Created: 10/31/1985

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Special Analysis


arlies arm feeding as Gueremafana prepare lo go Co Ihe polls Sunder lo elect Ihe tirtt civiliannears. No candidate appears ab'e roa/only, however,ecember. Whoever wins millie tie* ro rhe US and will lobby (or subs fanconomic and military

Eight presidentials are running, and election rules require Ihe winner to have an absolute majority orunott with tho number-two There areolitical parties competinghe new congress and for ruridieds oi municipal offices. Tne new sovernrrteni is scried-Jed lo lake otliceive-year termanuary. ( |

The Campaign

postpone or delay eleciions In any event, few substanlrvelhe *ron|-runners. The campaign has been conductednconomicions. but the major contendersutile more lhan vagje nconomic panaceas For ils part,has kept Its promise lo irnnaki impartial end has refusedany candidate

The front-Runners

Vinlcio Cercro Arevato of the Chilsdan Democratic Party is the clearenter-lell si who has assured lhe rrilitsry herespeel lis interests, who confines his econonki relorms lo such moderatemproving lax co lection, and who is unliiiely to fry more extensive and poiiticairy nsxy austerity or land reform measures.

Jorge Carpio Nlcoile of the Maiionai Ccnirisi Union-awno has aoughi lo appeal io all butaccording todata.

Divisions wllhm nls party and his lack ol personalave hurl his



j among ihe lesser candidates. Jorge Tomocratfc Parly of National Cooperation is Ihe mosl serious political threat lo Cerero and Carpjo. He has run an afloresslve campaign (hai al lhe very leasi wis give him considerable leverageunoff and might push him inio second place on -he first ballot. Cerezo reportedly believes Scraro wouldougher opponenlunoff thsr Carpio

Polls show the ultrafightiat candidatetislam fourih, bul (he party si ill is likely loic.relliam number of congressional seais.

Ihe Insurgenls

Leitist Insurgents have noi seriously disrupted the electoralearlier reported plans toampaign nl larro-ism


rave been iimtaa to mmiKMun wacks ana prppagawoa-actlviy against Ihe election In rural areas and mat they lack me aofiiry lo disrupt voting seriously inreas Nevertheless, isolated acts of violence to intimidate voters and cast doubl on Ihe legitimacy ol lhe election probably will occur. i


mmiary at

A runoff between Cerezo and Carpio Is likely lo be close Each, nowever, roccgniies the fragility of Ihe elecloral process as well as Ihe sensillvities ol Ihe miliiary and is Hkeiy lo try lo keephln tolerable bound "

A second-place snowing byalready has claimed lhai the military is rigging Ihe election againstprecpitatea political crisis. The armed forces view him as politically unacceptable.

Al three major candidates support lhe Contadora process bul will probably slay on the sideline Carpio and Serrano are more skeptics ol SandLnisra iniernions lhan isbut probabfy see nejoliailons ai ways to improve relatione wilh Mexico and return tointernal ional scene. Ail ihree lavo- closer lies lo lhe US and are CO^nilng on large illusions of economic artel meilnrv aid lo ail Iherave economic problems

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