese authorities probe&ly will move shortly to tighten controls over purchases of Western consumer goods by local enterprises end provincial governments. Although China's reserves are stillto cover more than four months of imports at the presentwants to conserve hare currency for the construction of key projects under the Seventh Five-Year Planince November China has signed contracts with moreillion with Western firms for major development projects.



6 8 2-

USSR: Nationwide PreventiveProgram

Soviets nave announced an amBitiaus program of preventive meoicme for tne next five-year plan pirradhicn will require physical examinationsitizens. The program, which is intended to promote early detection ol cisease and to target areas wish high levels of health problems,esponse to recent negative trends if. Basic health. Tne death rate is reported to have increased rromer thousand in ise3 ton addition, male life expectancy has declined and Blrtn detects have

eicg'am may ne'p -averse tna adverse trends,is widespread CduDt Over its feesiSilily and adviSatilily. Itpersonnel, facilities, and equipment Ihat are already inThe Soviets Claim to beillicn'ruOiei annuallynew programpercent of their Budget for health servicesth's amount stilt wouic Be inadequate to redress thecf hearth care. In the West, only Canada and Ihehave nationwidea: 'nclude

immunizations, laboratory wqru. and cc^nscitnQ.*mHHH%%aaaHH*gg/^p gj


6 8 3

Moscow unhappy* over Castro's failure :o

attend Clterne.tkoelieves Cuban leader signaling displeasure over recec; economic arc military aid cutbacks. says Moscow to

Monduraa homingicaraguan Army troops and seven trucks tne: acetoj'lyeder anagua pressing fcr return

l no asylum requests. Put sone detainees fear Sancinlsie discipline oneturn aaammmf

toflBaVHiBBiaeaaeWaaeBBeB. .

Nicaroguomillion snort-term. possibly to tfnance csmmocity. equipmentofia has provided Managua more tnanillion in economic aid

South Korea has accectzd North Korea's propose: to resume oKic'si economic talks onay at Panmunicmemiofficial Red Cross talks will open onay in St

locket fired yesterday a; Jordanian airline' taking of from Athens.razed plane out did netan of campaign by Syrian-backed Palestinians against

MiddleMorocco lacing serious flourxpected to worsen

1-6 8 4

through May because of lock of credit to buy USumors of food erica hikes and osntlnued austerity sharply Increase prospects for unrest,

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