Created: 3/25/1985

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National Intelligence Daily



.Warning Page

Slronger in the South

Prdsldent Hebre has Improved his political position In trie south with some recent mlllteiy successes end his first tour of the region, but deep-seated ethnic divisions end Libyan meddling eje Ukelt to prevent natlontreconciliation anfBoon. ttaaamuW

3 "thatlighting beiween HatJto's northern troops and southern rebels has become fairly localized and sporadic. Moreover,ormer dissidents in the soutrt nave lolned me government's sice since January. haDre was well received in principal southern cities or* his recent lour, during which he promoted reconciliation and promised to curb mistreatment by northern officials and troops.

jflfflpmBft Hflbre can mainiain the military Inlllailve in ihe south

down Ihe excesses ol his iroops. he may convince both southerners and France met only his leadership can bring peace to the region. Southern dissident groups remain militarily weak and fragmented.


security situation remains fragile, however, because southerners still mislruai the predominantly northern regime. The rainy season-usually the rebels' most activesoon, and (he recem millers io the government may re-urn io armed opposition wnen N'Djamena is unaDle io pay promised salaries. fflPsV-

Libya probably will try lo undermine Habre's reconciliation campaign by stirring ethnic tensions and increasing its military support to Ihe rebels. Pans Is likely to continue jjs efforts lo unitn southern exile groups in order lo increase pressure on Moure to negotiate with them.*

aren iftSS

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CREiiCE: Second Round Ol Elections

'Cnris'os Sartictaiis. t'te presideniial cancicaie of Prime Minister Papandreou's Sccinlisl Party, receivedfarliamentary votes needed to win in llie second round ol balloting over tne weekend. Those voting lor Sariielakisocialist.ommunist, and four independeni deputies. Acting (Presidentocialist parliamentarian, did noi panicipate. alinougli trie Socialist-dominated Partiameni last week ruled he could do so. The Conservative opposiiion called ihesnam"he government unexpectedly introduced color-coded ballots to distinguish Dalwcen inosc voting tcr Sarlzeiakrs and those casting a

h .oxhiank vote. The third and final round is set lor Friday, when it will take

D Wcnly 1B0 votesew president. assNsaans*

aaaaaBBaaWSarizeiakis is favored to win the third round ofOut onlylim margin. Prime Minister Papandreou's use of color-coded ballots is an obvious ettempi to enforce party discipline and ihus mainiaio me winning edge. Under Greek law, ballotingupposed to be secret, ana me Conservative opposition will use tne government's latestwltn me decision lo allow Alevras :oquestion tho legality of Ihe entire proceedings. The election of Sariistakls moynort-lived victory for meesultoftrong backlash from the electorate In the nox: parliamentary elections, due no later October..


eicn ills')

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f ormei Oirector ol Selvadoran National Guard, retired General Jose Medrano. assassinated Saturday .responsibility claimed by Farebundo Marti National Liberationrobably part of guerrilla campaign to show strengih oefore

Bolivian labor confederation rias ended prolonged generalespite wage increases, seitlemcni represents wic-lory lor President Sites over radicalise improves cnaneesiling eiections in July. fj^^P /

Liberie to register two small moderate parties Id' elections Out not larger leftistead of state Doe hopes elections will appear contested andeftisis may merge witn legoi parties and not resortiolence


Danish Parllamen: debates SDIinority coalition governmen! supports endorsing resaarcnarliament likely to avoid stand on research or deployment end reler matter to study committee.

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SpOCItll Ai - i

I'lml Weal n-

Wen Beirut hatattlefield contestedariety ol sectarian end Ideological lactloni. Tuit battles, terrorism, kldnaplngs. rempent street crime, end the leek ot central authority have made the City extremely dangerous both tor local residents and forho Lebanese Government probably will remain powerless to reassert control over West Beirut, pans ot which have already become_nmngholds of the radical Shfa Hizballah movement.

mainstream Snia Amal movement nominally controls Ihe largest area of West Beirut, but radical groups operant freely throughout Amal's terriiory. Druxe, Sunni, and Sola fundamental 1st militias also have staked oul claims to specific neighborhoods. I



Shia fund amenroups associated with Ihe radical Huoailah have grown particularlyany ports of the cilyj

Neither ihe Lebanese Army nor ine Intarnal Secuiity Force exercises any real control over West Beirut. The Army probably would aplll along sectarian lines JT II were sent In to reassert authority there, and some Christian units pioSabl/would refuse oven lo enter ihe western pari ol the city astjBjBjts,

The absence ol government authority has createdenvironment in which free-lance terrorism and street crime flourish. LeMneae and foreigners are be-ig robbed and kidnaped by apoiibcal ihuga. at well as by reugroua and political factions. The endemic vioioncehreat lo everyone living or working in West Beirut and facilitates attempts by the HJJballsti to Intgni US citizens and

Special A'.i'v. .


Belgian Government's decision to accept (he tint t6 ground-launched cruise missiles tuts month will keep the NATO deployment program generally on schedule. Continuing uncertainty ebovt the Dutch deployment decision this November endtllied concern that Moicow will hold INF negotiations fiOSfaoe fo limits on the US Strategic Dotanse Initiative still provide tho USSR with opportunities lor undermining Allied unity


lorruin olan Ihc by Occe ihe So v. the CaD mon! hs.

tiitancns's government accepted es lasi Friday will delayntiloughly alate. National elections that must be held

opportunity lor Belgian crlllcs and lenl'a position on INF. particularly il

H will review Its INF policy every si.

toughened their anii-lNF rhelonc in the parLQmemery debate lastdeclaring thai ihey wootcanenthero were agreement on removing the manes Nonetheless, as lorn? as the Social Cfuistians make acceptance otondition o* participating in governing coalition, most oppositionexcept the Fia-rwoh*ocrsiisiswin accept the Vara- dep'oymens as an acco-npl.shealrj>>


The Dutch Decision

acceptance ot INF missiles wilt not make the decision ol lha Chrlshan Democratic-led coalition in The Hague to approve INF deployment In November any easier. Prime Minister Lubbers leys Iho decision atili has to be bnsod on Ihe Parliament's resolution or June!

Despite these conditions, the luooars government will view its INF decision this November mainly in light ol how ilaeijts members' prospects in lha election_

i recent poll shows that the Dutch people are everiTy



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