NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY FOR 15 MARCH 1985

Created: 3/15/1985

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

National Intelligence Daily

Friday

5

Cable

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Top(/efecret

Warning Page

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Military Activity

Iran's mitack in the marshes eopaars to have tailed, although Tehran wojwns- launch new operations in the central border region

ts tiuopt nave regaled some area* mey toll anpefenses around Hie itaraanTne speaker ot tne iramai parliament nas described tne at]

Baghdad StyS It wiU txempt tne Iranian city ot So'uierd fiom further attacks Because tne aniens ot mat oiy have staged demonstrations iamjt the Iranian reclme and lhe war.

round reinforcend air.ave prevented the Iranians from eapano.ngridgehead, ano Tehran could be caBing ine operationo eiptam lhe tack of progress. The movement of Iranian troops in the south and central areas, however, suggests that oiher attacks could oe launched across the marshestao'c diversionary operation oegun larther north.

et Soviet-made missiles from

Although the Iranians may Oe trying Damascus and Tripoli

tran istoto detonate oomDsraqi cities ano claim ihoy are missae eipios-ons.

Baghdad probably believes its raids on ernes are weakeningit ia likely to increase tti missile and air attacks but to oilersame time iocourago lurtnor unrest

in Iran. --

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Program Under Novel

ltdhanges Iti with Kail

rpj8 fell.

soon lo o'oposa ms'oi evolopmenl ol sensitive ipetllment to Ostler relations

Iheitary estabfiinment. in particular, strongly supports indigenous nuclear researcn efforts and has significant control over key portions of thai program. Neves hai appointed outgoing Vice President Oaves lo head the governmentrial formally administers al civilian nuclear. Cnaves is wedded to the mfl.genoo* nuclear program and he is likely to perrrot ine Navyrufi tome *ens.tive nuclear projects from civilian lo miMary facilities.

JNe.eshrewd politician, wno win no: readily cede full ionlrol ol noctear programs lo ine military. He also is sympathelic io ine scientific eommunitys ocposiyoi to poteniial weapons appi.cailons Of nuclear research*

President is popular and has workedtookd reianonsrxp with me mitxary. vmiie making it clear he opposes nuclear weapon* deveJopmeni. He appear* to nave no personalner io drastically alter BranTs nuclear program or io Chacenge me nw.iarys rote In It. Nevertheless, tie Is likely to use hisa cnQ.aiMy to nfii spiie Influence over the nuclear program "

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mama

Diminishing French Assistance

udgettvr.cs miliiary and technical

assistance to OlacX At/lean countries, further straining relations

already mode tense Or France's reluctance to challenge Libya's continued occupation ol Chad.

programs lor such close French allies as Ivory Coast, Senegal, Gabon, and Ojitiouli have bean affected,ne-third^^

difficulty rcpiac.nqi^cn

Ileal personnel in Ivoryancn cient stales arc having Ity replacing departing French advisers and Inat such stalwart supporters as Ivorian Prcs-dent riouanouetOoiflnT are co^iusionea wilft Frenchuz

lack Africa and Francohave endured the criiesioniraiion. economic decline, and the Socialist patty victory inow are undergoing inelr mosi severe lesl Because ol Potis's Oudgel cuts and tne French withdrawal from Cnad. This year's sharp reductions follow several years ot gradual declineeak aid levelUilon perade France the principal Western power in Olack Africa.

AHhovgn France continues to claim lis role in Africaey *fo us statusorld power, it la acutely awareannoi fund Its activities at previous levels. French officials now seek to> mate out the aid Ourdans wlin me IMF and lha uS".ine likelihood that French influence wiih Alncan clients will diminishesult

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In Grief

raixltni-cMci Neves had emergency appendeciomy Uita* Dean tn ooodresident pusumatu, wia take over wt-te Neves convalesces.

Salvadoran Army Has uncoveredjaiges; guerrilla suf

smce insurgency Per,

overnment press conference soon.

1 Iraqi planes sei fire yesterday to small tanker on way fromraq damaged another loaded tanker on Monday. _ -

Iransoon" will place on trial two North Yemeni* who hijacked Saudi Arabian airlinerehran in earlytilt no trial set foriacker(_oi Kuwaiti aininer in December wnen two US ofl.eiaJi were killed :

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Vicen Goroachevndon i,

met with Soviet General Secretary firsi meeting Between Ch.nese officialoin expressed desire to

allowed prominent reluseruk coupleeave lor US |uil

eathmodnotaoierelease of

IwO yearsl

South Alrica caDutet ministers' vijil io MozambiquePraiorla's commitment to salvage Nkomatlrelations strained recently by continuingattacks, Maputo's claims Pretoria stiltj

continued

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ere!

Special Analysis

Visil

Allonsin's visit to Washington next wee* Is designed ro generate support tor his government aatn Internationally and ai name. Alionsln proDaoty wilt emphasise tits desire lo strengmen bilateral relations and seek US backing lor his el for is id obtain generous treatment Irom International creditors

President continues to enjoy Oroad public support despite

flOO-percent mllation and rising unemployment, according io opinion

polls. Mis governing Radical Party nas been aided by serious

dissension among the opposition Peronists. Allonsin's relations with

tne military and laoor are strained, however, and in corning months he

is UKely to fac-yripunting oppor.ocn to necessary -conomic tuster.ly

measures

most imcofiani of Allonsin's loreign policy successes to date is ma signing of trie Beagle Channel Treaty with Chile, which ivas overwhelmingly approvedopular referendum last November. Tna treaty was ratified oy the Argentine Senatelose vote, yesterdayj^

ing to oalance hisiies wltn the West andide Spectrum of Argentincs.1

m the Nonatgned Movement and ijon disarmament conlerence in India earlv

To Br Raisad

hi i- -tfonsin intends toroad range

^ ol issues wiih US policymakers.

Me probably will contend Argentina is trying, despite difficulties, to comply with the IMF austerity program negotiated late last year. Me win ask that Washington inttuence commercial fenders to ease terms lor debt rescheduling and

new loans.

He is likely to request US assistance in resuming the stalled Argentine-Brhish negotiations on the Falkland Islands.

continued

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I

- On Centralifonsin probablyreassert support lorconiadora process. Me may seek assurances thai lhe US will noi Intervene iTtitilarily. but he is noi likelytiack US policy openly.

Me mav argue lhali Nccaragua. which have received credits lor Argentine goods" are primarily commercial and are consistent with his eiforii toalanced foreign policy.

he is likely to ask thatuS step up its support lor ftM spread of democracy in Latin America,hite.

He mayew hamisc regional issues

is likely lo express full support lor the fight against narcoucs trafficking in Latin America. Allonsin has been working actively lo combat growing cocaine iraffickino in"

He may urge inieniifled arms control efforjs by me superpowers, an issue on which he feels strongly. "

Aiionsm may reiterate Argentina's recent endorsement of safeguards on its nuclear exports but is unlikely lo accept tuff international safeguards on me grounds thaiwould Mhtoii peaceful nue'ear development. He also may repeat nis view mat the Non-Prohteration Treaty, which Argentina has refusedign, oiscriminaies countries that possess nuclear weapon*

Special Analysis

NTtffnuet in Derelopme Counlnei

Trie tntctnationti tlnmnctet situetton win remsinssnext throe to five

eveloping counfr/ti. tven fo melntaini/iu,reou're cooptrstlon *nd herdcreditors end debtorslimete of tetorebieconditions. As eerly mt this yeer. difficulties Ingoeis could lead ton some

suspenslono^ew money, end Increased creditor

unsettling development is the increasing ttndency wlin which Latin debiors are airing thalr financial voufrltt,f meetings with their creation. Latin American countries have iougm to apofy percent pressure for additional debt solutions Their goal is toolitical dialogue on debt ji ineej* ai BOvernmeni in ine industrial naii

The outcome of tne meetings to data suggests tnat Latinto suopon joint action so rong astfoes not tnreaiento negotiate individually with creditor banksatin oebtors seern even more ready man oeiorene potcies and operations ofand privatewin se wteiyipr a.ee thee acnont asresgcnsipfe for concessions mey receded fromlast year

chaaenges to Oxcenyanc-ng

rciaie to cectors4 failure toMr-suoponed programs and creditor* reluctance to lend new money. Trade protecE.on.sm bycounif.es andn real -merest rates atso win o* key issues. Moreover, because these prowems may prevent ceDtors-wrtxcutariy ,he Latmi-lrom relating tne progress made fast year, the toneatin debtors* pronouncements may Decern* mora itTiCMoi "

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Special Analysis

Delay in Memborohip

EC members publicly remain commlltad lo bringing Spain and Portugal Into lite Communityui soma officials concede that tha Impaste over accessiontime-consuming proceduraldelay lhe new membershipelay probably would plunge the Community Into another budget crisis and could complicate the Spanishotforts to win public support tor NATO membership.

have stalled since December becausebeen unable to agree on positions on in* issues ol fishingand social alfairs. Fishing rignis (or Spain pose [tiestumbling Block; Portugal's negotiations arc

complete, duintry remains tied tolljAtt U_

Al issue Is how soon Spain's fishingworlds fourthbegranied access to EC members' waters. Madridransition period, of no more man seven years!

>hicn nave substantial fishing interests. Tear damagendangered slocks and favor strict controls through theB

Time Running Out

EC Foreign Ministers willajor effort to resolve iheir differences atmeeting beginning SundayBrussels Olplomatic reports Indicate they are likely to reach agreements on wine and olive oil production as wcl! as welfare benefits for Iberian workers in other EC countries. The fisheries Question, however, prooabty will need lo be referred to the EC Summit set forarch. Also working to delay the deadline is Greek Prime Minister Papandreou's tnreai to veto enlargement unless EC members provideor agricultural development in Greece.Baaaar1

EC officials believe tne issues must be settled in principle by the end ot this month, to keep me lengthy procedures associated with ratilytng me membership treaty Irom pushing entargemenl past the target date. Most ol theational parliaments Involved could approve the treaty by December, but ratification mighi become an election issue in France and Greece.

EKS23

continued

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io Fiance, me campaign for next year's parliamentary election begins this rati, ona Gautlisi candrfoies may argue mai enlargomeni should be subiectational relerenoum in Greece. EC aid could Bgjgjflo. an issue in me parliamentary election mat is due bygg)

on EC Budget

Many EC olUcials believe mat enlry ins Out ot tne question, so mat missing the deadline next January would put oil entryne-year delay almost certainly would reopen me deoate over EC ilnances mat tentatively was settled last year. TneCommission counted on enlargement next year ano planned lo draw on me anticipated increase in resources to cover an estimated S3 billion shortfall in5 budget, unless Spain and Portugal are adm.ttcd neat year, me Community is likely to lace insolvency once again. |

Spanish Reactions

Spanish officials say publicly mcy can wait until more favorableonnegotiated. These statements probably are Intended bom lo exert pressure on EC members to compromise and io prepare the Spanisn publicossible delay >n

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Madrid has linked EC membership to its conlinuing Support lor NATO and Prime Minister Gonjalei probably hopes to maintain pressure on tne Ten by claimingelay in EC entry couldegative impact on Spams commitment to NATO. Spanish officials have told US diplomatsompleted accession agreement probably would ensure pubMc suppori (or NATOeferendum early next year, even if ihe agreement came too late to allow membership .n

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