NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY FOR FRIDAY 8 FEBRUARY 1985

Created: 2/8/1985

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Rumor* Undercut Chemenko Poland-USSR: Impact ol Trial

Algaila-Morocco: Political end Military Maneuvering

Vletnam-ASEAN-Cambodla: Diplomatic Offensive

Lebanon: Stila Modoratos Turn Toward Radicalism

In Brlel Special Analyses

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Cuba: Economic Realities Prompt Policy Changes

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8 february tsis

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Undercut Chernenho

Soma SoviatBl

epreadlng reports that Churnanko'e cutler is Imiiitnant. apparently In an effort to undermine htm politically.

Ilia! Chernon

woukl relinquish one c( histhai ofCommilteo plenum

laieprle

oirtburoien for CnernerSb To retie as party chtaf wnue retoJnlng the presidency, and tor Gorbachev to become generalaWe<PBSi.

he past week. In contrast, some Soviet ofllclais haveCherrvsnko Is recovering and remains luily in charge ol thethe aama period all Soviet leaders who have madespeeches'or the RSFSR Supreme Soviet havepersonal greetings to their constituents, and somepraise*j

I The predictions of Chernenko's ouster suggest at least an effort to encourage speculation that he win step down soon, pemaps with the object of forcing the succession process In an ettempl to preempt emergenceandidate from the Old Guard. The fact thai the reports generally depict Gorbachev as Chernenko's successor may Indicate either that they are botng floated by Go'baohovor that someone wants It to appear that Gorbachev Is plotting against Chernenko. Gorbachevs rival. Origorry Romanov. Is the party secretary who oversees the KGB and might direct auchananvav.

suorm^m^ orta on Chernenko's

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POLAND-USSF:

of Trial

Failure tooefn penally tor Ihe killing ofplua Ihe ettecka made agelntt the church duringprobably neve eroded whatever credibility thmby trying tour aecretJ

year sentences given Plotrowski and hts suPer.or in me inie/tor Ministry ere ine maximum punishment, short ol the death penalty, for ptemcditated murder.yenr terms tor the othor two accomplices arc the maximum sentencos forBBfeBe*

es'h

sentence, at least for PiotrowsKI. ihc chief perpetrator of the crime. Some wfthm tho church had argued thai the episcopate should not ash for clemency It hoeath sentence. On Wednesday. Iheecretary formally protested (he attacks made against tho church and Popioiuszko during the 3

The prisoners have seven days to appeal. The prosecution. Including the auxiliary prosecutors representing the priest's famHy. have Ihe ngm to appeal any reduction ol tne sentencosigher court. The family's lawyer told Western reporters yesterday, however, that he IS satisfied with Ihe sentences.">

Meanwhile. TASS com man led on ihe trial yesterday Before the vcroiets were announced. The report briefly crlttcbed the murderolitical provocation, but faRed fo Identify trie cofcrdants as secret policemen and attributed the prleet'a deathcolncMicnce of tragict focused Its heaviest attacks on ihe Polish clergy and Western subversion, accusing some clerics of anti-Soviet

Comment The sentences could provoke some spontaneous gatneringa'ln churches and especfaily at Popfehjsjkos grave, but the Polish puDltc probaofy will read with subdued cynicism Although some clones may be angered by the sentences, the church Is likely to tryampen populur reaction by preaching that luetics has been served |

Tho TASS commentary reflects Moscow's desire to containto the Polish security appa'atus while using the murderIhe role of

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LEBANON: Shis Moderates Turn Toward Radiceliam

The popularity ofrsrilari Hizballah fucdamcriloi'alaushing Shis Amal loader Nablh Barri lo adopt increasingly radical positions.ast Beirut rally on Wednesday. Barri promised to launch SO suicide attacks against Israel: troops in southern Lebanon and to pay saianes to anthtsraeli guerrillas.mal, which organized the rally, displayed radical Shiacn >osters of Ayatollah Khomeini alongside those ot Barr.f-

Barri almost certainly hopes to use extremist rhetoric and fundamentalist symbols to strengthen Amal's position among the Shias. The rising popularity ot the radical movement has been eroding support for Barri over the past year. Many Shias regard Amal as Ineffectual and corrupt, but Increasingly see the Hizballah as committed to Shia goals at Lebanon. Barri needs to improve his fundamentalist credential! Delete the Amel Politburo elections this spring. tfraaVMaassW^

In Briuf

Alia

Europe

Airline service between

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East

0yeed Muslim Jurists late last month to use nacoenaent lodgment In decisions on modernonts Hfixibillly by religious establishment towarduchreempt religious conservatives will pfeaso technocrols.

Africa

North Yemen has tentatively awarded Crifling concession lo US onrea0 square kilometers located west ol recent discovery by another USill furtner strengthen Norm Yemen's tiei to .

Jordanian press says PLC Executive Committee decided Tuesday against Jordanian-Palestinian peace Initiative at this time, though talks will continue ing Hussein wanted joint prcpcsajbcfore Egyptian President Mubarak's visit to USjn'.taaflaasasaT'

Iranian Consultaiive Assembly Speaker Befsanjnnl yesterday confirmed Syrian President Assad to visit Tehranersian Quit Arab states hope Assad wtll suggest mediating end loatsanlanTs remarks, however. Indicate Iran remains agalnsl this.

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Special Anolyslu

Realltlaa Prompt Policy Changes

mounting economic problems and Soviet criticism ol Havana's economic management ptobebtT era behind Fidel Castro's recent emphatic on reducing tentlona with the OS. on securing greater access to Western mmrketi. aad on carrying out auatarlt, measures at home. The punitive action feftan last month against two high-ranking part, hardliners, pratumaBt, lor opposing Castro's potto, ahlUa.nother signesurgence b, the pragmalteta In Ihe Cuben leederthtp. Theia leaders ma, counsel Caalro to reduce his support to lorelgn radical groups and to reduce tensions with the US, but hit recent public statements indicate that ha remains unwilling to modify his tiesMCOy or renounce his commitment lo armea revolution.

Havana gambled (all yearurst of spending on Imports ana government construction protects would stimulate sustained economic growth. Atinouon moderate growth .as attained, it became clear by the time of the CEMA meeting In HaveneHast October that Cuba could no longer afford to stimulate the economy through

Castro Declares Economic War

Pollowtng the CEMA meeting. Castroeeting of the top leadership to review the country's economic difficulties and revise5 economic plan quIcWy. He called on all Cubans to wage an "economic war" aoalnal waste and inefficiency, and warned them i

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The thrust of the new economicexports to the West, meeting trade commitments to Communis! countries, and limiting imports of consumerCuba's need to save foreign exchange. The new focus on austerity and conservation measures, however, probably will result in oecSrWng real growth.

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