NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY FRIDAY 5 APRIL 1985

Created: 4/5/1985

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

National Intelligence Daily

Friday

55

Warning Page

SUDAN.

Acting President Teyytb maytate al emergency and martial law today to contain the continuing anti-regime demonstrations, now backedeneral strike.

0 Sudanese parhOpated yesterday III mosiiyin ir.emarei nr> ifi^

presidential pa-'acej

of rne Sudanese National Security Councilhad .agreedtate of emergency and mariiai law should Be declared.

Nimein mOutis-ea Interview yeitercay mat ne wc^sdcutverseas trip and return to Sudan tomorrow.

rice reduction and on the aiaie of emergency mayeferred until Nime-ri returns tomorrow, in anyeduction wouldunlikeiy to D'eak the mgmentum of tnere demonstrations may subside today, tne Muslim prayer day.

Army's unwillingness over the pas: few days to engage civilianopl In self-defense probably rollec'sne senior command about Its support for the regime. Senicr o'l.cers may try to depose Nimeiri before his It turn fomerrow. especially If tQey perceive aimminent frcm middle-grade

officers

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Violence and Artli-US Moves

Monrovia la feme following allegations ot US Involvement Inasesalneilon attempt against Head of Sio'o Poo on Monday and tresia of malor opposition leaders, km

the erresrs ot ma/or opposition leaders.

wouic-oe assassin Lf. Col. rianzamaton publicly assorted yesterday alter hla captureS citizen and Jeadcrs of three rnalor opposition parties were behind his attempttQjjjMDoe. The latter has not commented on Fian;amaton's claims sssaasVLw

Opposition politicians arrested include Baceusopulls:

who led tne protests9 lhat ecfled 'n rice riots and tie overthrow >

me M

Mattnews's supporters are

4aVHk9li>oe is using trie assassination attemptretext

creek down runner on opposition parties andprlngDoard to launch another anil-US campaign. Me has been frustrated Dy US unwillingness to endorse his bid to be elected civilian president, by -US criticism of his tampering with tie electoral process, and by what he views as inadequaie US economic support for Liberia.

Doe probably will demand the recall of some US Embassy officials;threaten to cancel elections slated lorS.Eastman Is likely to pushore nonaligned

coiicv

policy.)

The potential for violence is high. Doa's presidential guard Is undisciplined and In tne pasl has overreacted to civil demonstrations. Army troops, if called in to Keep order, are unlikelyerform any better. The loyalty of Ooe's guards is also In Question because Flanzomaton was the deputy commander until he tried to kill Ooe.

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inimisingttsfca

A ChineseiniJt.-yrefusede crawnon the "three oDStades"C-5avie: relations curing the weekly cress conference on Wednesday. Hed that there arcrie way otut tnat par Con si his. remarks was no! reseated In the olfiCial media.ently has rjiven unusuaily favoraole treatmentoutine agreementsoscow, inducing the annual document on menagen-fil Ol navigation on their Borderow-ranking'otocol on cooperation in education yestercv MBTel

' Despite China's reassurances to tne us anc others. Sctjng is continuing to indicate to Moscow thai ii is willing io se; the oostacles aside as preconditions !o; improving political lies. This suggesls thai, even If Cninas to raise ine three oostacles. as one Chmese dipicmat said Chinado when Sino-Sovtoi talks resume nexine Chinese mey snow new flexibility in how they present their security concerns. This ccutd facilitate an expansion of the political dialogue if.MoscowiiS3 some reciprocal gestures.

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CHINA: Decline In Foreign Exchange Reserves

China's foreign exchange reserves crcoasiy fell io roughly Sl2 billion at the end of March from their peak last Septembern. Contrary to rumors In me Western pressuch greater decline caused by accounting errors or losses from foreign exchange speculation. tne drcp results largelya|or increase in imports, particularly of capital goods and consumer durables, imports from Japan. Hong Kong, and ihetop three trade partners-are running at nearly twice las: years levels

Chinese authorities prosaoly will move shortly to lighten controls over purchases of Western consumer goods by local enterprises and provincial governments. Although Cnina's reserves are stillto cover more than four months cf imports at tne presentwants to conservo hard currency for tne construction of key projects under lhee-Yoar. Since Novembor China has signed contracts wltn more than StO billion with Westerniner development projects.

5 Act) ISSS

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USSR: Nelionwide Preventive Medicine Program

Soviets rave announces an errtbiticus aragrjn o! preventive medcine to< tne nex: five-year plan) which will require physical exem-nalions lor all ciliiens.agram. which is intended to prcmoie early detection of disease andarget areas witn hign levels cf health problems,esponse io recent negative trends in base nealtn. Trie death raieeported to nave increased fromer thousand3. In addition, male fife expectancy nas declined and birth defects nave

rogram may hetp reverse the adverse trends, but

there Is widespread doubt Over its leasibifily and advisability. It will require personnel, facilities, and equipment that are already In short supply. The Soviets claim to beillion rubles annually to tne new programpe.-cen: ofudget for health servicesBut this amount still would Be Inadequate to redress Ihe marginal level of health care. In tne Wesi. only Canada and tne Scandinavian countries have nationwide programs trial include sc.ie.di Immunizations, laboratory work, and counseling.

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'Moscow uonappy over Castro's failureitend Ct-.ernar.koeiievcs Cuban leeder signaling displeasure over recent economicioays Moscow lolBHbsV

Honduras- holdingicaraguan Army iroopa and seven trucJcs thaLOCSiflenlallv crossed Border _Jdanagua pressing lor return

jno asylum

some detainees tear Sandimsta discipline cn tr.eir return.)

Nicaraguaillion snori-termossibly to linance commodity, equipmentofia has provided Mans more0 million In economic aidl'.|

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South Korea has accepted North Korea's proposal io resume official economic talks onayemiofficial Red Cross talks will open onay In Seoul.I

fired yesterday at Jordanian airliner taking off from Athens.razed plane But did not. par; cf campaign by Syrian-backed Palestinians against Jordan!

Morocco facing serious flourxpocteo IOMay Because of lack of credit to buy USfood price hikes and continued austerity sharply

prospects for

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Special Analysis

AFRICA-NAMIBIA:

Army Coming of Age

South Africa hasecade lo preparing Ils South Wast African Territorial Force lo assume responsibility lor Pretoria's eountarlnsurgenc, campaign In Namibia, an ellorl thai iseoeble, shifting the burden ot the fighting to olher Namlblen troops and severe! units ot mercenaries. South Africa has reduced casualties, cosia. and opposition lo the war at home. At present rates ot growth and with continuing South African support and leadership, tnia Namlblen force probebi, can take over ail ground operations against the Insurgents In two or three /ears. Help tram South Alrlca will remeln essentlel, but the torce could by then rival or surpass the ground combat lorces ot most black African slates.

Trie Territorial Forco

The Territorial force inducesCOamibiansouth Africans Although black, volunteers fill the ranks, most officers, sergeants^and leehnlclans are white* from the South African Defense Force.

South West African Terntorlal Force it organized primarily as light infantry for counterms urgency operations aga-ns: the South west Airica Peccie's Organaailon. Moat comoat unitsortr-crn NamiDia. where tney obstruct SwapO'i path from guerrilla bases in southerno targets among the white-owned settlements and property in centra! Namibia. They supplement and take their lead from in* South Afncan Defense Force's contingent Inwhich numbersrogosand depend on Soutn Africa lor logistic, a andupsi--

NamlEC perci

wmcnoeK expancea tne pool oi mutter raised the age limit for compulsory ser legtstration of males of ail races

Pretoria could strengthen the Namlblen force by ensuring that most of lhe seconded South Africans remain with It. Bonuses are offered to tnose Officers who agree to stay on permanent!)

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continuedJ^ro^

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Impllcalions for Hla UN

Tne development ano increasing capabilities of the-Soutn Wen African Terrlioriei Fore* present Western negaustorsroblem tnat probably *as not envisionedrten me UN plan lor Namibian maepe-icencc was drafted. Ttm plan call. SCO-man UN torcc so disband an territorial forcesconfining to bases an NarmOie upWAPO guerrillasCO Souin Airman trpopa Tne UN fee* appears inadequate 'or these tasks, and Soutn African defense official* probably -cute resist disbanding trie Territorial force

eceives ita independence. Pretoria nopea tnemm Become tne coreaminian national arrr.y. ensuring continued South African Influence with tne regime. Tnis wouldifficult undertaking that would require modifying the UN plan. But if it could se arrangad. It would improve Namibia's prospects for stability, ll would avoid dispersing thousands of veterans diseruniled over their lost pay and poor prospects forWkW

Outlook

5 0 8

The force's growing maturity gives South Africa rr.ore flexibility in Namibia. Pretoria may. for example, use it me'eiy to continue its countennsuigency campaign and postpone Naminian independence indefinitely. Of ii may reiy on it. with South African sir and logistic support.eg-me recognired only by Souinindhoea. thusouth African withdrawal whiia preventing SWAPO from taking over. If. however. Pretoria is persuaded that including the Territorial Forceational army would guarantee leverage over any government that came to power in wmdnce- jj might be ancouraged to accept ndesenc-nce for Namibia

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