NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY FOR SATURDAY 2 MARCH 1985

Created: 3/2/1985

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Ptoapocle

n/gh turnout In the provincial elections Thursday has relgtorced the credibility of President Zla's moves toward

Civilian ru'e'^m^

Thehe provincial balloting was greater thanpercent vote In the National Assembly elections earlier mis

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Most of the new delegates to the National Assembly are linked to conservative and religious parties or are drawn from tradition strong Interest groups such as landowners and piotcssionai.l^ 0 percent have or have had this to the Pakistan People's Parly men Zla removed (rom power. Fifty delegates are newcomers' whose political leanings are unknot -

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lia's hand has been strengthed by the favorable turnout and the election of many new assemblymen likely to be amenable lo his wishes, at least for the short term. He will have to move carefully, however, to avoid antegonQfngevival ct tneweak and dividedy ^

robably Is trying to gauge how much authority he can risk sharing. He probably will offer the Assembly some power over the budget end other domestic Issues but^yvill seek to_pircumscrlbo Its activity In defenso end foreign policy J

POLAND

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regime has no! yet respondedharply worded protest sent Dy the Episcopate two weeks agoalt to the anti-Church campaign. The government has yet to replyequest last month by Cardinal Glemp to meet with Premier/

Government officials warned they would prosecute priests who violate trie lawEpiscopate remains worried about provocaiive anlircglme sermons grven by activist priests. One such priest, whom Glemp has already banned from public oreacnlng, in Warsaw,Janow delivering "underground" sermons"

hi

appears determined to maintain his anti-ChurCh campaign tor awhile lo placate the.Soy lets end the Polish security service over the HopieluszKo .

The meeting with the Episcopate secretary, however, Indicates he is leaving his options open. Eventually Jaruzelskl probably will ease up on the campaign and resume the appearance ol trying to normalize conditions In Poland. Ho might want Church cooperation to helpoycotl of (ho parliamentary elections In October, foreeting bctwnnn Giamp aid Jaruzelskl wouldhaw In the relationship!

LEBANON-ISRAEL-US: Implications o! UN Vote

A US vetoN Security Council resolution condemning Israeli actions in southern LeDsnon may serveretext tor further violence by radical Shia elements against USthe hostages held by the Hizballah. The Lebanese Government plans toesolution crlttcal of the "iron fist" policy that the Israeli Army is pu/sulno. as It withdrawsebanon 1

;ommentjHarsn Israeli measures in response to continuing attacks

Israeli troops have provoked strong reactions (rem nearlythe Shias. Extremist elementswouldS veto as Implicit approval ot iheend (hey migfil use It to justify attacks on US personnelAnonymous telephone callers last September,represent "Islamictated that the car bombing of theAnnex In East Beirut wagjhei' response to me US veto ofLebanese

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USSR:hutdown

have to undertake a

controlled. Under atmosphere in

iG appears to be an unplanned shutdown becausexpected to reman the space) station later this month. To avoid tho possibility ot bad publicity that resulted from the uncontrolled reentry of the US Skytab space elation9oviet satellitehe Sovietsifficult mission to ensure met Saiyut-7'S

present conditions, approximately two years.'

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snsuro that Salyut-7's reentry Iswould reenter Earth's

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Special Analysis

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Parly Leader In Washington

Theselection ol Ukrainian parly Doss Vladimir Shcherbltskly lo head Ihe Supreme Soviet delegation that arrives In Washington tomorrow reflects Moscow's wish to appear both reasonable and tough on the eve of the arms control talks In QenevaJjj

Shcherbltsklyull member ol the Politburo and the highest ranking Soviet leader other than Foreign Minister Gromyko to visit the USrevious delegations usually have been headed by Politburo candidate member Ponomorev. The decision toull member probably was driven by the timing of the arms control talks. Moscow's Interest inlgh-havel reading ol US policymakers* altitudesvand the precedent ol aenlor parly secretary Gorbachev's, visit to London In December asheedimilar delegation)

Shcherbltskly ISfOrie of only four PoBtburo members other than Chernenko who hold official positions in the Supremeothers are Kazakh party leader Kunayev, Moscow party chief Gitshin. and senior party, secretarywho thus could have been candidateslp head the delegation. Gorbachev's Increased visibiiityejaaVRaWVhns been an Irritant to General Secretary Chernenko. and presumably lo Gorbachev's rivals, and may have weighed against his selection. Gorbachev himself may not have wantedoway from Moscow because of Chernenko's poor^ ,

in his public statements on btiaierai relations, Shchetbitskiy has been even more openly suspicious ol US intentions towerd the USSR than have some other Soviet leaders, such as Gorbachev. This attitude, combined with his senior position, probably recommended him to his Jlieagucs as the appropriale representative to send at ihis lime.

Emissary

Despite Sncnerbltsb.ly's apparent rigidity with respect to the US. he will be coming as an emissary of the Soviet leadership and may .choose to soft-pedal his natural Inclination joward toughness. faaa*>

_ speech he

delivered one bruaryTi nwhicti he was leas strident In his criticism of the US and emphasized the need for good will on both sloes at the Geneva arms negotiations!"

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Shcherbltskly has vigorously prosecuted Ihe campaign against dissidents In me Ukraine and established strict standards (or the appVovat ot Jewish emigration applications!

I He may be moreashington, however, in view oTihe renewed Soviet elfoit to remove US restrictions on bilateral trade. Shcherbitskiy probably will also stress the mutual advantages of US-Soviet trade, even though his writings Indicate that he believes the Soviets have become too dependent on Western tcc'i-.oicavJ ^ ^

Political

Shcrserbltsklys demonstrations of pontics) opportunism In recent years suggest ambitions tor higher oflice.rotege of former patty chief Brezhnev.sBWaasSupported efforts near ihe end of Brezhnev's tenure to bring KOBchlef Andropov Into the partymove that presaged Andropovjsselection as party chief over Brezhnev's favorite. Cherrtenko.

After Andropov's death, however, Shcherbitskiy is said to have backed Chernenko's candidacy for the top office. Now. as the end of Chernenko's tenure seems on the horizon. Shcherbitskiy already has begun to tone down his praise ol Ihe General Secretary, which suggests he Is again trying to position himself to best advantage. He probably hopes that his trip to Washington, which follows his slippage In recent protocol rankings, will shore up his political prospects.

Special Analysis

KOREA:

Walere Ahead

The return ot Kim Dae Jung and the strong showingew opposition party In the recent parllementary elections mark the beginningrltlcel period tor President Chun. The governmentas sought to appear responsive to opposition demand* lor dialogue and reform, but It haseadiness fa crec* down on activities that It believes threaten domestic stability. Opposition leaders, deeply suspicious of Chun's Intentions, are seeking to cspltnllto on the momentum of the elections and will preas hard tor fundamental political ;jetorms. When the university campuses reopen nett week, ell tho elements will be In place for a

ire concerned thai Ihe momentum behind caluifor profound reform will collide with hardliner policies urged on Chop by his most conservative advisers and generate an escalating Cycle of confrontation and reprisal. Perhaps with ifils gloomy assessment In mind, moderate alaments ki Chunks party have argued that genuine concessions'are neededeal with rising public asp-ratine for fundamental reform |

Eaty government actions have supported this line.

Newly appointed Prime Minister Lhooderate, already has met with the heads of the chlel opposition parties.

The new ruling party president. Roh Tea Woo. has calledialogue between the parties and possibly with dissidents Kim Dae Jung and Kim Young

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