NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY FOR SATURDAY 23 FEBRUARY 1985

Created: 2/23/1985

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YUGOSt AV'A-

Exchange ConiroU al Issue

Disputes among republic* about cenlrel controlt over foreign exchange haveajor lasue among Yugoslav leaders

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recent rrjrfrng by lha Constitutional Coon voided legislation that gave exporting llrms Ihe right to retain foreign exchangea right previously thought to have slammed in pnnc-ote from the constitutiona theictory lor officials who favor Increased centra* control, recto-res megovernment to draft substitutey the end

New legislation orobably Milompromise acceptable lo the ropubl.es. bul It Is noi likely to be worhco outimo to meet the deadline.pulo Is likely to fester for months and will aggravate the usual divisions emong lha regions ffPasiifc V- J

Despite ineftlcJenctes. the present system of oKocstmgnas been adequate lo ensure debt repayment andsome essential -mpom. Any measures that work againsthurt prospects lot seawg baJance-oc-payment proWemsaggravate public discontent

USSH-JOWOflN-

Uneasy Rets (ions

recent arms duel notwithstanding, the Soviets have been frustrated In their etlorts to capitalise on King Hussein's n/iapptness withSnfluence his O'h

USSR has begun delivering thehe SA-U. and otiiei air Celense woapoos lo Jordan under ihe arms agreement ol last December, but relations between thehave not moved forward. Citing. Syrian opposition to the accord signed by the King and PLO chief Arafat. Prevda on weonesCay criticized me two leaders lor blocking Arab ui Ity

Jordanians also believe trust Moscow is trying lo undermine the accord by rousing Arab oppositionss-t,

while Ihe arms negotiations were going on last November, Moscow supported Syria's opposition to Ararat's convening the Palestine National Conference in Amman. The Soviets' failure lo send Jin^jj^Mrverhe meeting further annoyed Ihe King as well as Aratat.

' Moscow Had Moped to parlay tbe arms agreement into closer ties with Jordan as part ot its overall eltort to improve relations with moderate Arabs. Although Moscow wanis lo gainmman, it ia more inlerested In blocking an mrjependenl Arab peace initiative that excludes Syria and Ihe USSR. This virtually ensures continued frictionan as long ai Hussein pursues his accord wtlh Arafat

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Hussein has (lined with Ihc USSR to spite the US lor denying (urn much-needed military equipment. His relations with Aralat and his interest in resolving the Palestinian problem, however,cecenceties ^iih Moscow .indeal improvement in relations l. ikci, vy 1>

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SHI LANKA-INDIA;

lo Rcfuga**

Minister GmnOhi yesterday assured Sri Lankan refugees of support and protect-on In Jamil Nadu and oioered increased j

petrols of coastal maters between the two countries

eek ol rising pressure from indran andl(|

provide 'unds lo caroforSrl Lankan 'arnil rekgees who hove Peer, lleeing the vKMenco In ncineri Sri lamtaaie of moreer day

it* rctucees may have reachedjring February placing severe strains on local resources taaanaVIV

Meanwhile. Sri Lankan Tamil separatist leaders, renewing claims tnai Ihe refugees are an international problem, called on the UN to accuse

CoIomDO ol

theme predominated when more lhanstudents marched earlier this week In Madurai in support of Tamil refugees and caned on Gandhi t<

rsemanas ior an in to* na tonalmay put pressure ono come back to the bargaining table out they am also meantluenc* New De.'hi to consider militaryGandhi, however, like his mother, strongly opposes inlernationallrlno wtiet heegional issue. Mis quick promise of support to the relugeos probably is aimed at defusing Sri Lankan Tamil effortsnvolve outside powershc eflal' Ha also has ruled oui. for Ihe lime being, the possibility o' Indian intervention

countries wfl continue to try toavtary rncden' but>nd>an patrolling and Sri Lankan nawatarrow Pa* Siredash eveneryecognition Ol thai danger. Colombo has renewed its call for joint patrols. and New Delhi has. for iho first time, said ll will considerm'c

sOruary

i.nc BeaoWe on INF

Ministerietermination to push lorward with INF

eing lesiedsw'e from his party to put of!Sccia'

Christians are camng (o- MaienTToecision to accept3 rqs-pcnrmcn? ol inlvajdeployment from March todecisions have been

'irTiindii'La timet win consider INF policy over the weekend

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i ll Brussels delays lis March deployment commitment, ll risfca new liareupa ol CaOlnet disunity or Flemish Social Christian nervousness, especially In light ol slepped-up peace demonstrations and possible Soviet gestures on arms control Since nis visit to Washington in January. Marlens has been able lo Keep the Social Christians behind *NF. and he probably will be able to continue to do so. He can argue that deployment on schedule not only meets NATO cbligaltons out also willapal visit In Mayand the summer rshadow INF before the election aaafaata*

ALGERIA-MOROCCO. Compromise Proposal on Western Sahara

proposed to King Hassan

a compromise solution to ine Western Sahara conUlct.would control its internal affairs white Hassan would beruler and represent ihe Soharens in international hase Algcinn

proposal because It gives the Saharans the essential attributes of

sovereignty-local autonomy, membership In injemat-pnal .

organizations,odified MoroccanHHPaar* X? '}

e recent talks between Algeria and Morocco haveover longstanding differences on Ihe definitionen sovereignty. Strong nationalist feelings amongcontrol of the Sahara make Hassan reiuclon; toprobably has made its offer in order to demonstrateand to persuade the US and France to urge HassanDespite Rabat's rejection of the oiler, both sloescontinue discussions to prevent tensions ovc- ine SahararmsucescalatingillasriJ

KUWAIT: Election Result!

volcrs reioctod mosl o' the incumbent candidates runninglo trie National Assembly Wednesday.Including the loimer Speaker ol Ihe Assembly relig^oos fundamentalists, and conservative Qedooln lost therejected p'o-

Khomoin* candidates inof moderates. Ihe big winner, as expected, was the Democrat* Bloc, which Ircfudes oid-itne Arab nationalists andampaigned as the country's only nonsecierlan grouping SasassaVVJ

v J asBasWaBBtThe Sat ah government nowore vocal and lass cooperative Assembly The Democratic Bloc capitaaJed on popufta* disaatistaction with tha government's hanalog of the economy end will pursueg-ams lha government probably win find unpalatable The Assembly will continue to spout islamic rhetoric, but the fundamentalist tide appears lo have peaked as the Iranian terrorist threat has grown The Amir will try to sliow sens'trvlly to vole' concerns byew cabinet, andew prime minister. In the nnxl two weekr>lff0$MaWtk?

In Bricl

election speecneasserts thai space end nuclea*

arms must Be considered together inagreement

"quiteS respects USSR's security interests,ttempt at military superiority nouh) dim prospects

Is strong that Soviets will display Condor transport at Paria Airay and June requested ramp spaco lor "largest transport aircraft would be drat appearance ol Condor outside USSR.

> Polish authorities last week began forma, investigaiion o* Walesa for illegal union activities and promoting publicould get five year--. rosecutorn decide not to bung case to trial 4bbbbbbbbsbb*'

Polish Government to announce Occnuons today on price

increases due inconomic grievances and unhapptnas* aboutharassment ot church may prompt wider response toall for protests on TliurscayafSBMpi 3

Yugoslav Foreign Minister arrives today In Iraq alter Algeriaxpected lo go to United Arab Emirates Tuesday, probably to establish formalugoslavia trying to strengthen nonallgned standing, cultivate Arab markelsif^-

ii

contm

tnricck'd'US mmtary falning program lasteacting to criticism in recent human rightserest dependence on USSR and Hs allies for security assistance^

WesternParliament will elect new Greek president on

Karamanlls likely to win reelection with combined supportand Socialistarly schedulingneilonat ajtsajtsoa Before Octet**

ret

. toes v.

Turkey, in abrupt sn.fl. sen Bulgaria curt note protesting torcedol Tork<sn nwvwlty plans propagandaslama; world and may rant* issue at UN.^BHbV ^

LEBANON-SYRIA-ISRAEL

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for Ihe Hizballah

Thea Hizballah movement probebly will continueWear Beirut and In the Bekea vaiiry.ill

pursue Its campaign of anti-Israeli violence In the south. Expanding lit Influence in the areaa ot predominaetlf Shia southern Lebanon being vacated by Israel, however, will be dlUlcult. The Hizballehore visible political role in Lebanon, but Ihe demonstration It sponsored in Sidon provoked opposition from Syria andide variety ol moderate Lebanese factional leaders. Southern Lebanontronghold ol the moderate Shle Amal organltstlon. and the pro-Iranian movement may have only limitedIsraeli ecliont further radicalize the southern

Fundamentalist leaders are determined to make the Hizballah tne dominant political movement In the Snia community. They areampaign lo challenge and displace Amal ana its leader. Nabih Barri.

Hizballah, which has pursued its oO|#clives primarily through tero'ism. religious aided'.nation, and sooai wei'a'ene Shia corrvnunrty. publishedst comcehenstve poetical manifesto last weekpage document cans tor the establishment o! an islamic repubttc and the removal cl a'lnctjs'acniiijrncc Irom Lebanon, according lo press repO'ts tjMfepVQby

has succeeded

sgtiih^anTpow" bese In West Beirut and in ihe Bekaa VaKey Poverty, unomoovmanl. and the widespread feeing of

potties'n tne Vumi of Beirut wat continueake increas-ng numbers of Shias there sosceptirrte to eatremist rretofn^datf ^

ar stronger man (ho pro-Iranian groups In ihe south, parity because Amal originated Iho'e and because Amal guemlias nave been (he most active in attacking Israeli occupation feces The southerners traditionally have been more affluent and less prone to religious extremism Shias in the south also have imin history ol conflict with theli Cnnsllan and Sunm iieiQhbors.fjPHV V? S

Most residents of SkJot. reacted angrily lo tne large demonstrstion siaged by Bevui-basad Maoaaan members last Monday Christian. Sunni. and moderate Shia leaders called the Hizballah show ot force an isolated incident thai would not characterize the south alter the Israeli withdrawal.

appeal of the Hizballah among southern Shias would be Strang the ned. however, by heavyhanded Israeli retaliation during theas the dragnetix Shia villages on Thuraday. Prospects tor ihe pro-Iranian groups also will Improve over time it Amal leader Barn and ihe Lebanese Government fall to deliver nn Shia demands lor political and economicenerally 'assjaaaaaaj^pajaBSBB^imat Lebanese Government ol'c-ais a'-eady worried about the growing strength of the Hizballah in the south

Outlook

The popularity ot the Hizballah in West Beirut and the Bewaaa threat to the Lebanese Government lor theregarcaass o* the success ol fundamentalist attorts Inteadera will continue to influence events inviolence, mass demonstrations, political pressure,against-j

The Hizballah is well armed, extremely dangerous, and Implacably determined. It will exploit any opportunity lo expand its base ol support in the south its activists thereely wl"ooning gue/rata operations against the withdrawing Israeli Amv and possibly eventually against northern Israel

Special Analysis

Ou'look

The nonparty national ana provincial elections next Mondaywill give President Zla another political victory.voter turnout is expected despiteoycott, and theot likely toantt-Zln violence

Zia hopes the electionssincepermit him io claim he has restored democratic insiitulions. Forbidding parlies to pariicipste, he hopes, will destroy the existing party structure and end the influence ol the Pakistan People's Party, the major opposilion group. He fears Its leaders, particularly the late Prime Minisler Bhutto's daughter, Benazir, will move to avenge Bhutto if they returned to powei assVJaV V7

Zia's decision to hold elections nowesponse lo Army concerns thai military rule has hurt Its standing and diverted manpower and resources from Us external security ^

At Ihe same lime. Ihe Army has insisted its inleresls be protected during the transition to civilian rule. Zia has sought lo satisfy such concerns by retaining the presidency. He also said he will reduce the power of the Prime Minister and the National Assembly andational Security Council that gives the military the right to monitor Ihe Assembly. asaWaa* y

When ihe main religious party, many conservatives, and even some members of the People's Parly decided to participate in the elections, the Opposition lost Its only reolrsllc prospect loroycott and embarrassing Zia. The government has arrested many opposition leaders, banned press coverage ol their activities, and seems onfident it can suppress attempts to disrupt votincssBBBBauatsML >

Oullook

Most candidates are running for the first time, campaigning on local issues and drawing on local ties, so it will take time to determine tneir stance on national Issues. Zla supporters, however, will be strong enoughie assemblies Irom pursuing condor it.it ion. at leasi

lBunspBnBS'

Chronic regional, ethnic, and religious divisions, however, will continue encouraging the opposition anil deprivingt the stable governing consensus heBIaVtfpVlanBBtflu

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