IA - INDICATIONS OF POLITICAL INSTABILITY IN KEY COUNTRIES

Created: 11/1/1985

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The I'inixhelacing growing prcsmri; io speed up ihc transition io civilian rule

Tbe national accordeturn to democracy, promulgated by ihe head uf the Catholic Church aadeading panic* in laic August, has attracted wppori

Pinochet ordered early retirement for severalleaden who have criticized his policie* and his inirarui|cncc toward the moderatei*>i

A spreading scandal over death squad activities ha* eroded morale ia the police, aggravated bickering arrant iht kxuiiiv services, arrd provoked public outra ge-1

The Pinochet regime, beset with increasing internalhe moit lerious opposition challenge inchallenge thai could, over the next year or *o, tertoaily erode ihe President's power. Theopposition's flexibleeven by some within the militaryomentum that we judge will be extremely difficult to stop if he remains intransigent.

The still-fragile unity of the national accordthreatened by regime elToruivide and discreditprobably be shored up by the endorsementinning from all sectors. Since lateroad spectrum of parties, numerousaisociatkifu aad interest groups, most of ihe media,rowing list of key public figures-including many former regimespoken for theecently launched rwtiilots-signing campaign directed al the general public is contribul-iegbe percepikm ibatecoming isolated as support for him dwindles. While promoter, of ihc accord nay thai meal of iheir point* arethey insist on concrete liberation ion mca*urc*vuch as allowing panic* to function jndcivil liberties. CanJina^reMjo^jcud of theChurch, hasn*

government toi* Ml

Pinochei would be under only minor threat front thr. activity, except that hi. major cuitstiluciKN. ihcs being swaved byrowing sentiment in the ar barraclu.ood was underscored in earlywhen the airember of ihe junta publicly

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Iihew: forces finally play Mil "ill depend on Pinocheir. To due. he has shown no flexibility toward the moderate opposition's proposalcgo-llated transition. In typical fashion, he has responded to critics within the military by forcing resignation* and demanding unswerving loyalty. At ibe same lime, however, he i* exhibiting concern that he may lose thee gives frequent press interviews lo defend hi* polkics and hasurvey of military attitudes toward the accord.oves and his history of moderating when urged to do so by senior officer* lead u* to believe Pinochet will eventually agree topeeded up transition. Should he continue to stonewall -insisting on no political change until-vie believeiccrs willim and deal directly with the opposition in discussions brokered by the (jrom.il

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