Created: 3/25/1985

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Rash of Kldniplng* Io Learn

of rising anti-lir.icli and antl-Wcilcrt. cent intern and wvci.il rcecni bombinfis haveculminalcdcn ipalc ol* kidrnipingv und .Uipktuui disappearances of Westerners in Lebanon.

arch. British metallurgist Geoffrey Nashkidnaped by unidentified gunmen a* be was walling lo his orliee near ihc unoccupied US Embassy ebanoery in Wen Beirut.

- On the same day. the Reverend Nlcolatuich Jesuit pricii, disappeared in ihc Bckia Valley near Balabakk. the tirenjhold ot ihc Lcbancic Shia extremitihen ihe pricit'* car was foand several da>s. later, with it *iiote meniioning the "Vengeanceup with which we are not familiar.

U March. British fcuiirteismin Briankidnaped bj Ihe gunmen as he was drivingtreet in Wen Beirut.

. Onarch. US citizen Terry Anderson, ihe chief Middle East cerreiroivdeni for the Associated Press new* lenicc.abducted in Wot Beirut by ihree menreen Mercedes.


Onarch. French consular official Marcel Foniainewas abducted inBeirut as he stoppedhop toewspaper; the three kidnaper* look him awayreen BMW sedan.

On the same day. French Embassy protocol officer Marcel Canon tUappcJicc.his daughter. Danielle Perez, an Embassy sccrciatj

arch, an anonymous callerestern press agency In Beirut claimed thai lilamic Jihad had been responsible for ktcUafeing Anderson and the two Britons, specifically naming all three. He did not mention the Dutch priest. Tbc caller said ihai ihe kidnaping* were "within the framework of our continuous operations against America and lisnd hefinal warning to foreigner* In the Lebanese capital against involvingIn sub-xrsiw i. Z,gflL

Onarch, anonymous callersestern news agency look eredli in ihe name of Islamic Jlhid for kidnaping the three French diplomats at well. The rim caller said Fontaine had been abducted because he wat "an agent or Frenche did not mention ihe other two mining French diploenau. The

2 S

.ftoiid Ciller. doCribinc iK lirst call a> "iaeomnlcic.'" claimed ihtil (damn:ii alio :tbdut.lcd Curiun ande demandedie Frenchli negotiations to tell Mirage tighter* io Saudi Arabia and mop wllinc unit" lo Iraq-^pV

I ihc abduction* nil} have been oppMlunisltc jiudu on vulnerablekidnaping* of Andcriuo and Fontaine, however, aecm tueenAnderson wasan AP phoiott'nphcr when hecantujed.ol>

been followed by nicnreen Mctccdeia yibcfore the Kidnaping. Fontaine had the unwitc habit ofeuspapc' front ihc tame vendor every morning aiact the kidnaper* obviously knew. (fa.


Clainu of rctponiibility in ihc name of Isfcunic Jihad usually indicate that some clement of the Hiibjlljh has been responsible, and wc arc Inclined to ucceni these claim* a* genuine, although it may be thai more than one groap it involved. If Hizballah tcrroiitlt did kidnap Anderson. ihcy probably dieithout the knowledge of piominvni Hiibull-It leader Mohammad Hvsayn Fadbllah. Anderson had interviewed Fadlallah at the latter's home the day before lie was kkfnnped. and Fadlallah his told AP ihat he consider* thisatter of "my ownmeaning thai after servinghostile would neither have inwgstcd nor. countenanced any attack on*


i has suggested (hat.the

*of coarse, that the actions of the Hizballah are inspired by. if not directed by. elements of the Iranian Government. At. ihe same time, however, we suspect thai the Lebaneic Shb estrembts have conducted many terrorist attacks en theirsome against US targets. They have, after all, their own objections to US policies. They have less reason, however, to attack French largcis: consequently,seerat relatively more likely Ihat the attacks against French targets have been at the behen of Iran. The nature of ihc demands made by the oucnsiblc spokesman fee Islamic Jihad support thb

tumimr '

Dmull* hiti wM Bs iht ant* routet tilluni*1 hauca iSiiSHIaiinnWdH

out of rclltlaiiiatek


l 6


-Southern Opci jlional" wine of I'P-

it ^icnvpTStiniTutrSderinBhe Pdriufiucsc police enrder to benefitlause of theounter terror ism law tt.it rwide. for lletucr sentences for those who cooperate with the authorities. Otherhc cmup wtio have rcccntb returnee) from abroad arc trying .oihcm


Can ad ii


ARA Member*arch In Ottawa, ihrce members of ihe Armenian Rciotuiionar)ike Turkish Em Mlurd in the process. Turin*Kiiea escaped byoct of an upperwiaeow. ban heinjured by the fall. After (oar boon, the icnornti -irtove been charted with Brii.degree mordcr. The ARAassociated with ihe Armenian Revoloiioiury Federation, other-lie knownDaihnak Party, the simcation thai spawned iheJflP"

2 8


DeuroyiMaxtor In Southern tubman

loiion si ihe main mosque Inilledet .out iindo group claimed credit fur ihc explosion. uMeh uccurrtd only houii after Uracil Hoops had searched the vlll.ipvjnoWlua^iiiaritd^Amont ihc dead were mo prorAincm Amal leadeniliem because he had threatened ihai Anial would launch crosi-boidcr aiiackitthcrn Isruel.ajffjK.



Own Medicine

arch in touih Beirut, sn rtiimaud >'0 Lilagumi of ctpioaitc* toae-rikilar detonated near ihc home af Hlibatlsti searhml leader Muhamaasdadlatlsh. killiagnd woatWing marc. ll wai ihc mi lethal attack ia Lebanon stncc tbc Islamic Jihsd bimbiagt of the US Marine aad Fitnckcompoundi in OctoberJ fadlansb. who was not iegutcd. Imnndbtelj blamed tbc United Siaics sad Israel andrevenge, aaaaat-

Shla Atlacki Mining CIomi to Urarl

Onuicide car bomb attack on an Israeli military convo> juit nonhof the Israeli border killedoldtcrt andhe Lebanese Naitonul Rciiiiancc From. "Islamicitherto unknowntljir.ic Jihad at) clatxrd entail for ihc bloodv atuck. The anonymous caller rcpreseaiiflg lUamK Jihaa aliened ihai the target of ihe opcratioa had been lae Itracli ullage of Meiulla. bit awmgiikii mistake- ike drnrf had attacked Ibe rasvoy ionead. TIM aoaU (urn been ihc frit ataior Shia attael inude Israel aad would bateagaificsnl cscala'.lon of the gacrilla warrtt bracl Threat* of more sach luicidc attacks acre telephoned the nctt da) icWeMtrn news agency inaja^





of Guadeloupe General Council Escape* Assassination

inale rifle >ttoi tircdjbmugh Ihc window ofhcractciatvmissed Presidcni Luccitc Michaux*Chcvry. Frcnrtarc believed responsible for the attempted assignation, whichhave been carefully planned aad probablydesignednfluenceOA.arch. Previous atiadts by *eparait*t* in Guadeloupe haveat proper I? rather lhan per teas, so thi* shootingcriou*i

eolation, Baft

CIMurders Army Spokesman

arch In San Salvador, chief Satiadoran Army. Col. Ricnfdo Cieafuego* watfaaM to death as he plated tennisxal spom Club. The Clara Cliiabeth Ramirez Front (CERFl. on urban terrorist tpliutcf of lbs Force* of Papular Liberation, (fainted responsibility. As director of the Armed Force* Pres. Committee. Cicnfuego. had been inurumcntal in sircncthcning tltc public aihiirs and media cfforis of the Salvadoran Army. He met regularly with foreign

newsmen, who regarded him as among ihc very few credible governmcni (oarcc* of info-ma lion. JfBSBSSfar--

Breaks Into Police Arieoal

On IJ March.embers of therganization Alf.ro Vive,police uniforms eapiurod0 weapons and several thousandammunition in an early morning raid on ihc Quito police ancnaLby the group had conilslcdof bank tobbcrie and ratherat armed propaganda.e. Ii of this raid, ihe group hasit* operational capabilities, suggeulnc It intend* to escalate

aatigovcramcnt campaign,

Targets US Soldiers

arch in Tegucigalpa, five persons were injurcstjMncluding one US icrvieemsn.omb that caplodcdbeoiheeiueTreoueoied by US servicemen. The Moratanut From for the Liberation of Honduras (FMLHl claimed credit. According io in communique, it sought "to kill military personnel participating in the Big Pine III militaryhe FMLH. foundedomrauruit splinter partyad not been active for several year* nnd was thought to be defunct.


Whnl Ncxi From

(he Eutolcfroritts?^-

significant icrroriun Ins emanated from the Eurotcr roriii aliiebruary, ihc On; ihc Red Atniy Faction iRAl'J murderedi Zirnmrrrainn and the RAF prisoners coded their hunger strike. This hallclh-ii) -s. not farced upon Ihcnstead. Ihc; stopped MX paused) of their can accord. None orprincipal perpetrators hai been apprcbcisdcd. aado evidence lhai ihey hare given up icrroriini. Thus they retain Ihe capability to rciumc ibeir ottjcii ii will, andipvct thenio so waoci di

Hardly anyone would disagree with this acncnl asicismcnt: on ihe oiher hind, iiloo vagueelp those who are trying to defend themselves against ihc coming attacks. Since for well-known rcnsois we arc rarely able to provide precise warning information, we usually compensate by miking sure we do not underestimate ioi undeisiaiei the threat. Customarily, then, we tend io dwell anon ihc eapabiliiiei and options.of the letorisis. along wlih the multiplicity of possible targets and ihe impossibility, of defending them all. rather than. say. upon the reasons way the lerrorisis might let uphile. We are trying tercreak thai pancrn b> offering tome admittedly speculative thoughts on tbc conduct and possible motivations of Ihose who perhaps loo broadly, bant been labeled the Euroterrormi. We hope thereby totile light oney are likely so doand when fJj*gV

First we should make clear whom we arei< parttclpaiion in ihe turotrrtorisl alliance has hardly been uniserssl. Leflwlng Well Europeanhich we had feared might JoinRed Brigades. Portugal'* Populai forces ofprilapparently mil done to: Indeed. FP-IS went outTif its way lo eniphaslie its nonpariictpalioQ. Only the RAF.ction Dlrccie. and Belgium's Commur.il Combatant Celts iCCQ appear to be



i Anion DircclcCCC are brlietcd us have stillThus thellianceof no more ihiraaaaaBBaV aciiseWest Germans*Tj

What Mot nates Use Lvrdf rre-risis? Onelo slew the rcecai Eurotcrruriu tmisu.gr iihc lalcsl mioafcsiaiion of ibetrrroritm ikat bis been presaknt in Western Europe sinee ihcG% In this light, ihe limited international .'oopirjion lodaie would merely repreieniiuiionar> convergence of taciics .imong grempi with similar idcologi and goal* raihcr than any dramatic new dcturiurc. Bui there arc considerable grounds for bclsevina it Is more than y 2*

In receni years. West European terroristihc HAI hare been frustrated bycapabilities of ihc eoun ten errorwho have orrestrd moil of theirtheir tactical opi>oni.nd cenunctcdcnvironmeai. Some of iikimprisoned RAF urretut teem lo suggestbelieved ii was "ana* orforat*^lhai ibisin the aeeaunaabti favorable ainsqaphereaftermath of ike faaksrc of ibe vvrnmovemeni to prevent ikf deploy uselasl good chance so generate the massivesupport they sought

On ihc other hand, ihc current crop of rtu'opcan

terrorists mays eoncirned with making progress


3 3

oal. Midijjenciaiirtfl anti-NATO Millimiriit amongrojicin populace, ilun willt Ihc tcrroiiii came. Tor litem, VHaf if lugcciicd.

terrorism may have become an end in ittelf. with the terrorist set It* own reward. The pt)-cha!asic.il bene lit* of participating in terrorist attacks may have become the prime motivation for conducting them. Like any organi/aiicn, moreorer, terrorist groups become dedicated to their own carvrval: rarely do they go out of business volunioi ily. Instead, they continue to act in order to justify their coniiaucd existence, lo otherhe member* of terrorist groups tend to becomehoic ideological justifications for their actions ore little more than rationalization* of what ihey just likemust continue to do or disband. Mp>

A FmnieijltcrnaiuelyagSgMpiusout. terror Iill arc especially vulnerable lothey often mike the mistake ofown propaganda. They tend toown strength, their popular support,of the enemy, and Ibe imminence ofThough rational, they liveantasywhich their armlet and brigades wage aon behalf of legions oflike their military units, arc largelythough their efloris be unavailing orthe. may contlnte to fight,is worse than admitting

This would "plain the almost astonishing persistence of members of ihcesser extent, of Action Dircctc) in the face of overwhelming evidence thai ihcir tactics have net advanced ihcm at all toward their staled goals. Indeed, bi arousing ievulsion among ifcc'r own countrymen and stimulating their own government* to Improve their countcrtcrroriim capabilities and cooperation wlih other governments, they hare actually been losing ground. Rejected by their own countrymen, these terrorists teem more and more to be acting on behalf of ao idealized, imaginary clots of International victimsmperialism" Positive reinforcement comes noi from the people on whose behalf the terrorist action* ire ostensibly undeitakcn but from

feeling* of solidarity with (miof solidarity front)other tcnorist groups which. similarly oirsmtcd from ilicirsocieties, arc acting ua behalf of the utnic mythical interimony .esjsjsa-

Why the Lull In AciMty*

In contrast to the intense Ii urate rroriu BHiriiy in December and January, relative calm hat prevailed since then. Nevertheless, even though ao major incidcnls linked to ihc Lorol error ill alliance have occurred 'it nearly two months, potential rictimt have remained on icnterbook* awaiting ihc nest blow. Concern ha* been heightened by information contained in RAF documentseonliscaied last lutuiitcr indicating thai the terrorist campaign would culminate in one or more "iptetaculsr" action'. Judging thai none of the actions iliat have taken ptuce to far was especially spectacular, and remembering that ihc RAFeputation for following through with it* plant even aflcr the} have been discovered by authorities, many analysts continueajor event at anyleast they do not believe any potential targeit should ycl tchx.-stswja.


TheUutit .live al uimiac


live bciti fiuKr in KAt

On the other hand, each day that paiscsajor Euroicrrorist event mates lliit thesisittle lest Imposing, And there are cownierargumeats. For instance,he year ihc RAF wet mosi active and dctiructlie. several monih* passed between some majoror another thing. RAF literature shows the group it extremely conscious of ihc theatrical impact of it* activities, and ii must recognize thai the motl appropriate timeulminating event hat long sinceoreorer. ihc RAF makes many- more plans than It ever carries out, and it doet modify its plant If eircumitaneti

ther'mti ana Ike RAF ttnagei utile indrd.


ha. anon* otkel ileal*.

GeinuniJcreufocr Indun oan igMa)

7 3 4

The Surprising Absence of the Red Brigades


Given ihc mo'C reatont why assoriation *ith ihe Euroterrorlst alliance might be attractive to Writ turopeen leftMug terrorist groins. It seems oddfew actually hate beenonly ihr RAF, Anion Dlreete. aad Ihe CCC. The attacks agoiiittTO-eountry targets la Portugal and Crreee that took place during ike pan few mautht do not appear lo haw been pari of at Internationally coordinatedTO terrorist strategy. Indeed.nnounced explicitly that Its activities la Portugal were completely Independent. Although the obscure group thai claimed credit for the ai templed bombing of the West German Embassy la Athens mid the operation had been undertaken In solidarity with ibe. RAF.eete, and CCC. there It no estdence of Instigation by any of those croups. Similarly. we hate seen no indications of any involvement on the pan of the leftwing terrorists in Italy. Spain, or Northern Irelandmffb Jt

Perhaps the most surprising absence from the turoterrorlst alliance has been thai of the Red Brigades of Italy. The Red Brigades has suffered severe setbacks In recent years, but the remnants of tke group undoubtedly retain the operailonal capability lo carry oui tcrrortsi attacks. There arelinks between Italian terrorists and members of Action Direete. It was Italian terrorists' who first used the name Communist Combatant Organisation. Among the cornerstones of Red Brigades ideology havt been opposition to NATO and support for International efforts to combat Westernor many reasons, tken. the Red Brigades would appear to have been natural participants In any Euroterrorlst alliance. Waal his been holding ihe Italians back? 0

Several plausiblesince last summer the Redeen all but Immobilised by Ideological disagreements, perhaps between the surviving members of the "old guard'ew generation of terrorists. Another reason why at least some Red Brigades members may hare declinedarticipate

in tkefmnt anti-NATO terra/Ht campaign Ii ihaiild have Jeopardised their continued sanctuary insanctuary that was already threatened byGoverament's lacreasjnglv/lcxible attitude toward extraditing accuseddemonstrated by its extradition of Spanish Basque terrorists lull.

Red Brigadct members remalnleg In Italy maj- ItfiV been constrained by similarly practical coiillderallons. Several hundred luspecled terrorists. Including some Red Brigades members.eligible for release by November, when the preventive detention reform law is set to lake effecl. Tcrrortsi activities within Italy could lead the Italian Government to take legal steps to further detain them end to round up and reincarcerate ihe many accused terrorists who hate been gramed only provisional liberty. tsW

Harda to evaluate ere possible tuiergroup conflicts rooted In personal. Ideological, national, or cultural


of other Wesi European Icflwtng extremist groups. Including the Red Brigades, regard the RAF at arrogant and etltltl. It may be lhai the central role played by the RAF has driven away mare than one prospective participanturoterrorlst alliance, iagfj

Finally, the Red Brigades is known to be trying hard to establish and maintain strict compart mentation of Its operational components as parteneral effort lo improve Its organisational end personnel security practices. Fear of penetration or exposure may be causing the Red Brigades to avoid or at least limit contacts between Its operatives and those of Other, especially foreign

7 3 5

.Mitre lhan due Objtiihr. There lire somewhyn rot erroray temporarilywjili what they hue accomplishedor euimple. there it growing evidence that the ftAction Directe have viewed the establishmentterrorist cooperationaali nicjns of juiiifyiag their tactics andcorrectness of their strategy rather than simply*meant of improving their capabilities ar sinkingpcrceivvd enemies. One of the main objectivesterrorists may simply have been toconcern atd gain

This ass demonstrated, for example, in thethe RAF prisoners thai appearedarchleft wine West German newspaperwhich they explained why they had endedstrike. The reason was. the unidentifiedthat "the objective of five years ofnamely) Ihc breakthroughestof revolutionaryeap" as to overtake theof Ihe RAF prisoners. Proudly taking noteoverture*tter NATO countries followingvon Dyd operation"<the murderAudran In Pari*', as well as ofby US Sccrctaiy of Slate ScfauHa.concluded thai the Euro* error illhad such an enormous impact thai theGovernment would gladly sec themyielding to their demands (such as'. location i. Thus, they explained, ibey hadhunger strike in order to deny their captors

Of coarse this was typical RAF after'ihe-fact rj lionsallon. The prisoners probably never Intended io fast io the death nor expected toocal Ion. Rut the statement acrenhelessindset concerned at least as mseh with achievingiih harmlng_encmles. In other words, in waging the

laiaansl carasiuign tin- rai land presumably lisihc ccc and Actiua Ditestci hadcam rational kind psjehoJogkalwell j. ideulog^.Regrettable us ibe tUniri. and damage eihcimnaign hate been. Ikeso NATO has betafacttaai esca tliose given to Klf-dtfuuonit At the samcliatK. thougha signal triumph with regard loand psvelsologiiul needs.gained Ihe attention ibey sougln; theystit-ccvdcd beyond their cxpcctaiktnt. If to.take tome time io reevaluate1 their positionhow- to proceed. Tim would explain theIn their terrorist ftStMll

onlfnulngsummary, although all observersstrike agaia. notIndicate when ar wherecome. In any cwaa. it is kkcly to be designedrather than avoid eaaaallies. Amongoperatkr.i. aldsuplag atieaipttlikciy lhan skyjacking) oroperslioni. The advantage Letho can pack the lactic, time, place,Increased protection of tome NATOkey personnel may already hate deterredlacks, bui the terrorists cm always ihifi to leu targets,-'

Obviously, the man likely targets are tensor NATO military officers and major NATO facilities 'especially headquarters contplesatL along wiih senior diplomats and government afKciali. especially those associated with miliury affairs In addition, even thcagh the terrorists may not feel under any pressure to actumber of event* coming up in the next several moot hi offer ihem potential export unities lo strikepcctacula'tkesc event* arc the NATO Naclcar Planniaa Mealing to be held ia Luxembourg ia Late March. PresidentisitEurope In osnjunctiea wiih thenniversaryarly May. Ihe Bonn tconomlc Summit onay. and ihe Parla Air Show, which will begin

* ? 3 6

in laic May and continue Into June. Against [ktft ihcorctiial opportunities we can array (he known! lively iitcli nations of ihc terror istt:

A mapi RAT operation seems most probable, .ilihemah ihc attack would noiate place in Weil Germany. The RAF cnrrcmly ha> ihceapons.ad support needed looatu nations, major bcanhingi. and kidnaamn. ai well as letter act* of violcnec. la iheargcting hat beenandmagma use. and casing ha* been thorough and The group proBably will avoid the moil obvious largeti because ihey are io well protected and mike initcadeu protected Individual or ii -igninC9iKClO(hc RAF hit been undeirallmiied.

CCC seems lu be

primarily following ihVleacIof th* RAF ia it* operation* in Belgium.The communique issued by the CCC after iu last operation promised thatauie the group would resume In attacks and implied thai it* next operation would be an assassination attemptenior NATO or US official

s possible that ihe nest iHUik will bejoint operation Involving sonic comun ofor perhaps alt three uioups Ii is evident that ihc terrorists hare been paying tlose aiieniiun so iheir own press coverage and thai ihc> regard ihcir alliance with eseiy tw as much seriousncis usdo. Their Allureleast ihoac iasolving the RAF. probably wilt be Micndcd tosiiiiiihihe growing cloiencss and sircogih of the alliance. If othei groer* can be induced to join, ihe price ofalicrna lively, ibe cclcbealion--mightajor terrorist attack- As has been (he ease so far.ttacks arc likely to be Oeilgned minslj in garner publicity aad stimulate reaction b> senior goscrtjnem officials rather than io harm NATO capabilities per tc or (though (hit mill be (he osienilble inirlleaiionlenerate anti-NATO Kotinscnt among ihc reoplc.as*pV-*

Finally. Ii should be noted that the urrorisis mas try tohort timeail-wer at Ihe event they are proicstlng or ciploltlng, In order to avoid the massive security precautions Ihai will be token ai tho event

is citremcly diflieull to foiecatt whatwill. line* lit last operation waiofAudran assassination wispremeditated murder.imilar operationfor (he near future, iheey member of Ihe

Government or of ihc defense scetoi otjjf

homeini:usayn Fudliilluh

Husaynhia fundamcntaliit cleric Cased in south Beirut, hasoy leader Of the extremist Hizballah movement and Ii attracting the support of increasing numbers af Lebanese Shias. He visits Iran frequently, maintains tics with high-level members of the Khomeini regime, and advocates the establishment of an Iranian-style state in Lebanon. Heharismatic orator ttho could eventually emerge as the dominant Shia figure in Beirut aed attempt toevolt among discontentedue.

FadtallahboraS In the Shia holy city of Aft Najaf in Iraq, but hit family cameillage in southern Lebanon. He studied Islamic jurisprudence6 in An Najaf. where he may have come under the influence ef Khomeini, who arrived ibetee then returned to Lebanon and begin toollowing among LcbanctC Shiaseturn to Islamic values.

Fadlallah's goal is tohia revolutionthat would overthrow theand replace it with arepublic. He rejects the National PactJ. upon which the Lebanese political systembecause it favors Christians overargues that Shias nowajorityand shouldovernment bated

Increasing Influence

Fadtallah has become one of the most prominent figures in the pro-Iranian Shia fundamentalist movetscnt in Lebanon. He maintains cstensur

* The NitLuulmi'ir.iinmeroin

tush of iHe rofwtaiien af isrh nligbMi acet. aeeorgbe to the utiau* couus rthrbuani and SuanlS4 tiv aesitla-J. Dcestgnpklc thangca note then. Mwttt.


Fadtallah operates primarily through the Mutlim Studentsadical organization that he commands in thehia southern suburbs of Beirut. Its members proselytize and propagandize in the name of Islamic fundamental nm The union, which unn. nbothilitia andolitical and religious group, almost certainly servesront organization for the covert Lebanese branch the militant Dawa Par

Fadtallah hat enlarged his base of support through social welfare programs aimed at the Shia mattes. The Muslim Students Union, for example, provides financial attHtsncc. *chooli-ig. and other eha

Terrorismolitical Weapon Fadlallah plays an important role in the Hizballah terroristisampaign of violence agaiattuS, West European, and Israeli personnel and facilities in Lebanon. Betides servingpiritual leader, be coordinates radical Shia activities in Beirut/

Fadlaflnharticularly dangerous figureopciaict iucecisfull>undamentalistand niitU hit role as coordinator ofpronounce melearly have the capabilitysoung Shiaitotcocc aod other forimpolitical5

An analog) between FocUaMah and Khomeini may be premature, but there arc important similar.ties.ole in the Lebanese Huballah movement Is almost ai central a* that of Khomeini in the Iranian revolution. If the Shia radicals continueain ttrenath. Fadlallah may lead the dominant malum political movement inrr-r- '

hat been spur red to anion in recent years mainlyinflammatory rhetoric and aeiuKniadlaUah* po,-iulaiilj andcertainty will grow in the next few yearsat mom LebanescShi.it remain bitterAat it lied with tlicir political and.*>

Fadlallah uset terrorismolitical weapon in his ouett for an Islamic state. He hatoreign interests be caste kit ideology postulates that the first step in the Shia revolution mutt be the removal of Western influence from Lebanon. It la likely that FaGlallah and his adherents will eventually expand ibeirf violence to include LebaneseCHiis'.iar.-enVials ar.d

The continued irowth of the radical Shia movement in Lebanon depend!arge extent on the charismatic leadership of clerics such ai Fadlallah. The traditionally passive Lebanese Shia population

Tcfrorlciii in Aslu:

I'attorns and I'rotpcci* tm>

Jnroiaul yeun. Am silt* onlymull portion ol iho terrorist Incidenti thai nude eadlines ie> ihe mil ul ihc wuihl.ew cvcefmiani. ic'torum in Aiu coniiat ed lo rvjciiecd i y iniurgcfit* or eifine ttom.fi with gr.ev i, - ihcit vailnd facilitiesyhe regionnd IWJ kiokt no

Si. Lanka

The blcodictt. if not the bestcampaign ol terrorism In Atia last yea Iconducted by ihc tCfU'Aiiil Tnmil insurgents against iho Sinhalese ccnttai government in Sii Lanka. Atjti doting inhai left hundred* ol Tamil, dead at Hte hands ef the ma.oriiy Sinhalese, the several guerrilla group*eparate Tamil state mined increasing!)'io ncighboriag InCid for sale India."ilk itslarge Tamil ccawlaiea in ibe tooth, had longll ned viih ihe pkffM of Ihc Sfi Lankannd in Wll Ngai Delhi encoa'Mird considerable domestic pressure io Intervene la the internecine bloodletting. Accordingly,4 India movedolicy of acttuicscing In (tula and local support for the rebels to providing rational.kvdMisurtce to.


Per hi pi tha Sri Lankan Tamil groups were emboldened by thi* increased turtpori. for4 lhey aitacked US target* for the Aral tunc*

In Mastheneial.itorar) liberatioe FrontHLf IdS AIDand his -ife. Thai svere j releasedCayi hsicr. after Indian

Prime Minister Indira Gandhiadio appro] on the eveisit by US Vice Praildent Bush.

In June unidentified Tamils >eiumb in ihc doivntoivn Colombooured hie Ismeli In te re its Section ol ihe US Lntb.nsy.'Later lhal month, other Tamils aiicmptcd tomi) guard toackage, uspn.ted9 bomb, taicihe US AIDoflkesb 3

aguti aatdeniittcd Tamils aiiosirnd ioomb aboard an Air La*.La flighi bouad from Madn> to Colombo The suiicasc containing the bomb exp'oded ip the Madras airport, however, killingeople, mostly Srihi* uat the bloodiest terrorist attack ever to occur at an an pom. the death toll exceeding even ihat of ihc Japanese Red Army assault at Lod Airport la Tel Aviv? _

4 cauiing large Humbert of casualtiesi" 'ii on both sides of the separatisttimethe secoed half ol the kilted doicis of soldiers or cmiisnseach of ohch generatedthan the am bash inhit/ftthe communal rioting. Althoughpopulanon dat not take to ihe meetsat itear earlier, the Army engageduncontrollable rcio ha lion againstin arcat where guerrillas had

kilhng at many a*oerson*ime jap*

ii hud become apparent that the detadei-

long insurgency hart reached aplateau of violence Guerrillas kilted sold.cr! and policemen alrro-ii dail*ry -n. prodaced nt- rCoons ol massacres by national security forces la trtatiaiioa The governmentbandoned lis* searcholiticallate in4 While no specific threat* lo US facilities and personnel had




flic possibility ofand ihc fact that Tamils4 combine to make Srione of tbc mote dangerous spot*in


The only other continuing serious terror ill threat to Americans in Asia came in Japan at the hands of ihe leftist terrorist group Chukaku-ha (Nucleus factlthough the group has been In existencenly la the last couple of years has Ii become moretirrji io ITS interests _


claimsare thousands of supporiess. It has long opposed the coastruction (and now the cxpattsion) of Natlu Airport, the "militarlraiioo"of Japan, the US-Japanese sceurity relationship, the pretence of US bases, and visits by US nuciesr-posvered ships. It used to rctttlci itKlf to minor fircbombingt of empty oiltccs.but it became more dangerous in

Although Chukaku-ha continued to target only ^ undefended facillilct, Ii began io rely less on crude Incendiaries and moreairly sophisticated Improviseduck-mounted flamethrower. This uniquely Japanese weapon system figuredalf doien Chukaku-ha attacksnd although It only funmioned as planned in about half thets few successes were spectacular. Oneptember, for coamplc.evice caused more than S2 millicn in damage to the Tokyo hendouarrers of the ruling Liberal Democratic yai'-^MMBlkXtmauu^mmuul ukaku-ha is able to use it 'capture of any of its members. Alihough lb* truck devicenot usedS raetthy last year, in June Chukaku-ha did cause minor damage to two US military communications aites srilb moreebombs..gjJpWi 'j,3

On New Year's5 the group claimed credit for an improvised eltaek against the US Consulate General in Kobe using improvised rockets, at least one of which was of an antipersonnel

group plans to use improved rockets5 and to begin targeting personnel rather thin just facilities. US targets probably will remain high on the group's I'i'fjp.


Byikh esirtmiiis led by theJarnall Singh tlhingranoalc had keptstate of Punjab in turmoil for twoHinuu> and more modcrMCand his foUoweri soughi tobetween mainsiream Sikhs andgovcrnnjcni over Sikh concerns forjhcfa* their special status in Indian loctciy. Bycampaign had isolated andntodcratei io ihe exuni lhai they hoped tosupport within early June.

une ihc central government ordered Army iroepi to assault Bhindranwale's headquarters in the Golden Tcnipte sanctuary in Amrilaar. Sikhdom's most sacred stir Inc. Th* raid, during which Bhindranwale and moref his followers were killed. effectively ended organlted Sikh terrorism, but leftmoldering residue of communal btltcincis es-er the violation of tho temple. Nevertheless, the only major acts of Sikh terrorism during the summer were twoT.

But the alienation ofmainstream Sikhs after ihc temple assault led to Asis's most spectacular act of terrorism Inassassination of Prime Minister Indira Gandhi by two of her Sikh bodyguards onctober. With that act (and after the subsequent killing ofikhs In retaliatory rioting) Sikh coirage seemed to have expended itself, at least for ihe moment, with most Sikhs waiting to ice how ihe new government of Rajiv Gandhi would attempt reconciliation. tflPJ*"


The Only noteworthy terrorist threat in Pakistaname fromi governjo/nt group Al-Zulflkar. Compared to Ihes. Al-Zulfikar was not very active within Pakistanndeed, the most significant Al-Zalltkst Incident occurred in Europe. In the sprint, aboutll-trained members of the group plotted to lake hostage large numbers of diplomats, ftrst in Athens, then in Rome, and finally in Vienna, They hnd hoped io trade ihes* hostage* for morerisoners in Pakistani jails, but when




7 4 2


fiouli; diu-iiipicu an vpccaiiun in Vienna. iliey botched il andarretted. The captured icrroricitemarkable lack or sophisticationroup attempting an attack so far afield Nevertheless, even this inept attempt almost succeeded, and Al-Zulfikar may try again to iciac tmpoitant hostages. Thus the group continues tocdiam-ktel threat to US interestsjpp

Insurgents In ihc Philippines continuedn terrorism onlyimited, sporadicNewrmy (NPAlcfof the Philippines regularly attackedpolice forces and onioned fundsbut nvoided attacks on US andfacilities. The NPA was suspected

high-lose! miliiary assassination, isso atlcrnpicd bombings of tbe Japanese Embassy, and several hold fires. No evidence bad surfaced by yea rend, however, to suggest thai ihe NPA had usedrban icrrorist infrastructure in any of these attacks or bad abandoned lis policy of restraint toward US targets.

The insurgency of Ihe Moro National Liberation Front iMNLFl heated up slightlyui tic actions impinged only slightly on US interests. Most of ihe MNLF attacks were conducted against the traditional police, army, and local political targets. In December, however, units of ihc MNLF In Jolo kidnaped twoAmericanestthey "ere itlD being held ai the end of the year. The MNLF hat periodically kidnaped foreigners and seizes American eliliens every few years. It has not harmed its foreign hostages, however, and ihey are generally released after the MNLF achieves ill raniom or propaganda goals. aj*pi-

In4 Jakartaudden onslaught of urbna violence and apparent lerroriim. After communal riots In September left as manyead, in early October bombs went off In several ethnic-Chinese'owned banks and businesses, killing two porions. In (he weeks thaiash nf files, bomb threats, and accidents occurr

li now appears ihai ihr Islamic Solidarity consistsumber ol small conscriailtc Muslim groups ratheringlem frets of teieralgroupi have been Implkaicd in some of ihe incident* last fall. Others oic suspected In the earlyombing of the major Buddhin shrine utmoti prominent nationalin ihc burning of ihc palace of the Sultan of Solo. These Mutlim fundamenialists arc reportedly uptet with ih* central government's secular policies and may insligilc further violence against the and other religious!

New Caledonia

So far. very link of ihe separatist agitation,nnd sporadic mayhem in thisihai began4 and continued Intobe called terrorism. Some terrorist'typelo the Melanesian separatist movementplace in France, buI violence in thehai generally consisted of spontaneous riotsacts of economic sabotage. However, oflerof the military chief of the separatistSocialist Liberation Front (FLNKSllast January, the positions of the FLNKSEuropean scitleri have further polartrcd.is likely this year, and FLNKSturn io acts of terrorism as its^



? 4 3

Unclaimeden Is

f b3

ommonly say. loron'm us* >Sok*ec io createchokiglTccu ihai will translate into political resulti. iHen it mould teemfleciisc an act ol terrorism and the itaeaalty of itt perpetrators muttbout by aaaudicccc beyond Ihc actual vklim of the liolcncr. Otherwise, ilhi appear, there will be no psychological effects or political results to speak of. Claiming credit lor an aci of terrorism it the principal method byicrrorSt* attempt lo ipcciftcalty influence tbc behavior of their target audience. It may therefore teem paradoxical that nearly half of all terrorist incidentf arc unclaimed and thai ihe responsibility forcainh of ihem cannoi be ictiably aitribuiod to anyone.

Most of ihe unclaimed incsdenl* arcle-e! actiona. such at taiiy-morel nf bombings not intended to cause casualties. More pauling ii ihc major terrorist event thai is net claimed Except perhapshes aa act is commmed merely to sustain the group, tackank robbery, one would think that terrorists would always want ihe world to know, when ihe) have comerrorist act, that It was they who com mined it (It it, incidentally, in (hiirespeci Ihai Ihey differ meet clearly from common criminals who are only interested In loot, and who therefore do not want to be identified at the parpciiators after they have committed ano the extent ihst the terrorists successfully hide Ihcir identity, Ihey would appear to have conducied an action ihat has served ao paritosc. bat an advertising campaign thai docs not name tbc product.

Oa the other baad. the aaaaymlty of theuy enhance the eonfluion and tension surrounding an attack. The Intense desire to" andauses specula lion to abound and theories of

attribution to be baited back and fonh. In the absence oTa credible genuine claim, spurious claims may surface to mislead the authorities und confuse the' public, For weeks after un anonymous mlack, ihe fearepeal performance may remain. The mysterious perpetrators may appear more sophist icaied and ellcctivc than any who are known. Or ih* most feared or infamous of probable culprits may be blamed. This public response was in evidence in Palis during the summerecauseigned threat by ihc notorious terrorist Catlot. several major unclaimed attacks that occurred during die following niunihs were attributed to him although supporting evidencelacking

Upon closer examination, it can be seen that unclaimed terrorist actions may nevertheless serve several useful purposes for the perpetrators. Terrorist! might b* fully satisfied if.ombing, the population merely speculates about who his responsible while worrying about the likelihood of additional bombings. Since common criminals arc noi likely to be responsible, as bombing provides them with no gain and only prcscnit expense and risk, oa unclaimed bombing will rightly be interpreted by the population as being of icrrorltt origin. If ihe goal of ihc terroristt is merely to Jnsiill concern in the public and demonstrate that Ih* governmcni cannoi step ihem. they can do this anonymously.

Unclaimed terrorist act* may be even more cfTcciivc In otherf. forudge who has sentenced tcrrorifr) to long priion lerau *hould be attacked, most people would conclude thai the crime was perpetratedcrrorisi groupeven if ihctc was no (race of evidence. The direct fear created in the legal community by such an event might well be heightened by the anonymity of the attackers. (One must watch out not suit for the offended terrorist* but for all terrorisis as well as their associate* and supporters-!


1 4 5


Bomb dismantled near IUM mosaue In Tripoli. It was ihc thirdhardline Sunni leader Shaykh Shaban's. Itlantic Unification Movement in The IUM blamed the Christian Pttalangitt


no casualties. No one claimed rctponiibilit


Bomb explodes at home of former Mayor of La Paz and current campaign manager of former President Itwgo Better. No our was hurt in the bombing, which wat probably related to the Bolivian national election* scheduled forune.


2 March

Bomb explodes outside Miaistryneai Departments and Territories demeting nearby -chiclet but earning no Injuriet. No group claimed credit.rp(

2 Mart*

Creeee: Attempt to firebomb H'est Grrma* tmtastyroup calling iiself lie Revolutionary Group of International Solidarity Christosheard of inresponsibility for ibe incident. Italian '< was done in "unity'* with ihc Red Army Faction of Wol Gernury


J Mare*

total government officials attacked by NPA. The Mayor of Bulan. Co marines Sur. wat ihot ami woundedoadside attack by foot unidentified men. The chief of police of Bullion wat ihot dead by unidcniillcd aiiackeri while he was at tending Man with his wife and children, In boih Cases, the New People'*

Sudani Ugandan students escape rebel captitity. Pour of five Ugandansthe Sudan People') Liberation Army during an attacktcimerescaped and found their nay to Sudanese Army forces. The3

reportedly died in captivity.


AhZulfikar skyjacking accomplice hanged In Karachi- The man had bought the tickets for tbc group thatakistani airiincr Kabul in t "7


Australia; Weapon deitinedfar New Caledonian entiseparattsts intercepted, la Yatala. in eastern Australia, four Frenchmen were arrested when weapons and anmuniiion were found concealed on board their yacht. The maicricl. which was probably Intended for aniiseraratist Ficnch residents of New Caledonia, consisted ofump ihotguns,emiautomatic shotguns, four aiiaulttimunition magazines,0 roundi of ammunition.f'LfJlgii



l-Zulfikar members each sentenced taears In ptisan. They had been cotiricied of murders, hijackings, and other terroriit endeavors. Anotherl-Zulfikar members, including leaders Murtaia and Shahnawar Bhuiio. were eonvieted in abicniia.bat it is not cleat what their semcneet


Presidenthief technical ad'lser on terrorismProutesu. founder of the Intervention Group oT the National Police, was named CcetiAl.tioncr of the


France: Bombing ia Bordeaux In support of New Caledonianote left at the scene condemned the "Bordeaux boutgcolswhich is an accomplice of ihe assassination ofMacSoro.the milium Kanak leader who was killed in New Caledonia

Spain: ETA car bomb kills Basaue police chief near Viltoria, Tho group claimed (hat Lt. Col. Carlos Dial Arcocrya was killed as "part offfensive againii Spain's occupation irmy.


7 4 8

BSix members efZyrlmis Group"comIcted0 of establishing o

terrorist group acquitted in retrial The conviction was overturned because8 law on which Itwas changed4 legislation passed b> the Socialist government .i


Caledonia: French gendarme killed utile dismantling roadblock. The victim wat it ruck downachete blow in the back. Mem belt of the tcnuratlsi Kdiiuk Socialist National Ubcralion.rjent iFLNKSiarc*

rruti lawn of Malnll In Mindanao,ot ice mop. The guerrillas wounded another five soldier* and burned ythe ten.


Trial of five* hijacked Indian airlinerI begiai. No trial hat yet been scheduled for another group of Sikh) whoimilar erafi last July. I

Two Improvised time bombi found ia Biarritz- One had been placed nearcourse, the otherestaurant. Neither exploded, owing to defective timer*. group claimed credit, but French BasqaereP


One firebomb and two exploit* devices detonate the nightFive person* were injured. Ficnch Caribbean separatist* probably


Burmese drug trafficked capture four border policemen. Elements of the Shan United Army (SUA) intercepted them while they searched for missing

confirms that their mission was not drug tela

them if the Thai

7 March

Sendero Luminoso guerrillas kill Lima police deteeti-e.imwith autumuiie weapons firepeeding car. The police said ibis was ^first such blatant, daylight SL attack in the capital.

Bomb explodes on Israeli out In Beho.auPriorhe ciplosion. thehaduspicious-looking package on the but and ordered all ofto disembark; consequcaily. no one was hurt, and* onlyo group ha* claimed

Portugal:argets foreign businesses in bombing spree. In Lilbon.extensive damage to Ihe bank Credit Franco-Poriugais. th*firm Ncwstcad Porter,ranch of Ihe French bankIn Evora. bombs damaged ibe home of ihe managerlueand the homes of two executive* of tbc telexest German company Sierrcii FP-I5 claimed


IIBerlin: RAF sympathizers bomt storage lot affirm ihai built the new

maximum security section of Maaeli prison. Several pieces of heavy commie1 equipment were severely damaged by the explosions ol three improvisedao other dcffi (ailed to explode. This was ihe second recent attack on target* related io ihe nea icchon. whleh housei three female heO Army (action mcmocti. Last month someone iried toar owned by (be architect of ihcreviously unknown group Culled the "Struggling Djslexics" elainved credii for the bombingsetter, declaring solidarity with the svomcn who had pavsicif-jJed in the RAF hunger mike, fgfe


Sblt religious leader Shamiaddin escapes assassination aiiempi by unidentified tinmen in West Beirut. Shamssddin was not hurl, but one of Ills odyguards tus killed and two others wereound-'1 atWb

12Director ofCosenza Prison shot and killed by tke "Rexolutionaty

Communist Committees. "In sis announcement of responsibility, the previously

unknown group indicated the murder wasvenge the killing of an alleged of Autonomla by police ihrce day* earlier.

West Germany: Bomb next to USlub ai Baebliagen defused. The bomb

was found after iis location -as reportedicarage in an anonymous telephone ->


ISGermany: Two leading RAF members senieated to life imprisonment. After

moath nial. both had been convicied or involvement in1 murdeit by the Red Army Faction of industrialist Hanrtt Martin Schleyer and financier Jurgen Pernio, among other crimes. Adclhetd Schult feeelvcd ihrcc eencurreni life

sentences and Rolf Clemens Wanner two. Wagner, however, will be returnedZontinueife sentence


ombs Lisbon propertyssociation. The bombingarliamentary debate over wheihcr toeni-frccic law that has been In eflcct for several years. There were no casualties, fjf^a-

Cypras: Bomb coasts modtrait damage to headauarters of Cyprus affiliate of Bxxoa. Local speculation tics the explosion eliher to the Uafi'eic of the UN resolution on Israeli actions in Lebanon orecently concluded labor dispute with the Exxon officials, slfjr

Bomb explodes at luachtime in crowdedilre restaurant, killing one and injuring It. Four Americans were slightly injured. No group claimed rapomlbility fojvihe incident, but ihc separatist Caribbean Rcvoluiionary Alliance ii suspected..1



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